Conservative party

A leadership contest might be just what the Scottish Tories need

That’s it, the full house. Alex Salmond has seen off all three main opposition party leaders before the Scottish Parliament has even convened for the first time in this new session. Yesterday afternoon, Scottish Conservative leader Annabel Goldie joined her Labour and Liberal Democrat counterparts (Iain Gray and Tavish Scott) in standing down. The Conservatives did not do quite as badly as either of the other two opposition parties in the election – they went down two seats, from 17 to 15 – and many will see that as the reason Miss Goldie delayed her resignation for a few days, to work out of she could continue. But, in reality,

Credit where it’s due

One of the worries of Tory modernisers about the coalition back in May last year was that the Tories would end up being seen as being responsible for all the tough but necessary stuff, eg deficit reduction, while the Lib Dems would claim the cuddly stuff, for example the pupil premium — a policy that was in both the Tory and Lib Dem manifestos.   David Willetts in a piece in the Telegraph today, taken from a speech he’s giving tonight, makes this point anew in the context of the new, frostier coalition relations: “This agenda is shared, so it would be a mistake to get into a game of

Can Lansley stay?

The Prime Minister, it seems, is now finally accepting what everyone else has been saying for a long time: that the NHS reforms were dangerous and would hurt the government. If Nick Clegg forced a re-think — even one that is supported by many Tories — then he may, in the end, play a greater part in delivering the next election for Cameron’s party than many triumphalist right-wingers now realise. For CameronCare was badly-timed, poorly-delivered and strikes at the heart of the PM’s message that the Conservative Party can be trusted. Large-scale reforms need time. Time for people to accept a problem. Time for people to accept the solution.  Where

The Lib Dems’ hostage situation

Norman Lamb’s comment on the Daily Politics about the Lib Dems having become a “human shield” for the government sums up the mood on the Liberal Democrat benches. Lamb went onto wonder whether this was inevitable: “Whether that’s inevitably the case for the junior partner I don’t know… But we are in this for the long term.” The bad news for the Liberal Democrats is, I fear, that it is. On Friday I was having a discussion with a senior Labour figure who was explaining how the party was now going to concentrate its fire on Cameron not Clegg. But within two minutes, we were back to discussing the Liberal

It’s all in the cost

I’ve just caught up with Tim Montgomerie’s exhaustive and tremendously insightful account of the successful No to AV campaign. For those CoffeeHousers who haven’t yet had their fill of last week’s referendum and its implications, I’d heartily recommend it. Numerous points stand out, of which Paul Waugh has already highlighted one of the most vivid. But here is another: “Lesser individuals would have crumbled before Fleet Street’s pens but the battle-tested Labour figures in the No campaign and Cameron’s Political Secretary, Stephen Gilbert, gave [Matthew] Elliott the reassurance he needed to stay on course. They were right to do so. The cost arguments against AV moved voters more than any

Salmond sees out his rivals

Two down and one to go: that’s the score among the opposition leaders in the Scottish Parliament as the parties continue to sift through the wreckage left by the SNP tsunami last week. Iain Gray, the Scottish Labour leader, didn’t wait long. He announced he was quitting on Friday afternoon, even before the full extent of Alex Salmond’s landslide victory was officially declared. Mr Gray will stay on until the autumn but will go then to allow someone else to start the unenviable task of picking Scottish Labour up from its disastrous performance last week. Yesterday Tavish Scott, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader, told his parliamentary party that he was

The Tories’ intellectual dishonesty over the NHS

Why should Cameron ditch the Lib Dems? Coalition has made his party more radical, more electorally successful – and the worst ideas in the Cabinet come from men with blue lapels. Take Andrew Lansley. His press release today would have been shocking had it come from a Lib Dem, and denounced as dangerous leftist nonsense that renders the government’s overall message incoherent. Ed Balls’ arguments against cuts have routinely been challenged in Coffee House. So we can hardly be expected to applaud when his arguments are plagiarised by a Tory. The hapless Lansley, whose needless and complex heath reform bill has stalled, is today trying to win back the initiative

An election before 2015 could soon be illegal

Amazingly, the forces of conservatism derided by Tony Blair, are in the ascendant, their enemies scattering and in retreat. Bin Laden is dead, the oil price tumbling, the Royal Wedding was a triumph and now Labour and the Lib Dems beaten at the ballot box. Surely, we tell ourselves, this is an alignment of the stars, a Conservative moment. David Cameron must seize the day, or at least the year, by abandoning the Coalition and calling a general election soon. Landslide, here we go! Hold your horses. Britain’s electoral machinery is off the road, its parts all over the workshop floor. Thanks to the constitutional tinkering of the Coalition, the

The winners and losers from Thursday’s elections

After every election, the political stock exchange goes into a frenzy trying to work out who is a buy and who is a sell. Thirty-six hours after the polls closed, it is a little clearer who the winners and losers of this election season have been. Here are our selections: Winners Alex Salmond, the biggest winner of Thursday night. Salmond has achieved what the Scottish electoral system was meant to prevent, an overall SNP majority in the Scottish parliament. Salmond now has the votes he needs for a referendum on independence. Even better for him because any referendum ordered by the Scottish parliament would be legally dubious — not that

Weapons-grade Cable

Which Lib Dem can be rudest about the Tories? Chris Huhne, you must admit, gave it a decent shot yesterday, describing his parties’ “extraordinary anger” with their coalition stablemates. Even Nick Clegg had a go, with a little swipe at Thatcherism. But I reckon Vince Cable’s remarks this morning will take some beating. The Tories – on his utterly unscheming, non-partisan account – are “ruthless, calculating and very tribal”. Although he did add that, “that doesn’t mean to say we can’t work with them.” How very broadminded of him. The trick of the next few days will be sifting out the Lib-Con separations that have Downing Street’s blessing from those

From the archives: Nick Clegg and Margaret Thatcher

Here’s a game of Spot the Difference for you. Compare Nick Clegg’s comments today — “…there are some very strong memories of what life was like under Thatcherism in the 1980s, and somehow a fear that that’s what we’re returning to…” — with the latest shot from The Spectator archives: Can Nick Clegg sing the blues? Fraser Nelson, The Spectator, 13 March 2010 Nick Clegg’s office already has a Downing Street feel to it. Since becoming leader of the Liberal Democrats, he has had it redecorated so that portraits of old party leaders hang on the staircase up to his room, as portraits of former prime minsters do in No.

