Here’s an update on the state of Trumpism in America: last month, the richest man in world history threw $158 million into a last-ditch attempt to rescue the worst candidate for US Senate in American history.
It’s part of what one US media outlet is calling “Elon Musk’s massive Texas rescue mission.” But even a trillionaire’s fortune may not be able to rescue the execrable Ken Paxton from defeat on November 3.
That $158 million donation followed a $10 million gift in August from the “Elon Musk Revocable Trust” to a political action committee closely tied to Paxton.
If Paxton, the sitting Texas Attorney General, loses to Democrat James Talarico, historians will remember it as a massive defeat for Donald Trump and Trumpism. Why? Rather than endorse the incumbent, Senator John Cornyn, a moderate Republican who has been a fixture in Texas politics for three decades, Trump endorsed Paxton because, as he told a Dallas TV station a few weeks ago, Cornyn “wasn’t particularly loyal to me.”
By choosing a reliable kneeler over a proven winner, Trump may deliver something that’s eluded Texas Democrats for 32 years. No Democrat has won a Senate race in the Lone Star State since 1988. (It was Lloyd Bentsen, who went on to serve as Treasury Secretary under Bill Clinton.)
Even a trillionaire’s fortune may not be able to rescue the execrable Ken Paxton from defeat
Recent polls show that Talarico, a bachelor and former seminarian who has served in the Texas House of Representatives since 2018, leads Paxton by three points. He’s also raising enormous amounts of cash. Last week, Talarico’s campaign announced he raised a record $64 million in three months. That’s more than any Senate candidate ever in the third quarter. Overall, he has raised $134 million since launching his Senate campaign.
Meanwhile, Paxton’s fundraising effort has been dreadful. In the latest quarter, he raised $18 million, less than a third of Talarico’s total. Last week, Politico reported that national conservative groups and Republican-affiliated committees have already spent $235 million to boost Paxton’s chances against Talarico.
But money can’t fix Paxton’s record. To paraphrase what a Republican senator said earlier this year, calling Paxton ethically challenged is akin to saying Jeffrey Dahmer had an eating disorder.
In 2023, he was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House after he allegedly used his office to help an Austin-based real estate developer. Paxton was later acquitted by the Texas Senate, yet he holds the ignominious distinction of being the first statewide elected official to be impeached in Texas in more than a century. In 2024, Paxton agreed to pay about $271,000 in restitution and community service to avoid trial on fraud charges. As part of the deal, he had to complete 100 hours of community service and “take 15 hours of legal ethics courses.”
Last year, the state of Texas paid $6.6 million to four of Paxton’s former top deputies who said they were fired after reporting their boss to the FBI. Earlier this month, ProPublica and Texas Tribune found that Paxton had taken nearly 1,000 trips as attorney general while accompanied by state-funded security, costing $3.3 million. Of those, the outlets reported that only 138 of them “had a stated business purpose.” The trips included sojourns to Hawaii shortly before his family’s blind trust bought land there, and “24 trips to Utah, where the trust owns five properties; and 53 trips to Florida, where Paxton and the trust have two houses and a townhome.”
Also this month, the Wall Street Journal reported that in 2024, “Paxton partied in Dubai with two fugitives from US justice and a woman who wasn’t his wife.” One of the fugitives donated $190,000 to Paxton, including $25,000 shortly after he was indicted.
For his part, Talarico is good on the stump. He acts and talks like, well, a former seminarian. He speaks easily about his Christianity, which sells well in Texas. He’s also riding a tidal wave of discontent with Trump.
The latest Fox News poll shows Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 36 percent, the lowest of his two terms. The poll also showed Democrats leading Republicans by 9 points on a generic congressional ballot and by 26 points among independents. Crucially, it also found a big drop in Republican support among Hispanics. “While 43 percent of Hispanic voters supported Trump in the 2024 election, just 31 percent prefer the Republican candidate this year.”
Of course, many things could happen before Election Day. Musk could give millions more to Republicans. And until proven otherwise, Texas is still a solidly Republican state. (In 2024, Trump beat Kamala Harris here by nearly 14 points.)
Yet Trump is already assigning blame for a defeat that hasn’t happened. Last week, he claimed a Paxton loss to Talarico would be the fault of “weak and ineffective political hacks” like Cornyn and longtime Republican strategist Karl Rove. He also said they “should be ashamed of themselves” for not supporting Paxton.
Back in June, after losing to Paxton in an election runoff, Cornyn said that with Trump, “There’s never going to be good enough for him, other than 100%, you know, slavish adherence to whatever he wants.” He also predicted the midterm elections will be a “disaster” for Republicans and that after Democrats take control of the US House, and perhaps the US Senate, Trump will “have the most miserable two years of his life in the last two years of his term.” Those words could prove prophetic.
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