Brexit

Last week, disgruntled MPs walked out of a meeting of the Commons Brexit Select Committee -- chaired by Hilary Benn -- in protest at a report they claimed was 'too gloomy'. Today that report has been published in its 155-page entirety.  As expected, the committee is divided over its contents -- with Tory members of the committee objecting to it. Dominic Raab says it is 'rushed, skewed and partisan', while his fellow committee member Alistair Carmichael claims it's a devastating critique that shows 'the government’s handling of Brexit makes a Jeremy Corbyn reshuffle look like a smooth operation'.

ICM, who Vote Leave used for their own referendum polling, have some striking numbers on what elements of an EU exit deal British voters would find acceptable. 54 per cent of voters regard maintaining free movement as part of a transition deal - something that Theresa May wouldn’t rule out in her interview with Andrew Neil - as acceptable. However, there is clearly going to be a big problem with any exit payment. 64 per cent regard a £10 billion payment as unacceptable, with that figure rising to 70 per cent for a £20 billion payment—which is at the low end of what people in Brussels think Britain ought to pay. This, obviously, presents a political problem for May: how does she square the public on such a payment?

For Israelis, Europe's political landscape is looking increasingly familiar. Whereas Israel was once seen as something of a political backwater, nowadays it's European politicians who seem to be gazing across to Israel for inspiration. Those on the right are leading the way: from Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders to Austria’s Norbert Hofer, this group of populist politicians are tending to see in Israel’s brand of nationalism a model for their own. In January, Le Pen spoke of a 'patriotic spring' of nationalism in Europe; she went on to say that 'we are experiencing the return of nation-states'. And who better to provide inspiration for that than Israel?

So we have the first sight of the European Council’s draft negotiating guidelines. They’re much more constructive that we would have been lead to believe. And there are no big surprises. The first headline point is that there is no mention of the €60 billion figure which Jean-Claude Juncker and the European Commission have loved to go on about. In fact no figure is mentioned at all. The section on money is restricted to saying that debts will need to be settled – something Theresa May has already acknowledged. It does not say when the cheque needs to be signed: A single financial settlement should ensure that the Union and the United Kingdom both respect the obligations undertaken before the date of withdrawal.

Most people are glad to see the end of a referendum campaign, but the losing side always wants to keep going. Nicola Sturgeon has this week demanded a second vote on independence, in defiance of public opinion. And as Brexit talks begin, the country is still divided, with many people wishing to see the negotiations break down and the referendum result be overturned. The Prime Minister will need to fight these two battles in different ways. In Scotland, she must take care not to fall into the nationalists’ traps. Ms Sturgeon ran for office promising not to call a second referendum unless it was ‘clear’ that a ‘majority of people wanted a referendum’. At the time, the SNP expected support for independence to rise.