Every time I begin to see Kemi Badenoch as a plausible leader not of the Conservative party alone, but of the whole nation, something crops up to spoil it.
Don’t misunderstand me. She’s now an imaginable prime minister. Badenoch is beginning to impress not only old has-beens like me, who always wanted to admire her – though at first we struggled – but also a news media that had tended to dismiss the possibility of a strong Tory challenge. Many who weren’t fans can’t but notice a leader growing into the job. Opinion polling backs that up.
While Badenoch speaks well and has been writing impressively for newspapers like my own, the emerging regard for her capabilities is so far owed mostly to her performance at Prime Minister’s Questions. Seemingly relaxed, with the hint of a smile and an air almost of amusement, she has played with Keir Starmer like a cat with a cornered mouse.
I love the unspoken ‘Dear me, this will never do’ in her tone. There has been mischievous humour in her dismissal of a failing PM. From the backstairs of the opposition leader’s office I watched Margaret Thatcher closely over the years before her victory in 1979. I now see Badenoch already doing better than Mrs T at first seemed to. Thatcher looked nervous and sounded screechy. Badenoch is looking assured and never screeches.
So to be clear: though I may be the kind of centrist Tory whom Badenoch would regard as suspiciously wet, I want her to win. I really, really do. And I believe she can.
But so does Gavin Barwell.
From 2010 to 2017 Lord Barwell was the Conservative MP for Croydon Central. For two years he served as Theresa May’s chief of staff, earning a quiet reputation among colleagues and commentators for providing pleasant, intelligent support to a tortured prime minister in almost impossible circumstances. Approachable, measured and steadfast, he served his party and the (now) Baroness May well.
Last week, according to reports, Kemi Badenoch withdrew the Conservative whip from him. Why?
I’m not one of Gavin’s close friends but I know he is, like me, a Tory centrist. Like me, he does worry that elements on the Tory right risk alienating millions of potential Conservative voters in constituencies not only across the whole of south-east and south-west England, but in London, the Midlands and the north too.
He is right to worry. Luckily, the Liberal Democrats, who could equally appeal to many of these voters, seem careless of their own history, and under Sir Ed Davey’s leadership appear to feel flattered, when they ought to be scared, by speculation that their party might help prop up a minority Labour government after the next election. Centrist voters may be soft in their support for the Lib Dems or the Tories but, typically, they absolutely do not want a Labour government. Their detestation will surely increase under Andy Burnham as PM.
It follows that literally millions of gently, cautiously and unideologically conservative (with a small c) voters are low-hanging fruit for any version of the Tory party that doesn’t seem to be actively trying to spook them. Badenoch – ever on guard against Reform on her right – seems not to have noticed the potential to waver of voters marginally to her left. She should cast her net on the other side.
Why doesn’t she? Allow me to speculate.
Mrs B has been mightily irritated (one senses) by the emergence of a pro-Conservative movement, external to the parliamentary party, calling itself Prosper UK. Prominent Conservatives like David Gauke, Ruth Davidson and Andy Street, as well as Gavin Barwell, formed the movement in January this year.
I went to their launch meeting. They were my kind of crowd, yet I felt just a hint of reserve. There were many grey heads, much hugging and a feeling of ‘Gosh – we’re all still here!’ and it felt a bit like a tribute act to the Major/Cameron years.
Those years, though I’m proud of them, are over. Today’s challenges are new, and cry out for the flint that Badenoch brings. There may have been a few there who are uncomfortable with that, but the mood was nostalgic rather than mutinous.
Mrs T, like Mrs B, had strong views, but she took very great care to assemble a diverse crew
She, however, seems to have taken it as the latter. She has reportedly banned anyone in the parliamentary party from having anything to do with Prosper.
Brittle, so brittle. It would have been better to hug them close. Proscribing people with a lifetime’s service to her party, as if they were a hostile force, risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Now Badenoch is requiring all prospective Conservative candidates to sign a pledge to support the party’s commitment to abolish the statutory net zero target, and pull out of the European Convention on Human Rights.
When I was adopted as a Tory candidate, there was simply an assumption that one supported (and I did) the broad thrust of Tory policy proposals; there was no item-by-item Spanish Inquisition-style document to be signed in blood. These things can be fudged. The useful term ‘rethink’ can bear much weight. We and Europe should ‘rethink’ the ECHR, and Europe probably will anyway. Britain needs ‘flexibility’ on net zero, a word that doesn’t carry any hint, as ‘abolish’ might, that we’re not even bothered about global warming – because, believe me, millions of Tory voters are. Is Badenoch implying that these people should not vote Conservative?
Barwell has argued publicly against rigidity on this, but in every other way spoken supportively about her leadership. There will be other Tory peers who share his instincts. Does she really want to pick a fight with them all?
Mrs T, just like Mrs B, had clear, strong views and could impatiently brush aside colleagues who didn’t share them; but she took very great care to assemble a diverse crew, and to keep everybody on board. She understood that letting others have their say was a sign not of weakness, but of confidence. Brittleness doesn’t signal confidence. Badenoch’s doing so well. She should relax.
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