Tim Shipman

Tim Shipman

Tim Shipman is political editor of The Spectator.

Thursday

Tim Shipman

Can Keir Starmer fend off Labour’s big beasts?

It was the chronicle of a death foretold. Last year Keir Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, drafted a memo for his boss spelling out in the starkest terms How Labour Could Fail. This week, instead of celebrating the first anniversary of Labour’s landslide election victory, the two men revisited that analysis and reflected on its prescience. McSweeney may be in the firing line of Labour backbenchers angry at Downing Street’s mishandling of welfare reform, but he was eerily accurate in predicting the problems that this administration would face. ‘The only task Labour finds harder than taking power from the Conservatives is keeping it,’ McSweeney warned.

Tuesday

Tim Shipman

Welfare vote: how many will rebel?

14 min listen

It’s D-Day for Labour’s welfare reforms. MPs will vote tonight on the party’s watered-down benefits cuts. Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall formally announced Labour’s climbdown yesterday, telling MPs that the government had ‘listened carefully’ and was bringing in ‘positive changes’. Well, that’s one way of putting it. Even so, Labour is braced for a rebellion from dozens of MPs. We’ll know the full number at around 7pm, but it is not expected that there will be the 83 required to overturn the government’s majority. On today’s podcast, we take you inside the debate including some of the most notable speeches and what the fallout could be for the government. Can we expect a reshuffle in the near future? Should Keir Starmer watch his back?

Monday

Tim Shipman

Does Starmer still want to be PM?

13 min listen

There have been a number of navel-gazing interviews with the Prime Minister over the weekend. Across thousands and thousands of words, he seems to be saying – if you read between the lines – that he doesn't particularly enjoy being PM. In better news, Labour seems to have quelled the welfare rebellion. Liz Kendall is making a statement in the Commons this afternoon, in which she will outline the concessions that Labour has made on its controversial welfare bill. All in, the cost has spiralled by £3 billion per calendar year – which an already put-upon Chancellor will have to find. Whilst it remains the largest rebellion of this government, the number of rebels has shrunk to around 50.

Friday

Tim Shipman

Peter Frankopan, Tim Shipman, Francis Pike, Hermione Eyre and George Young

42 min listen

On this week’s Spectator Out Loud: Peter Frankopan argues that Israel’s attack on Iran has been planned for years (2:00); just how bad are things for Kemi Badenoch, asks Tim Shipman (13:34); Francis Pike says there are plenty of reasons to believe in ghosts (21:49); Hermione Eyre, wife of Alex Burghart MP, reviews Sarah Vine’s book How Not To Be a Political Wife: A Memoir, which deals with Vine’s marriage to ex-husband Michael Gove (28:46); and, George Young reports on the French sculptors building the new Statue of Liberty (34:45). Produced and presented by Patrick Gibbons.

Thursday

Tim Shipman

Why has a leak inquiry been launched into Hermer’s legal advice?

I have now been told by four people in government that a leak inquiry is being conducted into the revelations in last week’s magazine that Lord Hermer, the attorney general, had written legal advice on the American bombing of Iran which made it difficult for Keir Starmer to support attacks to degrade Iran’s nuclear weapons programmes. I quoted a source who had seen the advice as saying: ‘The AG has concerns about the UK playing any role in this except for defending our allies.’ Others who followed up my piece suggested that if the Americans asked the government for permission to use the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean to launch their bunker busters, it might have to be declined, since Hermer does not believe it fulfils the doctrine of self-defence.

Tim Shipman

Who’s having a worse week: Keir or Kemi?

20 min listen

It’s bad news all round for Labour and the Tories. An MRP poll out today forecasts that if an election were held tomorrow, Labour would not only lose its majority, but fall behind Reform to become the second-largest party. The Conservatives would be reduced to a mere 46 seats, placing them fourth behind the Lib Dems. But that’s just the beginning of their collective woes. On the Labour side – despite Keir Starmer’s charm offensive and ongoing talks with Labour MPs about potential changes to welfare policy – the number of rebels appears to be growing. The feeling increasingly is that someone might have to go, and calls for ‘regime change’ splash the Times. Is time up for Morgan McSweeney?

Tim Shipman

‘It’s Liz Truss territory’: how bad are things for Kemi Badenoch?

