The arrival of a new flat season is exciting but, for betting purposes, I prefer to stick to the jumps. On the flat in late March and April, it is so hard to know which trainers have their horses fit enough to do themselves justice and which do not. Since most handlers are still in the dark on their horses’ racecourse fitness, what chance do punters have?
This weekend’s National Hunt fare is, in all honesty, modest so instead I will try to identify some value over the two big meetings that are on the horizon linked to the two Grand Nationals at Aintree and Fairyhouse.
First up is a long shot for the Randox Topham Handicap Case on Friday, 10 April, a race run over the Grand National brush fences the day before the big race itself. PRAIRIE WOLF landed his third win from his last four races at Newbury last weekend and, even at the age of nine, seems to be an improving gelding.
Aintree will water to ensure the ground is at least ‘good to soft’ if the rain stays away
Joint trainers Joe Parkinson and Sue Smith are having a fine season with 38 winners from 201 runners for a strike rate of 19 per cent. The former tells me that Prairie Wolf has come out of the Newbury race in good form, the Topham is his target and the horse has schooled well over National-type fences at home.
Two miles five furlongs on ground that is the soft side of good would be ideal for Prairie Wolf and he currently has a lovely racing weight of 10 stone 3 lbs. Back him one point each way at 33-1 with either Ladbrokes or Coral, both offering four places.
A year ago, I came close to landing the BoyleSports Irish Grand National with the veteran Any Second Now, put up each way at 25-1. In fact, as his name suggests, he had to settle for second behind the well-handicapped Welsh-trained raider Haiti Couleurs.
This year I like the look of another experienced campaigner whom I was surprised to see is only nine years old despite the fact that he seems to have been around for ever.
STUMPTOWN is best known for his exploits over cross-country fences at Cheltenham as well as for winning last year’s famous Pardubice cross-country contest run in the Czech Republic.
It is possible that the horse may not have enough speed for races run over the more conventional fences but he has a nice enough mark of 149 for the Boylesport Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse on Easter Monday (6 April) and trainer Gavin Cromwell says this race is the target. Back him one point each way at 33-1 with William Hill, paying four places.
Finally, having learnt the horse’s next target, I am going to have another bet in the Randox Grand National at Aintree on Saturday 11 April. I had thought that NOW IS THE HOUR might be aimed at the Irish National rather than the Aintree contest but his handler, Gavin Cromwell, says he favours the latter race.
Now Is The Hour is best on very soft ground but he was supplemented for the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival earlier this month where, despite the drying ground, he ran a cracker to be fifth, beaten less than six lengths behind the winner Kitzbuhel. That was a career-best performance.
Now Is The Hour, a nine-year-old gelding, is going to be even better over a longer trip and so the marathon distance of the Grand National could be perfect for him. Aintree will water to ensure the ground is at least ‘good to soft’ if the rain stays away, but if it did come up ‘soft’ or ‘heavy’, the horse’s chances would be significantly increased.
Now Is The Hour was slightly fortunate to win the Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park in January, when the leader unseated his rider at the last fence, but that was still a huge run.
Back him one point each way at 33-1 with bet365, only as this bookie is offering the biggest available price on the horse, five places and, all importantly, the comfort blanket of Non Runner No Bet (NRNB). If, as seems likely, Now Is The Hour runs on 11 April, I doubt that he will be 33-1.
Anyway, by sheer coincidence, those are three sporting 33-1 shots, all nine-year-old geldings, for those who, like me, enjoy an ante-post bet and who want to stick to the jumps for another month or so.
Last weekend – 1.4 points.
1 point each way Cecilia Star at 7-1 in the Castle Windows Newbury Anniversary Novices’ Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Captain Butler at 10-1 for the BetWright Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. 4th (but Rule 4, 20p in £). + 0.6 points.
Pending:
1 point each way Stumptown at 33-1 for the Irish Grand National, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Prairie Wolf at 33-1 for the Topham, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
2 points win Grangeclare West at 10-1 NRNB for the Aintree Grand National.
1 point each way Now Is The Hour at 33-1 NRNB for the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
2025-26 jumps season: running total – 31.185 points
2025 flat season: + 84.12 points on all tips.
2024-5 jumps season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Total for six full seasons of tipping: + 126 points
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