Covid-19

Labour is unhappy with the government's plan for unlocking, with leader Sir Keir Starmer calling it 'reckless'. In the Commons this afternoon, shadow health secretary Jon Ashworth and then shadow education secretary Kate Green complained about the statements from their ministerial counterparts. Ashworth treated fellow MPs to the slightly bizarre spectacle of him waving a paper Sajid Javid had written on pandemics while at Harvard, which seemed an incongruous political stunt. All the more discordant is the party's stance on unlocking, which seems to be to complain about it happening while offering a plan that isn't vastly different.

Sajid Javid’s parallel statement in the Commons to Boris Johnson’s press conference on the government’s plan for unlocking drew the same criticisms about failing to protect the vulnerable and bowing to Tory backbench pressure. He did get a ‘hallelujah’ from one such backbencher as he spoke of the end of social distancing. But the health secretary faced anger from the opposition benches about the decision to leave mask wearing up to the public and businesses at a time when cases are rising. Green MP Caroline Lucas compared Covid restrictions to road safety laws, asking why a similar approach to the speed limit couldn’t be taken to mask-wearing.

When the cabinet met on Tuesday, ministers agreed that once the roadmap is complete the country will be able to live with Covid — even if cases continue to rise. The implication is that so long as the vaccines continue to work, there will be no going back after 19 July. There is increased optimism over that date as the day of the final easing. It is, in part, out of necessity.  Not only are Tory MPs on the rampage about the four-week delay from 21 June, but ministers also sense a growing backlash among the public over the half and half rules which mean full capacity for the Wimbledon final yet leave restaurants only able to fill a portion of their capacity.

Crises often exhaust the capacity of governments to renew themselves. All consuming problems do not allow prime ministers to have what Walter Bagehot called ‘mind in reserve’ — and yet future success at the polls depends on it. The vast achievements of the postwar Labour government were largely built on the work of a Liberal in the form of the 1942 Beveridge Report, which most notably recommended a National Health Service. But Attlee was unable to create a new vision of his own during an era of crippling rationing and economic strife. Labour went from winning their first overall majority in 1945 to a very slim majority in 1950. Churchill’s Conservatives were returned to power within a year.

How much trouble is Matt Hancock in? The Sun splashes this morning on the Health Secretary’s affair with aide Gina Coladangelo. The paper has obtained screen grabs from leaked Whitehall CCTV footage showing very little the way of social distancing. The images are from the start of May, when laws were still in place to enforce social distancing. Hancock has issued a brief statement this morning, apologising for breaking the rules: ‘I accept that I breached the social distancing guidance. I have let people down and am very sorry. I remain focused on working to get the country out of this pandemic and would be grateful for privacy for my family on this personal matter.

In some senses, life in Britain is slowly returning to normal. Thousands of people gathered to watch Royal Ascot last week. Next week is Wimbledon, where 15,000 fans will pack into centre court to watch the finals. Meanwhile at Euro 2021, up to 65,000 people are expected to attend the tournament's climax at Wembley. It’s wonderful to see these sporting events back. However, it is deeply troubling that this ‘can do’ attitude doesn't seem to apply to events holding equivalent significance in children’s lives. The end of what has been a historically troubled school year is upon us.

Covid has doomed the public finances — not just because the cost of mitigating it has been high in itself but because it has normalised high public spending. When you have just allocated £37 billion to Test and Trace and spend £54 billion on the furlough scheme, a £106 billion high-speed railway to Manchester and Leeds looks relatively good value — at least taxpayers will have something lasting for their money. And who would even notice if the budget for that railway quietly crept up by a further £1.7 billion? That is exactly what has happened today. The construction costs of the first phase of the railway, from London to Birmingham, have apparently been increased by social distancing.

The third wave of Covid-19 may now be no more deadly than a typical wave of influenza (thanks to vaccines) but be in no doubt: the rise in cases is real, likely to continue for some time and may dwarf the second wave. It may still be safe to unlock against this backdrop, but this (very different) scenario would need properly explained, with self-isolation rules rewritten. The facts have changed, but the argument has not (yet) changed. We've been tracking the emergence of the India/Delta variant on The Spectator's data hub. The below is a summary of the likely direction of travel. It has taken the UK from having the lowest Covid case levels in Europe to having the highest in just a few weeks - with much more still to come.