Brexit

The government was always onto a loser whether or not it published the 24 technical notices laying out what would happen in the event of a no-deal Brexit. If it didn’t publish them it would be accused of a cover up. If it did and they were terrifying it would provide ammunition for the Remain brigade. And if it published them and they weren’t terribly frightening? Then Remainers would accuse ministers of having their heads in the sand. The latter scenario is pretty much where we are today. There are few stand-out headlines from the 24 documents for anti-Brexit commentators to get their teeth into.

Michel Barnier’s press conference had good news and bad news for the UK government. On the bright side, the EU’s chief negotiator promised to stay put and hold continuous – expected to be weekly – negotiations with Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab to try and bridge the differences between the two sides. However, he also promised not to budge when it comes to his negotiating position. Responding to accusations that the EU has proved inflexible, Barnier said: ‘We haven't changed our principles over two years — but why would we? Why would we change the principles on which the EU is based? The UK is leaving the EU, not the other way around.

It is another black day for Project Fear. The latest employment figures from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) show yet another fall in unemployment, to 1.36 million or 4 per cent of the adult population. There have never been more people employed in the UK economy, and the unemployment rate is at its lowest since early 1975. It wasn’t supposed to be this way, according to George Osborne’s crystal ball. In May 2016, a month before the referendum, he warned us all that should we vote to leave the EU we could expect unemployment to rise by up to 500,000 within two years. Admittedly, George himself has bagged a few jobs since then, but I don’t think his work ethic is wholly responsible for the rise in employment.

I completely agree with David Harris. Like him a Remain voter and a Londoner, I was utterly shocked by the result of the referendum, spending some hours trawling the online results in an attempt to understand what had happened. It was a salutary experience, yielding many surprises (Sevenoaks voted out!) and forced me to reappraise my initial generalised assumptions about the vote. We on the Remain side lost, and fairly. Since then I have been so angered and repelled by the behaviour of Messrs Juncker and Barnier that should we be obliged to vote again I will vote to Leave.

Ever since Theresa May declared that ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ she has seemed to be drifting towards the ‘bad deal’ option. The government has put forward numerous constructive proposals, only for them to be shot down by Michel Barnier — who goes on to warn of ticking clocks and the need for Britain to cede ever more ground. His strategy is logical and amply rewarded: every time he rejects a British plan, more concessions are offered. All along, Barnier’s approach has been to portray a post-Brexit trade deal as if it were a favour to Britain rather than an agreement of mutual interest. Britain, he has asserted, has everything to lose — while the EU could carry on after a ‘no deal’ Brexit as if nothing had happened.

As Theresa May and her ministers spend their summer holiday trying to convince European leaders of the merits of her widely-panned Chequers Brexit blueprint, one of her departed ministers has cause for celebration. According to the latest ConservativeHome poll of Tory members, since resigning as Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has become the favourite among party members to be the next leader. Supported by nearly a third of members, this is an impressive turnaround given that a month ago – when he was still in government – he was backed by only 8 per cent of members.   However, it's also not that surprising. As I said in the i paper last week, Johnson looks to be on course to turn Theresa May’s Brexit disaster into his big opportunity.

With Theresa May's Chequers proposal unpopular across the board, there are many politicians and would-be politicians now asking themselves: could I do a better job? For quite a lot of these people, the answer is 'yes'. However, this afternoon Leave.EU's Arron Banks offered a reminder that sometimes the basics are harder than they look. The Brexit campaigner took to social media to correct Chuka Umunna for sharing a graph detailing growth in G7 countries. Banks's complaint? Canada, the USA and Japan aren't in the G7. The problem? They are. https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1024274947672342530 Probably for the best that it was Vote Leave rather than Banks's Leave.EU won the official Leave campaign designation in the EU referendum campaign...