Politics

Read about the latest political news, views and analysis

Thursday

Katy Balls

Johnson and Varadkar: It’s not over yet

Is all hope lost that a Brexit deal can be agreed before 31 October? That's been the mood music coming from both the UK and Brussels in recent days. However, Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar have this afternoon made a joint statement making clear that they haven't given up on agreeing a deal just yet. After holding two hours of talks in a Cheshire countryside bolthole, Johnson and Varadkar released a joint statement in which they said that they could both 'see a pathway to a possible deal': 'The Prime Minister and Taoiseach have had a detailed and constructive discussion. Both continue to believe that a deal is in everybody’s interest. They agreed that they could see a pathway to a possible deal. Their discussion concentrated on the challenges of customs and consent.

Liam Halligan

Germany’s ailing economy can’t afford a no-deal Brexit

The UK was the ‘sick man’ when we ‘joined Europe’ in 1973. Now, with Britain on the cusp of leaving, the European Union’s largest economy is decidedly out of sorts. After failing to recover over the summer, Germany is now almost certainly in recession. The state of the fourth biggest economy on earth always matters — but with Germany dragging down the broader eurozone, its declining health could decisively impact Brexit negotiations too. Politically, Brussels and Dublin are bullish. They have dismissed Boris Johnson’s proposals, gambling on an extension and perhaps Brexit being cancelled entirely. But such intransigence could yet cause a disorderly no-deal Brexit — which would have a pretty big impact on all major economies on the continent.

Martin Vander Weyer

Are Boris’s hedge-fund pals conspiring to ‘short the UK’? I doubt it

Minding my own business at 67 Pall Mall — the private members’ club favoured by oenophile West End hedge-fund managers that will serve as this week’s restaurant tip — I’m watching two tieless but well-tailored gents at the next table sampling different vintages of Château Pichon Longueville. And I’m thinking: ‘Bastards! These must be the friends-of-Boris who are conspiring to reap billions from a no-deal Brexit!’ It was former chancellor Philip Hammond who wrote recently of Johnson being ‘backed by speculators’, citing the PM’s sister Rachel who had spoken of the influence on him of ‘people who have invested billions in shorting the pound and shorting the country’.

Jo Johnson

David Cameron’s For the Record ends where the sorriest three years in modern British history begin

It’s fun to look for what’s missing in a memoir; the forgotten egos, the policy howlers buried for posterity. Some omissions are accidental. When Tony Blair published his autobiography in 2010, he raised eyebrows by neglecting to mention his celebrated blue-skies thinker, John Birt. Over more than 700 pages, For the Record is punctilious and dutiful in name-checking the many fallen Cameroonian foot-soldiers who sacrificed themselves in the cause of Conservative modernisation. It is a testament to David Cameron’s great qualities — his quick wit, habitual cheeriness and calmness under pressure — just how many of them there are. No one working in No.

Wednesday

Katy Balls

Tories fret over further election delay

Members of the One Nation caucus of Conservative MPs met with Boris Johnson this afternoon over concerns the party could shift to a no-deal platform if an election takes place after a Brexit delay. No. 10 sources have suggested such a policy could be the best electoral route for the Tories in this scenario – as they would need something to prevent frustrated Leave voters moving to the Brexit party. However, attendees at the meeting say they left reassured this was not the case – with Johnson suggesting that a policy of only accepting no deal was unlikely to make its way into the Tory manifesto. But as these MPs worry about the contents of that manifesto, a growing number of Tory MPs are worrying that the election may not be for months yet. The view in No.

Steerpike

Revealed: David Cameron’s ‘Gove protocol’

When Michael Gove was welcomed back into government this year and appointed Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, some wondered if Boris Johnson was really wise to trust his old nemesis with the serious business of government. After all, Gove both ran against the PM in the recent leadership contest and, infamously, stabbed him in the back after the Brexit vote in 2016. But if Boris is looking for inspiration about how to handle his colleague, it appears that there are other prime ministers who might be able to help. David Cameron for one apparently distrusted Gove so much he developed his own protocol for managing his Chief Whip.

Tuesday

Robert Peston

Is the EU about to offer a time-limited backstop?

