Conservative party

All aboard the election battle bus

Now that David Cameron and Nick Clegg have had their final audiences with the Queen at Buckingham Palace, they can get on the road. Their shiny battle buses are waiting to accompany them on the campaign trail. The Lib Dems are charging hacks who want to clamber aboard their bus £750 per person per day, which is rather a lot for a bus journey, even if it does take you from seat to seat. You’d expect a champagne breakfast personally served by Tim Farron every morning for that fee. Still, the Tories have only invited certain people on their bus, and those certain people seem to be broadcast journalists rather

First poll of the campaign puts the Tories four points ahead

And we’re off! Today is the first day of the proper general election campaign and the rollercoaster of polls continues. ComRes/ITV News/Daily Mail have released a new poll putting the Conservatives four points ahead —  their biggest lead since September 2010 — which is the complete opposite of yesterday’s YouGov shocker. According to ComRes, the Conservatives are currently on 36 per cent, Labour has dropped to 32 per cent, Ukip is on 12 per cent, the Lib Dems on nine and the Greens on five. As with the YouGov poll, the fieldwork was conducted after the Paxman Q&A on Thursday but the numbers are favourable to David Cameron. Many of the

Look at this cheap trick the Tories tried to play on me

‘Mansion Tax Revaluation Information’, said the letter that came through my letterbox, in an envelope that screamed ‘council’ or ‘taxman’ or something alarming. The letter inside was carefully formatted to look official. ‘Your property has been identified as one which could be affected by Ed Miliband’s “Mansion Tax”. This could leave you with an additional bill of more than £20,000 per year.’ And then: ‘Labour has promised to introduce the Mansion Tax immediately. The Inland Revenue will send out demands for payment after the budget in June. That is three months away, are you ready and able to pay Labour’s Mansion Tax?’ You had to turn over the page for the

Stakes raised ahead of Thursday night's debate

The stakes have been raised, at least psychologically, for Thursday night’s debate. Today’s YouGov poll has Labour four points ahead, in contrast to a two point Tory lead in their last survey. This is being seen in Westminster as a Paxman bounce for Miliband. If this Labour leads is still in place at the end of the Easter weekend, Tory nerves will begin to fray. Thursday’s debate will be a crowded affair with seven leaders on stage. Despite it being a two hour debate, there’ll only be time for four questions. As I say in the Mail On Sunday, the debate will almost certainly turn into Cameron versus the rest as they

David Cameron: 'This is a high stakes, high risk election'

The Tories want to frame this election as a straight choice between David Cameron and Ed Miliband. So, today Cameron delivered some of his most direct attacks on Miliband yet. Anticipating criticism, he said, ‘Some might say “don’t make this personal” but when it comes to who’s Prime Minister, the personal is national.’ Cameron warned that Labour could reverse everything that has been achieved in this parliament, the ‘painstaking work of the last 5 years – they could undo in just 5 months.’ He attacked Labour as ‘the welfare party’ and derided Miliband as a ‘Hampstead Socialist’. In contrast, he tried to paint the Tories as the party which is

How (and why) we lie to ourselves about opinion polls

A strange ritual takes place on Twitter most evenings at around 10.30 p.m. Hundreds of political anoraks start tweeting the results of the YouGov daily tracker poll due to be published in the following day’s Sun. Some of them are neutrals, but the majority are politically aligned and will only tweet those results that show their party in front. I often wonder what the point of this is, even though I’m guilty of it myself. It’s not as if anyone is going to see the tweet and say, ‘Ooh, I wasn’t going to vote Conservative, but now that YouGov has them two points ahead I’ve changed my mind.’ I can think

