Covid-19

England’s third national lockdown is an avalanche of news, affecting just about every bit of our lives. It’s a lot for anyone to grasp, but that’s still not an excuse for the fact that, once again, young people studying for technical qualifications such as BTECs have been ignored and let down. According to the Association of Colleges, around 135,000 students are due to take assessments or sit exams in colleges this week: some exams are due today. And while the Prime Minister in his televised address last night talked about school and the need to cancel summer exams such as GCSEs and A-levels, the Government currently considers that BTEC tests should still go ahead this week. Not that the kids taking those tests would have learned that from the PM.

Boris Johnson has announced a third national lockdown to last until at least the middle of February. But there are more stated exemptions than in the first lockdown. The new laws are expected to follow shortly, while the formal advice is below:  ● You must not leave home without a ‘reasonable excuse’. This will be put in law with fines for non-compliance ranging from £200 (for a first offence) to £6,400. ● Work — You can go to work 'where it is unreasonable for you to do your job from home'. The examples given are 'critical national infrastructure, construction or manufacturing' but the advice says it’s 'not limited to' those jobs. Workers such as cleaners will still be able to go to work.

­­During the battle against Covid-19, the government’s priority has been to ensure that schools remain open. Their rationale has been that closing schools would threaten children’s life chances. Covid’s risk to children, ministers argued, is relatively low while the cost of stunted learning is severe. But the new variant has changed that calculation. Prior to this mutation, children accounted for only a small percentage of Covid-19 infections and therefore keeping schools open was a reasonably safe course of action. Now case rates are rapidly increasing to previously unseen heights, leaving the NHS creaking at its seams.

How likely are you to be reinfected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus for a second time? It is a pertinent question because, at present, all government policy is predicated on the assumption that developing Covid-19 cannot be relied upon to offer you any immunity from reinfection whatsoever. Remember the Prime Minister telling us from his Number 10 flat, where he was incarcerated for 10 days after being ‘pinged’ by NHS Test and Trace, that it didn’t matter that he had already had the disease and must be ‘bursting with antibodies’ – he had to do his duty and self-isolate nonetheless?

There have been many shocking sights in this cursed year. For me, one of the most shocking has been the sight of comfortably off, Oxbridge-educated experts and journalists agitating for the closure of schools even though they know this will hit poor kids hardest. This alarmingly cavalier attitude towards the education of the less well-off has exposed the class tensions that lurk behind the lockdown. Once again, depressingly, school closures are back on the agenda. SAGE says the only way we can get the current wave of Covid infections under control is by enforcing a proper lockdown, including the closure of schools and universities. Many in the media, long smitten with SAGE, agree.

As expected, the government has just announced more areas of England are to move to Tier 4 from Boxing Day in an attempt to slow the spread of the new variant of coronavirus. But rather more unexpectedly, Health Secretary Matt Hancock told this afternoon's Downing Street press conference that a second, highly transmissible, new strain which 'appears to have mutated further' has been found in two people who were contacts of cases who had travelled from South Africa over the past few weeks. Hancock was at pains to seem apologetic to those affected by the new restrictions, telling people in those areas that the government was 'truly sorry'.

The new mutant strain of Covid-19 is concerning and is likely to make the next few months particularly difficult. But here's the good news: its emergence doesn't necessarily mean that the government's previous optimism about a spring return to normal is off the cards During this Covid-19 outbreak, a common mistake has been to adopt a binary outlook: things are either good or bad, ‘getting better’ or ‘getting worse’. But pandemics are not linear – they are curves. Things can be getting better in the long term, but worse in the immediate short term. The events of the last few days are a good example. It's worth then seeing the decision to 'cancel Christmas' and the imposition of Tier 4 rules in this wider context.