Brexit

It is impossible to overstate Angela Merkel’s significance, to Germany, to the EU, and to Britain. Others are better qualified than me to talk about the first two of those, but as she announces her (slow, deliberate) departure from office, I offer a thought about Merkel and Britain, which is that the modern history of Britain’s European policy has been a story of misunderstanding Angela Merkel, and therefore Germany. This story starts in 2005, when David Cameron stood for the Tory leadership. As a moderate, he was keen to woo the Right, especially on Europe. So he promised to pull the Tory MEPs out of the European People’s Party grouping in the European Parliament.

Sir: What James Forsyth calls ‘the EU plan’ to keep Northern Ireland in the customs union after Brexit (‘The Irish problem’, 20 October) would no more ‘ease Northern Ireland away from the UK and push it more towards Dublin’s orbit’ than it has already done itself through numerous legislative differences. With regard to social issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage, Northern Ireland is far closer to the Republic (as it once was) than to the rest of the UK. It would therefore be no great stretch to avoid awkwardness of land border checks (and respect the spirit of the Good Friday Agreement) by having such checks at the sea ports.

Theresa May should offer to go to the 1922 Committee every week between now and March 2019. Her appearance led to a, predictable, rallying round. There was the usual desk banging and lots of calls for unity. I’m told there were about half a dozen questions on tone and language following the hideous quotes given to the Sunday papers. Tellingly, Steve Baker, the ERG’s lead organiser, tried to turn the tables and present his group as the real loyalists. He asked the Prime Minister if those Tory MPs saying they would vote down no deal were hurting the her negotiating position. She agreed that this was not helpful. As one Cabinet Minister said to me afterwards, if you’re expecting fireworks when the Prime Minister comes to the 1922, you’ll always be disappointed.

Theresa May is to face her MPs at the 1922 Committee tomorrow, it has been confirmed. There had been calls for the Prime Minister to do so, after feverish speculation that Tory MPs were plotting to remove her because of her disappointing Brexit performance. She has clearly decided to take on those critics and face her party, rather than hide and hope that this is all going to go away. One of the reasons MPs are increasingly dissatisfied with the Prime Minister is that she isn't offering any sense of progress towards a deal, and there will again be demands for her to show that she will win a concession from Brussels and secure a deal.

Theresa May tried her best to persuade grumpy MPs that a Brexit deal was still in sight when she addressed the Commons this evening. With colleagues from across the Conservative party losing faith in No 10's negotiating strategy, the Prime Minister insisted that '95 per cent of the Withdrawal Agreement and its protocols are now settled'. The trouble is the remaining 5 per cent is the most difficult. As May herself admitted, the main sticking point is 'a considerable one': the Irish border. With the Brexit talks at an impasse over the terms of the Irish backstop – the arrangement the UK would fall back on to avoid a hard border if no new trade deal is in place by the end of the transition – few believe a solution is in sight.

Dominic Raab - 'We need to hold our nerve' Andrew Marr was joined by the Brexit Secretary as the deadline for achieving a deal with the European Union draws ever closer. Marr asked Dominic Raab about rumours that the mood in the party is restless enough to trigger a leadership contest against Theresa May, with the influential 1922 Committee of Conservative backbenchers reportedly nearing the critical threshold of 48 signatures. Raab told his colleagues that now was the time 'to play for the team': AM: What is your message to all of your colleagues who look at this and say 'This is a complete shambles'? DR: We're at the end stage of the negotiation. I think it's understandable there are jitters on all sides of this debate. We need to hold our nerve.

If Britain crashes out of the EU with no deal and the Conservatives plunge to a defeat against Labour in a subsequent general election, Theresa May, not without reason, will take the blame. But the blame will not be all hers. William Hague will deserve a fair slice of it as well.   It has become quite clear that May is not going to achieve a decent deal. The task is beyond her. She does not have the imagination to know where to go next, and she has already painted herself into a corner. She staked her entire authority on her Chequers plan – a solution which, it soon became clear, had virtually no support other than that of May herself.