Brexit

The Cabinet’s Brexit negotiation

Theresa May will give her Brexit speech in Florence today safe in the knowledge that she finally has the full backing of her Cabinet – at least, until the warm prosecco comes out at party conference. After a difficult week, Cabinet ministers today met on Thursday a two-and-a-half hour meeting where approval was given. In an attempt to demonstrate unity, the two poles of the Cabinet’s Brexit debate – Philip Hammond and Boris Johnson – left No 10 together. Whether this new Cabinet unity can last is another matter entirely. It’s expected that May will use the speech to propose a transitional deal with the EU of up to two years

This is what Theresa May should say in her Florence speech

Tomorrow in Florence, Theresa May needs to make the speech of her life. Britain has a strong hand to play in these EU talks and it’s time the Prime Minister showed it. May must assert once again that ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’, shoring up the UK’s bargaining position. She should also insist Britain won’t confirm any ‘divorce bill’ until these Article 50 talks end in March 2019, with the final amount dependent on the goodwill the EU has shown. Above all, taking her cue from Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister needs to present an inspiring vision of the UK outside the EU. The heyday

Forget hard or soft. What we need is a quick Brexit

Should the exit bill be €20bn or €40bn? Should the trade deal be the ‘Swiss-plus’ or ‘Canada-lite’? Should our negotiating strategy be the full cliff-edge, or should we opt for the reverse gear? If we had a couple of micro-chip factories for every different version of Brexit on offer, we’d probably be worrying about it a lot less. But in fact there is something far more important than whether we end up with a hard or soft Brexit – and that is a quick Brexit. Ask anyone in business – and the debate about how to leave the EU is mostly about preserving the economy – and they will tell you

What the papers say: May must mean what she says on a Brexit no deal

Ahead of tomorrow’s Brexit speech in Florence, the Sun has some advice for the Prime Minister: show that you’re prepared to walk away. The paper says it is vital that the Cabinet pulls together around the PM’s Brexit. But it also asks: what happens if Angela Merkel doesn’t buy her plan? Of course, it would be good for Britain if the German Chancellor ‘realised the damage a ‘punishment’ Brexit will do to German car giants and saw reason’. But there’s no guarantee of that. So May must ’get serious about walking away’ – ‘It cannot be a bluff’, the Sun says. Former chancellor Lord Lawson is right to say ‘we

Brexit wars

The time for choosing is fast approaching for Theresa May. Soon she must make a decision that will define her premiership and her country’s future. The past few days have shown how hard, if not impossible, it will be for her to keep her entire cabinet on board with whatever EU deal she signs. It is imperative that she now picks what kind of Brexit she wants. But doing so will risk alienating — or even losing — various cabinet members. She has been trying to blur the lines for months, but as one of those closely involved in this drama warns: ‘She can’t fudge this forever.’ Another participant in

Crime and prejudice

Nothing spoke of the fractious atmosphere in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum more than the death of 40-year-old Arek Jozwik in a shopping centre in Harlow, Essex in August 2016. What might, on any other weekend, have been passed over as just another grubby Saturday-night incident on Britain’s drunken high streets became elevated into a symptom of Brexit-induced racial hatred. James O’Brien, an LBC radio talk-show host, declared that certain Eurosceptics had ‘blood on their hands’ as did ‘anybody who has suggested speaking Polish in a public place is in any way undesirable’. This was the premise of almost all reporting on the story: a man seemed to have

The political nature of statistics

Sir David Norgrove, the chairman of the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA), is an honourable man. When he publicly rebuked Boris Johnson for his use of the famous £350 million figure about our weekly EU contribution, I am sure he was statistically, not party-politically motivated. But two points occur. The first is that Sir David was, arguably, mistaken. He thinks Boris said that, after Brexit, Britain would have £350 million a week more to spend. He didn’t. He said ‘we will take back control of roughly £350 million a week’. This is correct. So long as we are in the EU, that £350 million a week is out of our control,

Theresa May’s singing birds can only hold the same tune for so long

After concerns about the Foreign Secretary’s job security bumped Vince Cable’s keynote leader’s speech at Lib Dem conference off the news agenda yesterday, a sense of stability has been restored to Cabinet. Boris Johnson has told hacks in New York that he is not going anywhere – likening Cabinet harmony to ‘a nest of singing birds’. The message from Downing Street, too, is one of quiet confidence that Johnson won’t be departing the frontbench – at least, not this weekend. This suggests two things. Firstly, that May’s Florence speech won’t be as drastic as had first been thought. Secondly, Johnson is coming round to the idea of payments to Brussels continuing during a transition period.

What the papers say: Tory Brexit infighting could hand Corbyn victory

Boris Johnson’s Brexit intervention ‘is a dismal reflection on Theresa May’s position’, says the Times. But worse than that, this Cabinet ‘disunity is corroding the Conservative brand’ – and making a Corbyn victory at the next election ever more likely. ‘In normal times,’ says the Times, ‘the case for dismissal would be unanswerable’. But while the Foreign Secretary’s popularity has ‘plummeted’ of late, he still retains ‘a talent for generating headlines when he is in the mood for trouble’. Mrs May has learnt a lesson from her brutal treatment of George Osborne, and seems determined not to repeat her mistake on that front. Yet while Boris has survived in his

Roger Bootle: A post-Brexit Britain could be ‘more open, less protectionist and more competitive’