This morning when Angela Merkel told Boris Johnson his Brexit offer did not provide the requisite confidence that the border on the island of Ireland would be kept open while preserving the integrity of the EU’s single market, it looked as though any Brexit deal was dead - and that the Prime Minister would therefore now focus all his efforts on achieving a no-deal Brexit, while MPs would focus all theirs on forcing him to ask for a Brexit delay. Tonight the president of the European Parliament, David Maria Sassoli, met Johnson and reinforced Merkel’s message that the British offer falls well short. So a Brexit deal is all over bar the shouting? Not quite, but almost. Technical talks between the Article 50 Taskforce and the UK’s negotiator rumble on.

Steerpike

Jess Phillips’ supersonic door-knocking

Elections are a busy period for most politicians – the time when they hit the streets of their constituencies, knock on doors and hand out thousands of leaflets – all in an attempt to keep their seats in the House of Commons. And while some undoubtably do work hard for every ballot slip, some MPs are inclined to exaggerate their own heroic efforts when it comes to winning a tightly-fought vote. It appeared that the Labour MP Jess Phillips may have fallen into that trap this afternoon, when she appeared on the BBC's Politics Live.

Katy Balls

The voters who will prove pivotal at the next election

As the prospect of a Brexit deal drifts further away and a blame game ensues between Downing Street and Brussels, the UK is on course for a volatile general election. As James reveals on Coffee House, No. 10's attention has moved to how to position the Conservatives in an election in during a Brexit extension. A senior Downing Street source tells him: 'Those who pushed the Benn Act intended to sabotage a deal and they’ve probably succeeded. So the main effect of it will probably be to help us win an election by uniting the leave vote and then a no deal Brexit. History is full of such ironies and tragedies.' When it comes to that election, two reports today have been published identifying the swing factors that could decide the result.

Brendan O’Neill

Extinction Rebellion is a menace

It’s tempting to laugh at Extinction Rebellion. I do it myself frequently. Those yoga sessions on Westminster Bridge. The amateur dramatics of wandering around in naff crimson-red outfits to symbolise ‘the common blood we share with all species’. That lame rave-style dancing they do as some bloke in an overlong beard plays the drums while his parents in the Home Counties wonder when he’s going to come to his senses and join his dad’s law firm. It’s all so ridiculous. They fancy themselves as revolutionaries but really this is just Hampstead and Homerton, the posh and the hip, descending on Westminster for a few days to wail about how howwible modern society is. It’s primal therapy for crusties.

Robert Peston

Angela Merkel rejects Boris Johnson’s Brexit offer

This feels very big: Boris Johnson spoke with German Chancellor Angela Merkel at 8am this morning, and according to a Downing Street source, she told the prime minister that there will be no Brexit deal with the UK unless Northern Ireland is in the customs union "forever". The source says she repeated "forever" on "multiple occasions". So what she is saying is there can be no time-limited backstop. And of course it is a wholesale rejection of Johnson's offer to replace the backstop. "France is saying the same thing", according to the source. The government's conclusion is that EU leaders have decided to make an example of the UK – to show that Johnson's attempt to bin the painstakingly negotiated Withdrawal Agreement must inevitably lead to a worse deal for the UK.

Stephen Daisley

Thwarting Brexit probably won’t stop Brexit

What if they succeed in thwarting Brexit? The odds seem weighted against Boris Johnson delivering his do-or-die (-in-a-ditch) promise to get the UK out of the EU by Halloween. The Benn Act has tied the government’s hands so there is no need for Brussels to budge. Donald Tusk can wait until Johnson cracks and complies, or until the Remain Parliament ousts him and installs a prime minister who will hold a second referendum or revoke Article 50 altogether.  Because MPs have no commonly agreed position, we can’t be sure which eventuality we’re heading for, but we can agree that Britain’s membership continuing on November 1 would represent a big defeat for the Prime Minister, his government and the Brexit movement.

Monday

Steerpike

Boris Johnson takes on Extinction Rebellion at book launch

To the launch of the final volume of Charles Moore's biography of Margaret Thatcher at Banqueting House. A mix of cabinet ministers, government aides and hacks descended on the Policy Exchange bash to hear both Moore and Boris Johnson speak. With the climate change Extinction Rebellion protests shutting down Whitehall, a number of ministers arrived via an underground tunnel to minimise disruption. Taking to the stage to pay credit to his former boss Charles Moore for his work on the biography, the Prime Minister said that he had been advised against attending by his own team: 'I am afraid that the security people didn’t want me to come along tonight because they said the road was full of uncooperative crusties and protesters of all kinds littering the road.

