Brexit

Brexit won’t be over by 29 March 2019. Britain will legally leave the European Union on that date. But that won’t tell us what Britain’s future relationship with the bloc will be, or how closely aligned the UK will be to the EU. Those are questions for which we will have to wait for the answers. What MPs will vote on before next March is not a ‘Brexit deal’ but a withdrawal agreement. Theresa May won’t come to the Commons and table her Chequers plan for approval, which is just as well given that she doesn’t currently have the votes to pass it.

What to make of Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council’s latest tweet? Ahead of tonight’s dinner in Salzburg, he says: ‘Today there is perhaps more hope but there is surely less and less time. On the Irish question and the framework for economic cooperation the UK’s proposal needs to be reworked’ The first sentence is classic Tusk; he has a fondness for statements that are meant to sound profound. His comments on the Irish border are also to be expected. The UK and the EU are still 48 kilometres apart on this question and playing a dangerous game of chicken. Theresa May will use tonight’s dinner to try and persuade the 27 EU heads of government to back away from trying to impose a customs border in the Irish sea.

Theresa May heads to Salzburg tomorrow to try and persuade the leaders of the EU27 of the merits of her Brexit plan. But there’ll be an unwelcome distraction for her in the morning. I understand that the European Commission will issue a reasoned opinion in the Olaf case, where the Commission accuses the UK of failing to prevent customs fraud on shoes and textiles imported from China and is demanding over two billion euros in lost revenue. The UK continues to contest this case, and I understand it has asked the Commission for more information on various points. But the timing of this reasoned opinion has raised eyebrows in government circles. It seems more than a coincidence that it is appearing on the day that May sits down with the leaders of the EU 27.

Why are we so addicted to economic forecasts? We'll know they are going to turn out to be wrong because they always do. And yet still we can’t seem to stop ourselves hanging on their every word. This morning it is the IMF’s turn, once more, to have its forecasts for the UK economy treated with undue seriousness. The Guardian reports that the IMF ‘backs Theresa May’s warnings over no-deal Brexit’ – by saying a ‘no deal’ scenario would lead to ‘substantial costs’ for the UK. But even May’s Chequers deal will condemn Britain to economic mediocrity, according to the IMF. The FT reports that, in the case of a smooth Brexit, the IMF sees Britain struggling to exceed growth of 1.5 per cent in the years ahead.

Philip Hammond’s political tin ear has struck again. As I write in The Sun this morning, he has twice been slapped down in Cabinet this week. On Tuesday, he talked about ‘squealing’ about universal credit and was chastised by the Chief Whip for his language. Those sympathetic to Hammond point out that he was referring to Labour when talking about ‘squealing’. But it was still a poor choice of words when discussing changes to the benefits system. Then at the ‘no deal’ Cabinet on Thursday, Hammond raised the prospect of delaying Brexit day. After the legislative timetable for getting ready for ‘no deal’—which is tight—had been outlined, Hammond pointed out that the government has the power to put the Brexit date back.

This week, Tory in-fighting comes to the fore, but could the party be even more divided than we thought? Meanwhile, across the Pond, Donald Trump continues to cause backlash. Is he to blame for an ideological shift to the left in the country? Thankfully, our own Head of State isn’t on Twitter, though that doesn’t stop people speculating about her Majesty’s personal opinions. Is the Queen a Eurosceptic? First, the Conservative Party is taking up arms against each other. This week, back room plotting came to the fore with the Brexiteer group the ERG openly discussing Mrs May’s demise and Boris Johnson dominating headlines. But James Forsyth reveals in this week’s cover piece that there are more fractures in the party than merely a Chequers/Brexiteer divide.

I am just going to let this speak for itself. It’s a slightly edited but verbatim account of tonight’s weekly meeting of the Brexiter European Research Group faction of the Conservative Party. It requires no additional comment from me - other than that I have multiple sources vouching for its veracity. “We've just had an ERG mass meeting, 50 odd MPs present, where virtually the only topic of conversation for 40/50 mins was: how best do we get rid of her? What's the best way to use our letters? Comments included: ‘Everyone I know says she has to go’, ‘she's a disaster’, ‘this can't go on’. You might think that this is usual far for us, but it's not! Not in the mass weekly meeting, never in what's basically a public forum.

The UK and the EU are playing a dangerous game of chicken over the Irish border, I say in The Sun this morning. There has been almost no progress on this issue over the summer and without a deal on it, there can’t be a withdrawal agreement. One of those involved in the negotiations on the British side tells me, the EU ‘believe we will blink first’. But that won’t happen. One Brexit red line that Theresa May is adamant she’ll never cross is her insistence that no British PM could sign the EU’s proposed text on the Irish border, which would see Northern Ireland become part of the customs territory of the EU. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, is prepared to produce a de-dramatised version of the backstop.

Is Tommy Robinson a political martyr? Some Ukip supporters think so, and want the former English Defence League leader to be allowed to join their party. A motion set to be debated at Ukip's conference this month could now decide the issue, with the party's ruling body debating this weekend whether it should be up to its members to have the final say on whether Robinson should be welcome in Ukip's ranks. If the ban on Robinson's membership is lifted, then the smallest fig leaf separating the party from the EDL will have finally been removed. Under Ukip's latest leader, Gerard Batten, this seems to be the direction in which the party is travelling.