In a provocative and unprecedented act over the past two days a Russian military “inspector” satellite has been maneuvering closer and closer to a US-registered, European-built, all-weather earth observation satellite that provides data vital for Ukraine’s war effort. It is the first time non-consensual close proximity action has been carried out in low-Earth orbit between two satellites. It has alarmed western space war fighters who see it as a hostile demonstration of future orbital conflict.
Russia is a declining space power and watches the growing military space prowess of China and the US with alarm
There can be no doubt of the intent of the mission which must have been planned for some time. On April 16 Russia launched six satellites from its Plesetsk launch site some 500 miles north of Moscow. They were given generic designations Cosmos 2609 – 2614. Their polar orbits immediately attracted the attention of the US Space Force and US Space Command’s space tracking division. Over the next few weeks the satellites carried out high-performance maneuvers to approach the ICEYE-X36 radar surveillance satellite. By May 26 Cosmos 2609 passed within 1.5 miles of it then backed off. Such a distance would allow detailed imaging to be obtained. But the stalking didn’t end there.
Cosmos 2612 went further by matching its orbit precisely with ICEYE-X36. Over the past few days, it has moved closer and on Monday morning was estimated to be only 85 feet away from it. This is close enough to observe it in detail as well as intercept its transmissions. It is a highly irresponsible act as a slight miscalculation could have resulted in a collision that could have had global implications when satellite debris was scattered around low-Earth orbit producing a hazard for other satellites for decades to come.
Western intelligence has a lot of suspicions about Russia’s “inspector” satellites and the other satellites seen testing weapons in space. In recent years some have been described as having the characteristics of a space weapon system. In June 2020 Cosmos 2543 fired a projectile that could have disabled a satellite. It also believed that they could carry out radio jamming, laser dazzling and fry a satellite’s electronics with an electromagnetic pulse.
Throughout Sunday all available telescopes and radar facilities used by the US military, as well as many amateur telescopes, watched this orbital dance. For a few hours there was concern that Russia might interfere with ICEYE-36X in some manner. Military analysts considered this unlikely as even if Russia could argue that such interference was accidental the immense effort to get Cosmos 2612 alongside was already a procedure of high jeopardy. Legally ICEYE-36X has the same status as a western ship or aircraft and while the Kremlin has provoked those it has not escalated into action. But the point has been made. Russia is saying no satellite is safe.
Russia is a declining space power and watches the growing military space prowess of China and the US with alarm. They might not have the potential to construct an equivalent of Trump’s Golden Dome defense system but they are saying that their own, lower tech abilities can be devastating.
As Max Horder wrote the Spectator wrote a few weeks ago, the US Air Force Secretary Troy Meink has admitted for the first time that the US has deployed weapons in space though he didn’t say what they were or when they were launched. With China also developing its own space weapons and procedures it is clear that space warfare is real.
Comments