Brazil

As the dust settled on Jair Bolsonaro’s seismic victory in Brazil back in 2018, one might have spared a thought for those dedicated to the cause of international socialism. Having bathed in the glory of the so-called "Pink Tide" and the commodities boom of the early 2000s that allowed socialist governments such as Hugo Chávez's Venezuela to seemingly prosper, any hopes that Latin America would forever unify in the cause of left-wing anti-imperialism seemed well and truly dashed. In many of the continent’s wealthiest countries, right-of-center politicians had swept to power with a view to restoring their nation’s former glory. These included Bolsonaro in Brazil, Sebastian Piñera in Chile, Ivan Duque in Colombia, and Mauricio Macri in Argentina, among others.

So the Brooks Brothers riot has arrived in Brasilia. That riot, a precursor to January 6, took place in Miami-Dade County in November 2000 and was led by Republican staffers intent on disrupting the recount of votes. On Sunday, with Jair Bolsonaro hunkered down in Florida, his followers thought it would be a neat idea to follow suit, trashing the presidential palace, the National Congress and Supreme Federal Court. A motley crew of Americans helped stoke the madness. “The whole thing smells,” said one visitor to Steve Bannon’s podcast following the first round of voting in October. It was the very same farrago of lies that circulated after America’s presidential election took hold. There was the nonsense about a “stolen election.

After a bruising campaign, the leftist former president of Brazil Lula Ignacio Da Silva appears to have won back control of the Palácio da Alvorada, the Brazilian presidential residence. Lula defeated conservative incumbent Jair Bolsonaro by the narrowest of margins and is now poised to bring back socialist leadership to the world’s fourth-largest democracy. However, the result was by no means a blowout for Lula and his Workers' Party, which polls had suggested could win a landslide victory. In reality, Bolsonaro outperformed expectations just by taking the vote to a second round, while his Social Liberal Party maintained control of Brazil's congress. Nevertheless, the outcome marks an incredible comeback story for the 77-year-old Lula.

Brazil’s Donald Trump has a challenger. Jair Bolsonaro is preparing to take on his predecessor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in what will be the socialist’s sixth run at office. But if the flamboyant Bolsonaro is Trump, does that make Lula the Brazilian Biden? Part of the reason Trump lost was his erratic response to the Covid crisis. In Brazil, Covid policies are mostly set at the local level. But Bolsonaro has been pilloried in the press for opposing shutdowns, appearing at rallies without masks or social distancing, and promoting chloroquine and Ivermectin as treatments. He refuses to get vaccinated. He has also done himself no favours with impatient and petulant answers to journalists’ questions about the pandemic. He comes off sounding uncompassionate.

Jair Bolsonaro’s victory in Brazil's presidential election has stoked fears around the world that ‘fascism’ is on the rise. In Brazil, of course, that word has a particular resonance. The former army captain sees the years of military dictatorship from 1964 to 1985 as benign ones. The only mistake the generals made, he has said, was in not killing enough dissidents—another 30,000 would have done the trick. His pick for vice-president thinks that the country should be back under martial law, and repeats the line whenever he is invited to withdraw it. Bolsonaro has been dubbed the ‘Trump of the Tropics’, a moniker he seems happy to accept. Both men are disrupters. Both like to be seen dealing with a strong right arm and appeal to an angry base.