James Forsyth

How Number 10 view the state of the negotiations

Earlier today, I sent a message to a contact in Number 10 asking them how the Brexit talks were going. They sent a long reply which I think gives a pretty clear sense of where they think things are. So, in the interest of trying to let people understand where Number 10 reckon the negotiations are, here is their response: ‘The negotiations will probably end this week. Varadkar doesn’t want to negotiate. Varadkar was keen on talking before the Benn Act when he thought that the choice would be ‘new deal or no deal’. Since the Benn Act passed he has gone very cold and in the last week the official channels and the backchannels have also gone cold.

Katy Balls

Scottish court: ‘no doubt’ that Boris will abide by law on Brexit extension

Is Boris Johnson on course to request an Article 50 extension within the fortnight? The Court of Session, Scotland's highest court, has today dismissed a legal effort to force Johnson to comply with the law (dubbed 'surrender act' in No. 10) aimed at making the government seek a Brexit extension in the event of a no deal. Only the reason the judge in question ruled that there was no need for 'coercive orders' against the UK government is that he said there could be 'no doubt' that the prime minister had already agreed to abide by the law – after government documents submitted to the Court of Session said the prime minister would send a letter asking for an extension to Article 50 if he fails to secure a new agreement with Brussels by 19 October.

James Kirkup

Can Boris Johnson survive if he breaks his Brexit promise?

It gives me no pleasure to report this of my former Daily Telegraph colleague, but some people who know Boris Johnson don’t trust him. Whatever the Prime Minister’s other virtues, he is not seen by some acquaintances as a man who will always keep his word, who always does the things he says he will do. Polls appear to suggest that the public isn’t much more impressed with Johnson’s integrity. YouGov reckons just 24 per cent see him as “trustworthy” and the same proportion rate him as “honest”.

Ross Clark

An inheritance tax cut would backfire on the Tories

Just when you thought that the Tories were getting into a position where they might be capable of winning the formerly Labour-leaning seats in the Midlands and the North – which they will need to snatch in order to survive after next election – along comes a minister to chuck a spanner in the electoral works.  Housing minister Robert Jenrick has suggested that the government might be minded to cut or even abolish inheritance tax, complaining about its ‘fundamental unfairness’ and claiming that it amounted to ‘paying tax twice’. Disturbingly, Sajid Javid also made a hint about cutting inheritance tax at Tory conference, suggesting that it might be emerging party policy.

Robert Peston

Why Boris Johnson’s Brexit offer is probably dead

The word habitually used by EU negotiators to characterise Boris Johnson's Brexit offer is "uncertainty". They talk of "uncertainty" about how the new customs border on the island of Ireland would work, about whether all the necessary checks could really take place away from the border. They say there is "uncertainty" about whether this new customs border would undermine the principle of sustaining an all-island economy. They talk about "uncertainty" around the VAT regime for Northern Ireland and the EU. They talk about "uncertainty" about the operation of the single market for goods and food on the island of Ireland, and the proposed new checks on goods and food flowing back and forth between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

Steerpike

Watch: Jennifer Arcuri refuses to deny Boris Johnson affair six times

Jennifer Arcuri has just broken her silence on the nature of her relationship with Boris Johnson. When quizzed on whether she had an affair with the future PM by Piers Morgan on Good Morning Britain, Arcuri refused to deny it six times. Instead she told Morgan: “I’m not going to be put in a position where you weaponise my answer...What a bunch of churlish little guttersnipes”   Mr S doesn't think this story will be going away anytime soon...

Sunday

Katy Balls

Is a Brexit deal now off the table?

Is a Brexit deal agreed before October 31st a realistic possibility? Technically talks between the UK and EU are ongoing – with Emmanuel Macron saying the EU will decide by the end of the week whether a Brexit deal is possible. Meanwhile, the weekend papers have been filled with op-eds from government ministers on the need for both Brussels and MPs to get behind Boris Johnson's proposed Brexit deal. However, while Johnson appears to have made some progress with the latter group (a mix of MPs from across the spectrum have suggested they could vote for the proposal), the mood music in Brussels is gloomy. The differences between the two sides remain great.