Economy

By almost every historical indicator, the US is clearly approaching a debt crisis. The federal government’s aggregate liabilities now exceed its gross domestic product. The annual interest required to service federal obligations is greater than what Congress spends each year on defense. And projected annual deficits for the next decade are well ahead of estimated revenues by more than $2 trillion. Many state legislatures are deeply underwater as well, despite receiving generous Covid related bailouts from President Biden’s 2021 American Rescue Plan Act. California’s temporary $100 billion surplus in 2022, for example, has morphed into a projected deficit of $68 billion over the next two years.

Bernie Sanders is the bottomless cup of bad ideas. He keeps refilling it. Take his latest venti, a law that says everybody gets to work thirty-two hours for forty hours pay. That’s a magical 25 percent pay increase. His next trick is to pull free steak dinners out of a hat. What do you think would actually happen if such Bernie’s law were passed, enforced and found constitutional? (None of those would actually happen, of course.) The immediate effects would be another 25 percent price increase for labor-intensive products, a huge burden on low-income consumers and an additional incentive to replace more expensive workers with machines and computers.

It’s a familiar response whenever the National Weather Service warns of a Category 5 hurricane, a life-threatening winter blizzard or some other looming natural disaster. Government officials urge local citizens to seek shelter immediately, while promising that area police will keep guard to ensure that looters do not use the emergency to rob boarded-up homes and abandoned stores. Today, Americans are being warned to brace for another kind of storm, one involving not the weather but their personal finances.

With the current inflation rate still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0 percent target, it is only natural that critics of President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) treated its recent one-year anniversary as an opportunity to once again stress that the bill never had anything to do with inflation. Biden himself has finally admitted as much. But what has received almost no attention is the degree to which big spending programs like the IRA — whose estimated cost has already spiraled up from $384.9 billion to $1.5 trillion — will further erode America’s social safety net. Especially the Medicare hospital insurance fund (Medicare Part A), which its trustees say will be depleted in 2031, and Social Security, which runs out of money just three years later, in 2034.

Cockburn has been mulling over in his mind a gloomy new report about his retirement prospects. “In a July poll conducted jointly by Axios and Ipsos,” the Hill writes, “29 percent of workers under fifty-five answered a retirement query with, ‘I don’t think I will ever retire.’ Asked why not, three-quarters of the never-retire group said they could not afford to stop working. A smaller share said they didn’t want to.” With inflation doing a number on folks’ 401ks and future inflation fears rising, Cockburn is not surprised by people’s responses to this poll (except for those who don’t want to stop working — seek mental evaluation). Still, he wonders: what does our future workforce look like if it’s composed of geriatric personnel refusing or unable to retire?

Walmart has reportedly stopped using Yellow as the shipping company stares down bankruptcy and a major strike by the International Brotherhood of Teamsters. Craig Fuller of FreightWaves tweeted that Walmart was one of Yellow’s largest customers, meaning their exit will cost the company dearly. The implosion of Yellow could magnify the impact of any potential IBT strike against UPS, which alone could have ground the US economy to a halt. Yellow had received a $700 million federal loan during the Covid pandemic, but has run into challenges paying it back, and the New York Times reports that the company had $1.5 billion in debt in March 2023.

If you’re the sort who rarely checks your 401K and other investment accounts, you may be blissfully unaware of what a dismal year (plus) its been for the stock market. Many prominent media personalities, particularly ones on CNBC, promised us that Biden would be a boon to the stock market because Trump was too erratic. But while the market started hot in 2021, it's mostly been ice cold ever since, with a few fake rallies thrown in to tease us. How bad has the Biden era been for stocks? Consider some numbers I crunched prior to the market opening on December 12.

The Great Resignation continues, with a new study revealing that employees in many industries are quitting at higher rates than 2021. Accommodation and food services lost 5.8 percent of its workforce — 773,600 workers — in 2022, an increase of about 128,000 over the same period in 2021. Retail lost 3.82 percent, or about 600,000 workers, though this is 109,000 fewer than the same period in 2021. In third is the entertainment sector at 3.58 percent, accounting for 82,200 jobs, rising 7,000 compared to 2021. These industries happen to be where employees are in closest contact with customers — which would probably cause Cockburn to quit too, given how rude folks can be. Manufacturing and mining, by contrast, saw 2.42 and 2.3 percent respectively.

To all of the bitter skeptics who doubted President Joe Biden, Treasury secretary Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve, I have a message for you: come forth now with your most heartfelt apologies. For a few months the Ivy League know-it-alls had to back-pedal their claims that inflation was transitory. But that changed this week. After months of ridicule, it is Joe Biden and his team of Nobel Laureates (all seventeen of them) who are getting the last laugh. Inflation changed faster than anyone could have imagined. In fact, according to the White House, we went from 9.1 percent inflation in June to 0 percent inflation in July. Joe Biden — as pleased with himself as ever — couldn’t wait to break the news to the American people.