Robert Smith

Lord Ashcroft has likened the current state of the polling industry with that of the Liberal Democrats, but he could quite have easily chosen the Labour party as a comparison. All are in the post-mortem stage: pondering how they got the election so wrong and desperately searching for the path back to public credibility. More than ten companies provided regular national polls during the campaign, but it was Lord Ashcroft who offered the most detail on specific marginal seats. The reputation of the once-reviled peer had been reinvigorated through a £3 million operation that surveyed an impressive 167 constituencies. His freely available research seemed to give more detail than ever before on how an election would turn out in the places that mattered.

How much influence will newspapers have in this election? Less than ever before in print, if circulation figures (above) are anything to go by. Yet paranoia remains. On certain days, newspapers do get excited and act like they're trying to win the election. Today's Sun digs up that infamous picture of Ed Miliband and urges readers to 'Save our bacon', the Telegraph pictures Nicola Sturgeon with the headline 'Nightmare on Downing Street', while the Mirror leads with 'Major fail' on comments by the former Prime Minister on inequality. Meanwhile, the Times and Mail have followed the Independent and Evening Standard in putting their weight behind a Cameron-led government. The truth, of course, is that generally newspapers serve up what they believe their readers want.

For the longest serving Home Secretary in 50 years, Theresa May’s record in government is not without its blemishes. On this afternoon’s Daily Politics home affairs debate she made a clear recognition of the government’s failure to meet the Conservative manifesto promise to reduce immigration to the ‘tens of thousands’. May said: ‘We’ve accepted that we have failed to meet that particular target… [But] if you say to me, Andrew, that there’s nothing we have done on immigration, then you’re wrong. What we have done is not met that particular target. ‘Net migration from outside the EU is lower than it was in 2010, but one of the reasons is that we have seen a significant increase in EU migration.

Senior Labour figures have looked uncomfortable during this campaign when speaking of their own party’s policy on balancing the books – the day-to-day spending books, that is. But this afternoon Chris Leslie gave an endorsement of the pledge that is as clear and enthusiastic as voters are likely to get. Challenged by Andrew Neil on today’s Daily Politics debate on the economy, the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury said he made ‘no apologies’ for his party’s focus on clearing the current budget deficit, rather than the overall deficit. Leslie said: ‘The distinction is this…having a balance on the current budget is not the limit of our ambitions.

Philip Hammond was noticeably keen this afternoon to show the government isn't standing idly by while migrants drown in the Mediterranean - especially as the refugee crisis is the global story of the moment; the pictures and reports severe enough to have momentarily knocked the election campaign off a number of front pages. Appearing on today's Daily Politics debate on international affairs, the Foreign Secretary stressed the need for a 'more formidable operation on the sea', and said that David Cameron would head to Brussels on Thursday to call for an 'enhanced operation' to prevent any further crises. Mr Hammond said: 'Of course we’ve got to support search and rescue operations in the Mediterranean. Nobody wants to see people drowning in the Mediterranean.

What do the next generation of MPs think with regards to public services, government spending and taxes? Coffee House has got its hands on new research by Ipsos MORI on the opinions of prospective parliamentary candidates from the main parties. The pollsters interviewed almost one hundred PPCs - 26 Conservative, 29 Labour, 20 Liberal Democrat and 11 SNP - who are all standing in marginal or safe seats, and therefore stand a good chance of making it to the green benches after the general election. Here are the points that stand out: 1: Defence cuts on the front line Defence cuts lead the way for both Labour and Liberal Democrat candidates who agreed that reductions to public spending need to be made.

Ed Miliband famously forgot to mention the deficit in his 2014 conference speech, but you would have thought that at least some prospective Labour MPs consider it to be a crucial issue facing Britain. The country is, after all, spending £46bn a year on debt interest payments alone – the equivalent of the Defence, Home Office and Foreign Office budgets combined. But not so, according to new research presented at a briefing by Ipsos MORI this morning. The pollster interviewed new prospective parliamentary candidates from each of the four main parties - all standing in marginal or safe seats - and asked them to name their political priorities. Of the 29 Labour PPCs surveyed, not a single one brought up the £75bn budget deficit as a key issue facing Britain today.

Ed Miliband has long been considered the Conservatives' main electoral asset. Certainly, Simon Danczuk touched a nerve when he described his party leader as a liability only a fortnight ago. But as the election nears, is the Labour leader beginning to turn his personal fortunes around? Polling from YouGov shows a fascinating trend. Voter approval of Miliband’s performance as Labour leader has improved from a dire state in late-November last year, at net -56%, to the most recent level of -26% last week. With the election campaign underway, a significant chunk of the electorate appear to have given the Labour leader a second look. Indeed, his net approval rating improved by 10 points after the "hell, yes!

Which David Cameron will take the stage for tonight’s seven-way showdown? Will it be the competent, likeable and reasonable statesman who has steered the economy onto safer ground? Or the tetchy one who calls Ed Miliband a ‘waste of space’ at Prime Minister’s Questions? On Monday, speaking at a lectern outside the door of Number 10, the Prime Minister decided to launch a personal attack on his opposite number rather than make a statesman-like pitch to the electorate. To have mentioned Ed Miliband by name once would have been historic – doing so three times smacked of desperation.

Given that Gordon Brown has hardly been seen in the Commons since losing power five years ago, it was a bit rich of him to say goodbye now. But the SNP uprising has started — it looks set to claim his own seat of Kirkcaldy — and so he's off. In his final speech to the House of Commons today, he lamented the gradual breaking apart of the UK which was, of course, started by his own party. After indulging in niceties towards Parliament as an institution, the Speaker and his constituents, Brown promised to devote his efforts away from Westminster to ‘the idea of Britain’ and attacked the Conservatives' plans to devolve powers to England: ‘I leave this house feeling a huge sense of gratitude, but also with some concern.

Anyone listening to Grant Shapps on LBC this afternoon will have noticed he was given a fairly easy ride from a number of the callers phoning-in. Rather than the typical angry voter with an axe to grind, the Tory chairman faced questions of a more old-fashioned, deferential nature. Tony, from Parsons Green, appeared to want Labour to be put straight on the NHS. He had his doubts whether the Tories really were keen on dismantling the treasured institution, as Ed Miliband would have us believe. How, asked Tony, were Labour getting their sums so wrong? Then came Sam, in Nottingham. ‘What are the Conservative party doing to cut the amount of tax I’ll pay and help me move towards home ownership?,’ he wondered.