One of the City’s best-known economists, Roger Bootle, discusses whether a success could be made from Brexit, just over a year after Britain to leave the European Union. Bootle begins by explaining the ‘overblown’ nature of the ‘European Single Market’ concept: I don’t think what has been clearly said or argued is that the [European] ‘Single Market’ is vastly overblown. There are advantages and disadvantages of not being part of it. However, I do think it has become a protectionist entity. The original idea for a [European] ‘Single Market’ was a British one supported by former Conservative Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher. The idea behind the [European] ‘Single Market’ was to

Vince Cable’s conference speech, full text

It is with a real sense of pride that I stand before you as leader of the Liberal Democrats. First of all, I’d like to put on record my thanks to my predecessor, Tim Farron. He hands over a Party, which is larger, stronger and more diverse than the one he inherited. He stood up for refugees whose plight the government had shamefully ignored. He established our very clear identity as the only real, undiluted pro-European party. We are all hugely indebted to him. It’s good, today, to be amongst friends. So please forgive me if I start by addressing people who are not yet our friends, but whom we might persuade.   People who say they

The great Brexit bus delusion

I know many Leave voters. Most of my family. Around half of my friends. Lots of the people in the immigrant community in London I grew up in. (We’re bad immigrants, being anti-EU, so we never feature in the migrant-sympathetic commentary of EU-pining hacks.) And not one of them has ever said they chose Brexit because of that £350m-for-the-NHS thing on the side of a bus. The idea that that bus swung the referendum, that it duped the voting hordes, has become one of the great, and nasty, myths of the Brexit era. The bloody bus is back in the news this week after Boris Johnson said he’d like to

What the papers say: Boris is speaking for the majority of Brits

Boris Johnson has come in for plenty of criticism since setting out his Brexit blueprint in a 4,000 word article in the Daily Telegraph. But the Sun says the Foreign Secretary has done the PM a favour in speaking up for ‘the 52 per cent who voted Leave and the many more won over since’. ‘Theresa May must listen’ up, the paper says – and she should also ‘ignore the siren calls from Cabinet Remainers’ who want to reverse the referendum result. The attacks levelled at Boris are ‘designed solely to discredit him and trash the optimistic vision’ of Brexit he has set out. Instead of getting angry at Boris, the

Ryanair’s chaos prediction is coming true – but Brexit isn’t to blame

So, the worst has happened, just as Ryanair said it would. The budget airline has had to cancel thousands of flights – around 50 of them, every day, for the next six weeks. It follows an ominous warning that was made by chief executive Michael O’ Leary last month: “What is increasingly likely to happen is that there will be no flights. Mrs May and the Brexiteers will be trying to explain that to you in 12 months’ time, why getting a car to Scotland or a ferry to Ireland are the only options on offer.” Except, that is, while last month’s warning concerned Brexit, this week’s cancellations concerned a cock-up

The biggest Cabinet Brexit split

The Cabinet remains divided on one of the most fundamental Brexit questions. Everyone in the Cabinet does accept that Britain is leaving not just the EU but the single market too. But there remains a split over whether Britain should be aiming for an EEA minus deal with the EU or a CETA plus one. This might sound techy but it is fundamental to Britain’s future. Free movement makes it a political non-starter for Britain to stay in the single market. However, several of the most senior members of the Cabinet, backed by the institutional Treasury, think that Britain should stay as closely aligned to the single market as possible.

What the papers say: Boris’s ‘naked pitch’ for the top job

Has Boris Johnson launched a military coup? Based on ‘some of the chatter coming out of the Westminster Bubble’, you’d be forgiven for thinking his Brexit intervention was just that, says the Sun. It’s time for everybody to ‘calm down’, the paper urges. Yes, some of those who have questioned the timing of the article – published in the run-up to Theresa May’s major speech on Brexit this Friday – may have a point. But Boris is nonetheless ‘entitled to a view on what Britain might look like after we leave the EU’. The Tories need to quit the fighting amongst themselves and realise that the only ones to benefit from

Old habits die hard for Russell Brand

Oh dear. Although Russell Brand once said he had never voted, and never would, as a result of his ‘absolute indifference and weariness and exhaustion from the lies, treachery and deceit of the political class’, he went on to change his tune when her urged his fans to vote Labour in the 2015 election – and later endorsed Jeremy Corbyn. So, Mr S was curious to discover that Brand has now returned to his old tricks. The comedian-turned-left-wing revolutionary tells the Sunday Times that he didn’t vote in the EU referendum as he was on ‘holiday’: ‘How did he vote in the referendum? He mumbles: “I was on holiday.” He didn’t vote over Brexit? “No,” he

Brexit poses fresh problems for Welsh devolution

Twenty years ago Wales (barely) said Yes to devolution. Despite a Welsh Assembly being supported by the wildly popular new Prime Minister Blair and opposed by the very unpopular Conservatives, the public gave the most grudging endorsement to partial self-rule. A lot of water has flowed under many Welsh bridges since then. Public opposition to devolution fell away surprisingly quickly after 1997; the latest evidence, which I will be presenting in Cardiff on Monday, confirms that a clear majority in Wales now support devolution. There is little political opposition either. The Conservatives swiftly accepted the referendum result; since returning to power at Westminster they have overseen two Wales Acts transferring

Banksy’s Brexit mural has helped halt Dover’s decline

When people come to Dover, it’s usually to pass through. The magnificent castle on the cliffs may be a tourist attraction in its own right, but for the most part, Dover has been a place people go through on their way to or back from the Continent. It’s never been much of a seaside destination. The rise of cheap flights, the end of duty-free and the advent of the Channel Tunnel diminished its status as a port, and the 2008 crash hit it hard. The number of vagrants, street drinkers and empty shop premises in the centre bear witness to a town that has seen better times. Yet things are