Conservative party

There is now a hardcore of rebels in the Conservative party who have defied the government on three key votes. The 37 MPs below have rebelled on the EU referendum vote, the House of Lords Reform Bill, and the EU budget. The question for the whips and the Prime Minister now is do they write these MPs off their Christmas card lists as forever-rebels, or do they launch a charm offensive that could melt even the steely heart of Peter Bone? I blogged yesterday about some of the problems that the Conservative leadership is creating for itself in terms of party loyalty, and while Bill Cash is hardly going to become chief whip, there may be others in this group who aren't beyond rescue.

What is striking about this evening's revolt on the EU budget is that it was organised at lightning speed by the rebel camp. Mark Reckless and Mark Pritchard only tabled their amendment on Monday morning, whereas the rebellion of the 81 over the backbench motion for an EU referendum took weeks of careful planning. This time round, in just three days, the shadow whipping operation managed to stir up 53 MPs prepared to troop through the 'yes' lobby in favour of the call for a real-terms cut. The whips themselves are already saying that they know the blame will land on Sir George Young's head when they believe it wasn't his fault. And even those who were the most enthusiastic signatories the Reckless/Pritchard amendment disagree that the whips should take the flak.

It was inevitable that the new team of whips was going to be rather unsettled by tomorrow's vote on the EU budget: it's the first challenge the team has had to face. But what is surprising is quite how serious their palpitations are. I understand from a number of Conservative MPs that one of the key threats isn't you-won't-get-a-promotion-in-this-government, or we'll-reveal-the-truth-about-your-mistress, but that a big rebellion tomorrow will threaten the very stability of the coalition government. When I was first told this, I found it slightly incredible: this is a non-binding vote where the popular amendment calls for the Prime Minister to go further than he has promised in negotiations, rather than directly contradicting his stance.

Monday morning in dreich late October. What more appropriate moment to ponder the questions of corporation tax and Northern Ireland? The question of whether the Northern Ireland Assembly should control the rate of corporation tax payable in the two-thirds of Ulster for which it is responsible won't go away, you know. Nor, despite the fact that the London press has paid little attention to it, is this some local matter of no importance to the rest of the United Kingdom either. On the contrary, David Cameron's decision on this seemingly-arcane or merely local matter is more important than it seems and, in fact, one of the more significant questions demanding his attention right now.

Since leaving the Cabinet, Liam Fox has acted as a cross between a scout and an out-rider for various of his former Conservative Cabinet colleagues. In a speech in Oslo tomorrow, he’ll argue that the only way to deal with the Euro crisis is for all of those countries who cannot realistically cope with the demands of the single currency to leave in one go. Otherwise, he argues the markets will simply pick the weaker countries off one by one. Fox is certainly right that if Greece left, or was forced out, of the single currency, Spain and Italy would then find themselves under intense—and, probably intolerable—market pressure. But I suspect that the Eurozone lacks the political and economic awareness to make the kind of clean break that Fox is proposing.

It was not a huge surprise when Ken Clarke rowed back this afternoon on his comments to the Telegraph about tax breaks for married couples. The minister without portfolio was hardly going to get through the first interview he has given since the reshuffle without saying something he would later have to 'clarify'. But he made another interesting observation to the newspaper about the Tories' 2015 strategy. He said: 'If we are back to strong growth by the next election, we probably won’t need to campaign. If at the next election, the economy is in strong normal growth, George Osborne will be given the Companion of Honour or something and we will all get safe back.

While Conrad Black re-entered polite society at Lulu’s in Mayfair last night, the Hospital Club in Soho saw the advent of a new political force. A tie-less Douglas Carswell, the rebellious Tory MP for Clacton, took to the stage to launch his new book The End of Politics and the birth of iDemocracy, a work described by Dominic Lawson in last week’s Sunday Times as ‘as a revolutionary text… right up there with the Communist Manifesto’. Carswell thanked his wife Clementine for allowing him to lurk in the shed for weeks on end while writing his revolutionary tome, and then confessed that he had spent much of the time ‘Skyping with Dan Hannan’, his fellow ultra-modernising Tory.

Charles Moore’s biography of Margaret Thatcher promises to be the most important British political book in decades. Tonight, we got a preview of it when Charles delivered the Centre for Policy Studies’ second Margaret Thatcher lecture. The subject was Thatcher and Europe. I won’t say too much about it because we’re running a version of it in the coming issue of The Spectator. But one thing that Charles demonstrated was that even when Thatcher was campaigning for British membership of the European Community, as then was, she was never in favour of the European project. One of the other thing that Charles’s lecture brought out was the shift in the balance of power in the Tory party on Europe.

Throughout his statement on the European Council, David Cameron seemed slightly irritated. One sensed that the headlines of the last few days have rather got under his skin. Cameron began by declaring that the Council meeting had made ‘limited progress’, which is hardly much to report to the House. He also was unable to resist another pop at Chris Bryant; complaining that he still hadn’t apologised to him when the Labour MPs asked a question. It was striking what a pro-European tone Ed Miliband took in his response to Cameron. It was all about how Cameron was losing control of his party over Europe and needed more friends there.

Theresa May’s political stock has risen this week. Announcing an intention to opt-out of EU law and order directives pleased Tory MPs while her decision not to extradite Gary McKinnon was popular. But we’ve also seen the Home Secretary operating -rarely for her - beyond her brief. She played a key role in pushing Andrew Mitchell out, something she effectively confirmed on the Sunday Politics. When Andrew Neil pressed her on this, she simply replied ‘I’m not going to talk about private conversations’.