Another disappointment for Ed Miliband

The final tally from Wales is just in — and it’s a minor disappointment, on a day of many disappointments, for Ed Miliband. There was a time when Labour looked set for a comfortable overall majority in the country. But it isn’t to be. They did gain four seats, yet that leaves them one short of an overall majority. Now, with thirty seats — exactly half of those in the Welsh Assembly — they will have to make do with a tighter, working majority. Far from terrible, but not the red groundswell that Miliband might have hoped for. The problem for Miliband is the overall picture: a precarious sort of

Three points from a remarkable night

This has been a remarkable election night. To my mind, there are three big stories out of the polls. First, the George Osborne masterminded campaign for a new Conservative majority is on track. AV, barring some shock, has been defeated and the Conservative vote has held up remarkably well in the English local elections. Indeed, right now the Tories have actually gained councilors in England. Add to this that the next election, if the coalition lasts to 2013, will be fought on new constituency boundaries that are more favourable to the Tories and things are looking promising for the party.    The coalition looks secure. Even after last night’s drubbing,

Surprise, surprise … the Lib Dems are taking a battering

If you fell asleep expecting heavy losses for the Lib Dems, then you will not have been disappointed upon waking up. At time of writing, around 100 English councils, comprising roughly 2,400 councillors, have declared their results – and the yellow brigade have already lost four of them, along with 270 councillors. There’s some way to go yet, so the picture could alter, but Labour appear to making sweeping gains, while the Tory vote is holding unexpectedly firm. As it stands, the local wing of Cameron’s party has actually gained a council, along with 22 councillors in the process. Stir in the likely result of the AV referendum, and the

Will there be TV debates at the next election?

One might have thought that the TV debates would become an immovable fixture in British general elections. But apparently not. Speaking at the launch of a new study of the 2010 election a couple of nights ago, Adam Boulton said that it was far from certain that they will feature at the next election. Will Straw tweeted the news at the time, but it seems to have slipped through the cracks as attention has been diverted elsewhere. Apparently, broadcasters and the parties have reached an impasse at this early stage in the electoral cycle. The Conservatives are reluctant to recommit themselves to something that they believe contributed to their failure

Election day is here at last

The usual form, on mornings such as these, is to put up a post setting the scene for the elections ahead – although, really, there’s not much more to add than was said yesterday. Apart from a readers’ survey in the Metro this morning, the only poll to hit after yesterday’s ICM bombshell is a YouGov one for the Sun, and it gives No a 20-point lead. Even given the complications of turnout and geography, it looks as though Team No are heading for a straightforward victory. As if to underline his increased personal involvement in the campaign, and perhaps tie himself that little bit closer to the eventual result,

Your guide to tomorrow’s elections

In light of ICM’s latest poll, Lib Dems might be relieved to hear that tomorrow isn’t all about the AV referendum. But it’s a meagre sort of relief: they’re facing a drubbing in the local elections too. We’ve put together a quick guide to those elections, as well as those in Scotland and Wales, so that CoffeeHousers know what to look out for, and Lib Dems know what to fear. Here it is: England The main question hovering over England’s local elections is: how big will Labour’s gains be? There are around 9,400 seats up for contention, of which the Conservatives currently hold about 5,000; Labour, 1,600; and the Lib

New ICM poll has No 36 — thirty six — points ahead

Tonight’s ICM poll is even worse for the Yes campaign than last night’s ComRes poll. The poll, in tomorrow’s Guardian, has Yes heading for defeat by a margin of more than two-to-one and in every single region of the country. The turnout adjusted numbers are No 68, Yes 32. If these last two polls are accurate, and it is difficult to estimate what the turnout will be tomorrow, it will be a monumental humiliation for Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats. Defeat on this scale would take Lib Dem nervousness about what the coalition is doing to the party’s brand to a whole new level. Indeed, its effect would be

PMQs live blog | 4 May 2011

VERDICT: A sedate sort of PMQs today, particularly in comparison to the fizz and fire of recent sessions. The reason is simply the date: with the local elections tomorrow, much of the emphasis was on making a straightforward pitch for votes. Miliband’s was to attack the “broken promises” of the coalition — a charge that, if not exactly new, is one he is deploying more and more. Whereas Cameron’s was to emphasise that councils can make cuts while improving services — and that Tory councils have been particularly successful in doing so. Both men broadcast their messages today, without really scarring the other. The winners and losers will be better

Yes to AV on the ropes as the final round approaches

Thanks to this ComRes poll, the question floating around Westminster this morning is: how much?! You see, with only a day to go until the AV referendum, it has the No camp on 66 per cent, and the Yes camp on 34. That puts No a punishing 32 points ahead of its rival. Even allowing for the peculiarities of a bank holiday weekend – as noted by Anthony Wells here – it’s still an astonishing gap. It augurs a landslide. Or does it? To my mind, much still rests on turnout and on the voting patterns of Wales, Scotland, etc. Yet there’s no denying that Yes are up against it