Around 5 p.m. on Monday one of Kemi Badenoch’s aides was having a drink with a friend in the Two Chairmen pub in Westminster. Over a pint of IPA he explained how the Conservative leader was planning to thrust herself more forcefully into the public conversation. ‘We know the pace needs to quicken,’ he admitted. ‘Reform are sucking up the political oxygen.’ Badenoch inherited a ‘party on its knees’, the basics of which needed overhauling. ‘We’d love to be doing more fun viral social media stuff, but Kemi is sitting down and getting on with it.

Monday

Tim Shipman

Does the government support Trump’s Iran strikes?

13 min listen

The weekend saw the US launch airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites, with Tehran warning of ‘everlasting consequences’. Despite an emergency Cobra meeting and Luke Pollard’s morning media round, we are still waiting for an answer on whether the government supports Trump’s action. Keir Starmer’s assured and confident position on the world stage now looks to be in peril, as he is pulled between Trump, his attorney general and the court of public opinion. Can he de-escalate? Also on the podcast, Nigel Farage delivered a speech this morning in which he announced changes to non-doms and unveiled a new ‘Britannia card’ – although most of the questions afterwards centred on the situation in the Middle East.

Thursday

Tim Shipman

Starmer at sea, Iran on the brink & the importance of shame

46 min listen

Starmer’s war zone: the Prime Minister’s perilous position This week, our new political editor Tim Shipman takes the helm and, in his cover piece, examines how Keir Starmer can no longer find political refuge in foreign affairs. After a period of globe-trotting in which the Prime Minister was dubbed ‘never-here Keir’, Starmer’s handling of international matters had largely been seen as a strength. But as tensions escalate in the Iran–Israel conflict, global events are beginning to create serious challenges. They threaten not only to derail the government’s economic plans but also to deepen divisions within the Labour party, particularly between the leadership and much of the parliamentary party. Tim joined the podcast alongside The Spectator US editor Freddy Gray.

Tim Shipman

The inside story of how Labour is dealing with Iran

16 min listen

This week, our new political editor Tim Shipman takes the helm and, in his cover piece, gives us the inside track on how Labour is dealing with Iran, Donald Trump and the prospect of escalating war in the Middle East. He writes that this could be the moment when all of Keir Starmer’s chickens come home to roost: his well-curated international image is at risk of crumbling as global crises present greater challenges; his hands are tied by legal advice from the controversial Lord Hermer; the Chagos Islands are being drawn into the US’s retaliation plans; and there remains the looming threat of backbench rebellion over Labour’s national security strategy. Tim is joined by James Heale and Lucy Dunn to discuss what may be Starmer’s biggest test yet.

Tim Shipman

Starmer’s war zone: the Prime Minister is in a perilous position

Sir Keir Starmer was alerted in the early hours of Friday by his national security adviser, Jonathan Powell, that Israel’s assault on Iran was ‘under way’. The Prime Minister got a text message while in his flat above No. 11. It was not a bolt from the blue. Downing Street has not said so publicly, but the government was told in advance what was coming. Publicly, Starmer’s relentless emphasis has been on ‘de-escalation’ of the crisis. Privately, ministers have been expecting an Israeli offensive since December. David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, led a cross-Whitehall tabletop war-gaming exercise into how events might unfold on Monday last week, four days before the first air strikes.

Tuesday

Tim Shipman

Can you ‘take the politics out’ of the grooming gangs scandal?

13 min listen

Yesterday Yvette Cooper announced a national inquiry into the grooming gangs scandal after the Casey Review found that a disproportionate number of Asian men were responsible and that governments and authorities had failed to step in over fears of racism. Anxious to press Labour on their U-turn – memorably, Starmer accused the Tories of ‘jumping on the far-right bandwagon’ – Kemi Badenoch held a press conference, joined by victims of the gangs. ‘I’m not doing politics now, when I’m in the Houses of Parliament, when I’m in the Commons, I will do politics’, she said. But can you really take the politics out of the grooming gangs scandal? Elsewhere, Donald Trump has fled the G7.