Voters want visions, and powerful posters deliver them – not Twitter

If no-one was very excited about the launch of the Lib Dem’s election poster this morning, it wasn’t just because of the rain. According to The Times, political posters are on their way out. Political parties are spending 50 per cent less on outdoor posters this year than they did in 2010, and unofficial reports have suggested that the Conservatives’ spending on outdoor ads is yet to hit seven figures. By the end of March 2010, the Tories had already splashed out over £3 million. No doubt the barrenness of Britain’s billboards is partly the result of a lack of funds, but it’s also a conscious choice based on the

Revealed: Julian Lewis' email on the 'unworthy manoeuvre' against John Bercow

William Hague has given today’s vote that will set up a secret ballot on the re-election of the Speaker as a ‘leaving present’ to Tory MPs. But not all of them are happy with the way this vote is being carried out. Here is an email from Julian Lewis, passed to Coffee House, about what he calls an ‘Unworthy Manoeuvre’. Other MPs are pleased that this could lead to a new speaker in the new Parliament, talking already about ‘Speaker Hoyle’. From: “LEWIS, Julian” Date: 26 March 2015 00:09:46 GMT Subject: An Unworthy Manoeuvre by the Leader of the House Dear Colleague, At the start of this Parliament, the Procedure

Podcast: Cameron’s second coalition dream and the problems of the sharing economy

David Cameron is secretly planning for a second coalition, according to the new Spectator. In this week’s View from 22 podcast, James Forsyth and Miranda Green discuss the possibility of another Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition after the general election. Would it be more difficult than it was five years ago to strike a deal? Will the Conservative party back Cameron if he falls short of a majority and decides against a minority government? And why is 30 MPs the magic number for the Liberal Democrats to enter into another coalition? Fraser Nelson and Alex Massie discuss our interview with Alex Salmond and his plans to hold Ed Miliband’s feet to the fire. Instead of doing a coalition deal with Labour,

He’ll never admit it, but David Cameron is already plotting another deal with Nick Clegg

David Cameron is honest to a fault — or so he told us this week. While cooking lunch in the kitchen of his Oxfordshire home, he was asked, in terms, whether this is the last election he’ll fight as party leader. Yes, he said, it was. He was then kind enough to name three potential successors. And when shortly afterwards broadcast journalists grew greatly excited by this, he said he had done nothing more than give a ‘very straight answer to a very straight question’. But there is another question to which he will not give a straight answer: is he preparing for another coalition? The Prime Minister knows the

Is it really surprising that people think Ed Miliband is more of a toff than David Cameron?

The most remarkable poll of the week was the one which suggested the British public find Ed Miliband more of a toff than David Cameron. It takes something to out-toff an Old Etonian with a patrician air and liking for green wellies. But is it so very surprising? Ed has, after all, just shown himself to be on the friend of wealthy idlers, by hinting that the brunt of tax rises in a Labour government would fall instead on those who work for a living. Ed Miliband began well in the last Prime Minister’s Questions before the election. He noted David Cameron’s direct answer to James Landale’s direction question on his future as

PMQs: Miliband jumps straight into Cameron's final trap

In the final PMQs of this session, David Cameron scored his most comprehensive victory. Challenged by Ed Miliband to rule out raising VAT, Cameron got to his feet and simply said ‘yes’. At that point, Miliband’s fox was shot. Cameron then moved from defence to attack, repeatedly challenging Miliband to rule out an increase in National Insurance contributions something that Miliband was not prepared to do. By the end of the exchanges, the Labour benches looked glum and the Tory ones jubilant. In truth, the Labour leader had been set up. The Tories had been planning to rule out raising VAT for some time and had been busy calculating when

Learn from Elizabeth I, Cameron: a named successor is a shroud

As Fraser Nelson says on this morning’s Spectator podcast, David Cameron will likely be regretting yesterday’s announcement for the rest of his premiership. He’s not a ripe watermelon; highlighting that he has a best before date won’t encourage anyone to eat him now, before he grows mould. Worse, he’s announced a shortlist of three possible successors: ‘the Theresa Mays, and the George Osbornes, and the Boris Johnsons’. We all know the troubles a similar announcement caused Tony Blair, but even if Dave managed to sleep through the Blair-Brown years (from the opposite green benches), dipping into the biography of any pre-modern English monarch should have taught him of the dangers of

