Nothing really grabs me betting-wise at Ascot or elsewhere tomorrow but the entries are out for the big races at Cheltenham’s November meeting in just two weeks’ time and I would rather try to find a bit of ante-post value over those three days.
The highlight of the third and final day of the meeting – Sunday 15 November – is the Unibet Greatwood Hurdle (3:10 p.m.) over a distance of two miles. Forty-four horses were entered for the race last week but, come the day of the contest, it may have less than its maximum permitted field of 20 runners.
We now know that HELNWEIN faced an impossible task in last year’s race in receipt of only 5lbs from trainer Joe Tizzard’s Alexei, who was then running off an official mark of just 134. Alexei finished the season rated at a lofty 158 having been fourth to Lossiemouth in the Unibet Champion Hurdle. But for a bad mistake at the last the Tizzard improver might even have been second.
So, all in all, Helnwein’s run a year ago to be second, beaten six lengths by Alexei, was a fine performance particularly as the rest of the field were seven or more lengths adrift on the soft ground. Alan King, Helnwein’s trainer, is adamant that his horse is better on good ground so, if we now have a dry fortnight, that will be a plus not a minus for his chances.
Helnwein made his seasonal debut in this race last year and that looks to be the plan again because he goes well fresh. The eight-year-old gelding can race off an official mark of 130, just 1lb higher than a year ago. Back him 1 point each way at 16-1 with either William Hill or Unibet, both paying four places.
The ante-post favourite for the Greatwood is Harry Fry’s Idaho Sun and that’s because he could be thrown in off a mark of 142. He had been due to run in the Grade 1 Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival in March, only for a stress fracture to rule him out of the race late on.
Idaho Sun had previously beaten Mydaddypaddy by more than three lengths at level weights at Aintree and the runner-up franked that form in spades in the Supreme, being beaten just a length and a half into third place by the winner Old Park Star, again at level weights.
Mydaddypaddy is now rated at 153 and so Idaho Sun looks to be a handicap snip in the Greatwood. Only his current price – he is the 4-1 favourite – stops me from backing him. It would be nice to see Fry training a potential superstar again after a couple of fairly quiet seasons.
Instead, I will go into the Greatwood double-handed with a horse, MISTER URSUS, who isn’t guaranteed to make the cut for the race of his current mark of 128. He hacked up by 11 lengths at Perth in April under Sean Bowen in an admittedly weak handicap hurdle. He has already had a prep race for the Greatwood at Newton Abbot, when third in a seven-runner field two weeks ago under an apprentice.
All ground conditions seem to come alike to this five-year-old gelding trained by Olly Murphy and the Greatwood has long been his target. Hopefully, Sean Bowen will take the ride although Murphy has entered a second horse, Indeevar Bleu, in the race too. Indeevar Bleu is classy but fragile and is only likely to run on properly soft ground.
My advice is to back Mister Ursus 1 point each way at 20-1 with bet365, a bookmaker which will return your stake if the horse fails to make the cut but is declared at the 48-hour forfeit stage. I would be very surprised if Mister Ursus goes off at 20-1 on the day. Coral and Ladbrokes are also offering those odds.
The big race on day two of the November meeting is the Paddy Power Gold Cup, a handicap chase over two miles and four furlongs and which will also have a maximum field of 20 runners.
Meetmebythesea is the ante-post favourite on the back of his fine win at the Cheltenham Festival in March when he landed the Grade 2 Jack Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase by nearly five lengths from the ill-fated Gold Dancer.
The Ben Pauling-trained gelding has gone up all of 12lbs in the official ratings for that win and that will make life much tougher on his planned return to the track on 14 November 14 (2:20 p.m.). Dan Skelton is likely to have a big say in the race too, being responsible for training seven of the 41 horses initially entered last week for the race.
At the prices, I would rather back one of the potential four Irish raiders in the shape of ZURICH, a seven-year-old course and distance winner trained by Henry de Bromhead. He won at the track last October and went on to run a decent race when sixth of 23 runners in the Sun Racing Plate Handicap Chase at the Festival, despite being hampered at the first fence.
Zurich then ran even better when second to Skelton’s Riskintheground, beaten just a neck, in the Unibet Silver Trophy Handicap Chase at Haydock in April. Admittedly, he ran moderately in his seasonal debut at Limerick earlier this month but that had all the hallmarks of a prep race for the Paddy Power.
De Bromhead has a second runner entered for the race in the shape of another course and distance winner, the mare July Flower, but I prefer the chances of Zurich. Back him 1 point each way at 16-1 with almost all major bookmakers (Unibet is the exception offering 14-1).
Next week I will be looking at the weekend Aintree card on so-called Grand Sefton Day which includes the day’s big race over the Grand National fences.
Pending:
1 point each way Zurich at 16-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, paying ¼ odds 4 places.
1 point each way Helnwein at 16-1 for the Greatwood Hurdle, paying ¼ odds 4 places.
1 point each way Mister Ursus at 20-1 for the Greatwood Hurdle, paying ¼ odds 4 places.
2 points win Jordans at 16-1 for the Grand National 2027.
Last weekend: + 0.32 points.
1 point each way Traprain Law at 4-1 for the squareintheair.com Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. 2nd (Rule 4, 10p in the £ deduction). – 0.28 points.
1 point each way De Temps En Temps at 15-2 for the William Hill Epic Boosts Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. 3rd. + 0.5 points
2026 flat season: + 21.994 points on all tips.
2025-26 jumps season: – 57.785 points on all tips.
2025 flat season: + 84.12 points on all tips.
2024-5 jumps season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Total for eight full seasons of tipping: + 90.209 points on all tips.
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