Wednesday

Tim Shipman

Spending review: smoke, mirrors and no strategy

10 min listen

There were few surprises in Rachel Reeves’s spending review today. Health was the big winner, with a £29bn increase in day-to-day spending and £39bn was announced to build social and affordable housing. The main eyebrow-raiser was the announcement that the Home Office will end the use of hotels for asylum seekers within this parliament; this could save £1bn or it could become Labour’s ‘stop the boats’ moment. The bigger picture was confusing – with increases measured against levels three years ago, is there really as much cash as Rachel Reeves wants you to think there is? And what’s the strategy behind it all?

Friday

Tim Shipman

Local elections live: is Reform unstoppable?

15 min listen

The word ‘unprecedented’ is often overused in politics, but these local elections have proved to be just that. The headline is: sweeping success for Reform.  Nigel Farage's 'teal tsunami' comes at the expense of the main parties – turning the two-party consensus on its head. The recriminations for Labour and the Tories have already begun. On the left, a number of MPs have broken cover and urged the government to shift its position on high-salience issues such as winter fuel. On the right, Kemi Badenoch’s leadership is looking increasingly shaky, with Tory MPs and staff warning that a step change is needed. Where do the main parties go from here? And can anyone stop Nigel?

Saturday

Tim Shipman

Is the Tory psychodrama over?

17 min listen

Tim Shipman, chief political commentator at The Sunday Times, joins Katy Balls to discuss his new book, Out: How Brexit Got Done and the Tories Were Undone. The final instalment in Shipman's Brexit quartet, the book goes behind the scenes in Westminster to reveal the warring factions at the heart of Boris Johnson's government. Considering all of this, has the Tory party left this era of controversy and backstabbing behind? Or, with a new leader, is there a whole new chapter to come?

Thursday

Tim Shipman

The Xi files: how China spies

38 min listen

This week: The Xi files: China’s global spy network. A Tory parliamentary aide and an academic were arrested this week for allegedly passing ‘prejudicial information’ to China. In his cover piece Nigel Inkster, MI6’s former director of operations and intelligence, explains the nature of this global spy network: hacking, bribery, manhunts for targets and more. To discuss, Ian Williams, author of Fire of the Dragon - China's New Cold War, and historian and Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins joined the podcast.. (02:05) Next: Lara and Gus take us through some of their favourite pieces in the magazine, including Douglas Murray’s column and Gus’s interview with the philosopher Daniel Dennett.

Tim Shipman

Hyper-history: why did politics go crazy?

On the day Theresa May signed her Brexit withdrawal agreement with Brussels, Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, resigned. She tried to dragoon Michael Gove, a leader of the Brexit campaign, into taking the job. Dominic Cummings, the erstwhile campaign director of Vote Leave, persuaded Gove to resign rather than take the job. It was mayhem. That day Cummings texted a friend in Westminster to say: ‘Sometimes nothing happens for years. Sometimes years happen in days.’ The phrase was originally Lenin’s, though he referred to ‘decades’ rather than years – but it was apt for the almost revolutionary cascade of events unleashed by the EU referendum of 2016, which we are still living with eight years later.

Saturday

Thursday

Tim Shipman

Never-ending stories

I spent a bit of time last week on the set of the new Brexit film, which James Graham has written for Channel 4. My book on the referendum has been plundered by the new production, so it was fascinating seeing real events given life again, in several pitch-perfect performances. The subject of conversation on set was the public slating of a leaked (early) copy of the script earlier that week. Most agitated of the slaters was Carole Cadwalladr, the Observer reporter who has made her name by uncovering malfeasance around the use of data in politics and the financing of the referendum. ‘It’s profoundly wrong on every level,’ she moaned. ‘It’s wilfully misleading the public.

Tuesday

Tim Shipman

The seven ways ‘Remain’ could have won the EU referendum

Trying to write the first draft of history on the EU referendum and the leadership mess that followed had both its dramatic and its comic elements. My phone never stopped ringing with Eurosceptics keen to tell me why their contribution to a meeting that had previously escaped my notice was the decisive factor in securing victory. But when a vote is so close — 52 per cent to 48 per cent — then it would not have taken much to push the result the other way. Donald Trump’s victory adds some credence to the idea that Brexit was pre–ordained, part of a wave of history. But the campaign turned on several events that were the result of accident, farce or both. If a relatively small number of those who backed Brexit had voted the other way, Remain would have triumphed.