Podcast special: David Cameron's accidental pre-resignation

What to make of David Cameron’s announcement that this will be the last time he leads the Tories into battle? Cock-up or conspiracy? In this View from 22 podcast special, Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth and I discuss the Prime Minister’s interview with the BBC – and whether this represents the first gaffe of the 2015 campaign. How significant are Cameron’s comments and were they prearranged? (James suspects so.) Will his pre-resignation become an issue throughout the campaign or one that excites folks in Westminster and the media? How do his named successors feel? And what does it say about Cameron’s character? You can subscribe to the View from 22 through iTunes and have it delivered to your computer or iPhone

David Cameron has made the first gaffe of the 2015 campaign — and handed Labour an opportunity

Did the Prime Minister mean to say it or not? That question will be on the lips of pundits and politicos over the next few days as everyone attempts to figure out what was on David Cameron’s mind when he spoke to the BBC’s James Landale. This morning’s papers suggest he has committed the first major gaffe of the 2015 campaign — before the campaign has even officially begun. Today’s Guardian, Times, Telegraph, Daily Mail and Financial Times have splashed on Cameron’s remarks and the start of the next Tory leadership contest: Today’s front pages via @suttonnick While the papers have worked themselves into a frenzy at the gaffe, the mood on the backbenches is calmer. The Tory party has been remarkably united behind Cameron

Still no lead: Tories and Labour tied in two new polls

Two polls out today have the Conservatives and Labour neck and neck, while another has Labour ahead by two points. Lord Ashcroft’s national poll has the two main parties at 33 per cent — both up on last week — while Ukip is on 12 per cent, the Lib Dems on eight and Greens on five. Tonight’s YouGov /Sun poll has a similar outlook, with the Tories and Labour tied on 34 per cent, Ukip on 12, the Lib Dems eight and Greens six. Populus, however, has Labour two points ahead on 33 per cent, putting the Conservatives on 31 per cent, Ukip on 16, the Lib Dems on nine and Greens on five. The polls have moved around a

David Cameron: this will be my last election. Theresa, George or Boris may succeed me

With just days to go until the general election campaign, David Cameron has declared that this is last time he’s leading his party into battle. It’s not clear why he felt the need to make this announcement, a tactic normally used by unpopular and besieged leaders to buy time. He says he will stand for a ‘full second term’ but won’t serve a third. His party has lots of talent, he said – a comment that all party leaders make from time to time. But what’s unusual is that Cameron actually picked out three potential successors: Theresa May, George Osborne or Boris Johnson (in that order). Which will set all kinds of hares running.

In a brave move, David Cameron sets fire to his authority

It is always useful to remember Robert Conquest’s suggestion that The simplest way to explain the behaviour of any bureaucratic organisation is to assume it is controlled by a cabal of its enemies.  No, I don’t know why David Cameron would amputate his authority before he runs for re-election either. But that’s what he has done today by ruling out running for a third term in office.  I dare say it was an honest – and spontaneous – answer to a simple question. But still: what a bizarre thing to do, not least because no-one expected him to run again in 2020 even if, by some good fortune, he returns to

Revealed: Labour candidate's joke about Oscar Pistorius shooting

David Cameron is facing calls from Labour to discipline a local council candidate after they dressed as Oscar Pistorius for a costume party. Gregg Peers – who is standing for the Conservatives in a Cumbria County Council by-election – posted photos of himself in the fancy dress on his Facebook page. Labour’s Liz Kendall has said the Prime Minister must ‘show he takes violence against women seriously by taking immediate action against his candidate’. The MP for Leicester West adds that ‘the Conservatives must explain why they promoted him to senior positions in their party’. But isn’t it time for the Labour party to also show that they take violence against women seriously?