Covid-19

The Port of Dover has been closed, with freight as well as passengers unable to cross the Channel, due to the new strain of Covid concentrated in London and the South East. So how long before supermarket shelves are empty? A lot depends on the behaviour of British consumers.  As has been proved on a number of occasions, such as with lavatory paper at the beginning of the spring lockdown and with petrol during the fuel protests in 2000, you don’t need an actual shortage of goods to result in apparent shortages – panic-buying can lead to empty shelves within hours, if people are minded to stock up their freezers and larders to a level they would not normally do.  Yet Britain really is painfully dependent on imports of many kinds of food.

When schools returned in September, the sudden spike in demand for Covid-19 tests caught the test and trace programme out. Dido Harding, head of NHS test and trace, told MPs back then that demand was 'significantly outstripping the capacity we have'. It was a predictable situation – but has the government learned its lesson? Sadly, it appears not.  With Christmas only a week away, Brits have taken heed of the warnings not to give anything nasty to granny when they sit down for lunch on the big day. Unsurprisingly, many are keen to get tested as a result. University students are also returning home in their droves, adding extra demand for tests. And the recent spike in infections has also put the test and trace programme under strain.

Last week, Katy Balls and I interviewed Rishi Sunak for the Christmas issue of The Spectator (out today) and his comments on debt have caused some interest in today’s newspapers. As ever with such interviews, there’s only so much you can squeeze into two pages but I thought it worth elaborating on his position today. I suspect it will come to define the political debate next year: yes, 2020 was a year of almighty splurge. Sunak has borrowed more in ten months than Gordon Brown did in ten years: but there was a pandemic. The question is how you get that back to normal. For a surprising number of Tories, it’s a question of 'whether' you get it back to normal. Why not let debt rip? Let it go from today’s 100 per cent of GDP to 120 per cent or even 150 per cent?

Boris Johnson is taking a gamble with his decision to stick with the easing of Covid restrictions for Christmas. The gamble is that people will suddenly start adhering to government guidance and severely restrict their contact with their families, even though the law does not force them to do so. Although, as the Prime Minister argued at this afternoon's press conference, the government's current level of involvement in people's lives is probably the strictest since Cromwell, it remains the case that it has repeatedly concluded this year that it has to force people to restrict their social contact, rather than ask them – whether that’s nicely or in the current special stern voice that ministers have decided to adopt.

It's become a regular refrain to hear that Brexit talks have been extended. Now the same applies to negotiations over the Christmas Covid rule relaxation. After various scientific advisers warned the UK government against going ahead with its planned five day relaxation of the rules (which would see three household permitted to gather together), representatives for the four nations discussed the policy on a call this evening. The result? No decision as of yet. As things stand, there has been no agreed change to the rules. Instead one source on the call tells the BBC:  'There was broad recognition commitment has been made to people and they will expect us to honour it – but there is a need to be stronger and clearer in guidance and messaging'.

Should we worry about the emergence of a new variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes Covid-19? News of the new variant – which, it seems, might transmit more easily than previous versions – was the big surprise of Matt Hancock’s statement to the Commons this afternoon. The other big announcement – that London and parts of Essex and Hertfordshire will be going into Tier 3 – was a foregone conclusion. As I wrote here in May, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has already mutated once into a form that might be more transmissible. This could possibly explain why Europe and North America have found it harder to contain the virus than have Asian countries. Were we fighting a slightly different disease to the one which emerged in Wuhan in January?

From Monday, the guidance for self-isolation is changing. Previously if you were told by officials (or the NHS app) you had been in close contact with someone who tested positive for Covid-19, you were expected to self-isolate for 14 days. Starting next week, this will be reduced to 10 days, and will also apply to those returning from 'high risk' travel areas that are not on the UK's 'green list'. The update was issued as a joint statement from the UK chief medical officers, who said: 'after reviewing the evidence, we are now confident that we can reduce the number of days that contacts self-isolate from 14 days to 10.' This brings the quarantine period for close contacts in line with those who test positive for Covid-19.