Tomorrow’s bet365 Cambridgeshire (3.40 p.m.) is a cavalry charge up the straight course at Newmarket and it is almost certain that the field will split into at least two groups. However, as with Ascot’s straight course, it is not always possible to predict whether high or low numbers will be favoured.
Pace plays a key role as well and, if one side goes off too fast, the horses leading that group will pay a penalty for their early exertions in the final furlong or two. For the last two years, horses drawn low came out best in the race, whereas in 2023 horses drawn high filled the first three places.
I put up one horse for the race four weeks ago: Hard Endeavor, each way at 40-1. He is now less than half those odds and he will come out of stall 8, with David Egan in the saddle. If low numbers were to hold sway, he would have a good chance of landing the spoils.
It certainly looks as if the horses with the strongest form are generally drawn high
Trainer John Gosden has a good record in this race and, now that he has teamed up with his son Thady on his trainer’s licence, they will be hoping for a big run from the race favourite, Gavriel.
North Yorkshire handler Karl Burke has won the last two runnings of the Cambridgeshire with horses weighted 9 stone 12 lbs. Tomorrow he goes for a hattrick of wins with Thunder Run, the top weight off 10 stone.
It certainly looks as if the horses with the strongest form are generally drawn high: Gavriel (28), Indalo (26), Erzindjan (25) and Hand of God (24). All four have been well supported in the market too in recent days.
However, I want to go into such a competitive race double-handed with another horse drawn high in the shape of trainer James Owen’s ASMEN WARRIOR, who is drawn in berth 21. This four-year-old gelding has top form at Newmarket on fast ground, including when routing a decent field of handicappers on his penultimate start.
The excellent Marco Ghiani takes the ride and, as one regular contributor (Vincent HRD) to the Penworthy comment section points out, this jockey has a superb Return On Investment (ROI) relating to his rides this season.
Asmen Warrior was slightly disappointing last time out at Ascot in July behind Hickory but I like the fact that he has been kept fresh since, presumably with connections having a tilt at the Cambridgeshire in mind. Back Asmen Warrior 1 point each way at 25-1 with Boylesport, paying six places. 22-1 is readily available with other bookies also paying six places and this horse could drift over the next day or two as he does not come from a gambling yard.
In today’s Group 2 Betway Rockfel Stakes (Newmarket 2.25 p.m.), the Roger Varian-trained MISS MINIVER has plenty to find on official ratings compared with the top-rated horses such as Sugar Yes Please and Light Of Dawn.
However, I suspect the form of her win in a modest maiden at Salisbury could turn out to be much stronger than it initially looked. Back Miss Miniver 1 point each way at 13-2 with Sky Bet, paying four places (one more than other bookies).
Up at Haydock, I am hoping the rain stays away and the ground dries up because my fancy for tomorrow’s William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap (2.10 p.m.) has all of his best form on quick ground.
HUCKLESBROOK, who is lightly raced this term, and his trainer Roger Teal, who is seven wins from his last 18 runners (for a strike rate or nearly 40 per cent), are hitting form. Teal seems unconcerned, too, by the prospect of soft ground for his charge.
As regular readers will know, I am always happy to have a competent woman jockey riding one of my tips and Joanna Mason falls into that category. In fact, she rode Hucklesbrook to victory in July last year in a competitive 17-runner handicap at York. Back Hucklesbrook 1 point each way at 7-1 with William Hill, paying four places.
Next week I will looking at both the weekend card at Ascot and possible ante-post bets for the British Champions Day meeting later in October at the same course.
Pending:
1 point each way Miss Miniver at 13-2 for the Rockfel Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Hucklesbrook at 7-1 for the Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Hard Endeavor at 40-1 for the Cambridgeshire, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Asmen Warrior at 25-1 for the Cambridgeshire, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Gooloogong at 33-1 for the Godolphin Cesarewitch, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
Last weekend: – 4.84 points.
2 points win Learning at 14-1 for the Dubai Duty Free Full Of Surprises Stakes. 2nds – 2 points.
1 point each way Paddy The Squire at 12-1 for the Dubai Duty Free Handicap, paying 1/5 odds, 4 places. 2nd (Rule 4, 10p in the £). + 1.16 points.
1 point each way Caburn at 40-1 for the Ayr Gold Cup, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Twilight Calls at 10-1 for the Ayr Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places. – 2 points.
2026 flat season running total: + 35.584 points.
2025-26 jumps season: – 57.785 points on all tips.
2025 flat season: + 84.12 points on all tips.
2024-5 jumps season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Total for seven full seasons of tipping before this one: + 68.215 points on all tips.
2026 flat season running total: + 12.225 points.
2025-26 jumps season: – 57.785 points on all tips.
2025 flat season: + 84.12 points on all tips.
2024-5 jumps season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Total for seven full seasons of tipping: + 68.215 points on all tips.
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