Sebastian Payne

How would you bet on the outcome of the Scottish independence referendum? With Ladbrokes offering odds of 1/5 on a ‘No’ vote, its a much better return than any savings account. But should writers put a wager on something they can possibly influence? Matthew Parris discussed how he might bet with Alex Massie on our podcast last week — a conversation that has stuck in his mind. This was what Parris says on the matter in his Times column today (£): ‘Something came over me. Last Wednesday, in the middle of a debate about Scottish independence with Alex Massie, a Scottish columnist who writes for The Spectator and The Times, I was asked how I’d bet on the result of the September referendum. Obviously, I said, I’d bet on a No to independence.

Statistics can be used to prove anything, a wise man (Homer Simpson) once said. It looks like the RMT union are trying to do just that, with a new poll they've published with the claim the public supports the Tube strikes. According to a press release entitled 'Poll shows strike action against cuts justified and continued opposition to ticket office closures': ‘The survey carried out by the respected polling organisation Survation found that almost two thirds (65%) of tube users felt that lawful industrial action as a last resort was justified, with only 29% not sharing that view. A similar number (66%) were concerned at the Mayor's closure plans.’ Half of that may be true, but the polling doesn’t back up the notion that the public approve of the action.

Just over two years ago, London Tube drivers negotiated a package that took their pay to £52,000 – around £10,000 more than the average Londoner. And yet tonight these drivers, along with other Underground staff, will go on strike – over a planned overhaul of how stations operate. But will it be much of a strike? Only 30 per cent of RMT members actually backed Bob Crow’s plan to strike (60 per cent abstained) and Boris Johnson is doing a pretty good job of keeping the show on the road (or in the tunnel). Of London Underground’s 12 underground lines, 10 will be running. The trains will be less frequent, of course, perhaps five to ten minutes apart. But in general, Comrade Crow’s attempt to close the network down have failed.

Sir David Higgins is making the most of the first few weeks in his job as chief of HS2 Ltd to fight the new line's corner. In an interview in today’s Daily Telegraph, Higgins makes a strong case (arguably better than anyone from the government) for the line, explaining why there is no alternative. He warns that the existing rail lines risk becoming similar to the ‘Piccadilly line at rush hour’: ‘There are no new train paths. We’d love to put more trains on the west coast. It performs at 85 per cent. It’s a very tired, old, smartly refurbished railway line that is right at capacity. It’s the busiest mixed use railway line in Europe and it’s showing. We can’t get more trains on it.

Does Britain have a one-child policy? On this week’s View from 22 podcast, Alec Marsh discusses the death of the big middle class family. Is this a distinct policy from the government or simply families making different choices? Why are some rich and poorer families still having lots of children? Is this trend a result of the squeeze on the cost of living? Fraser Nelson also discusses the rebellious nature of Conservatives backbenchers with Douglas Carswell MP. Is now the time for Tories to toe the line and get behind David Cameron? Why has Carswell changed his mind and withdrawn his support to a disruptive amendment to the Immigration Bill? Should his colleagues do the same? Plus James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman discuss how the coalition has become an open marriage.

Douglas Carswell is one of the Conservatives' most active Euro rebels. So we invited him to our View From 22 podcast to discuss this week's leading article, which says the rebellion has descended into childish attempts to destabilise the Prime Minister. Given that he has rebelled dozens of times, we thought, he'd disagree. To our surprise, he instead told us  he has had a rather substantial change of heart — and has decided to give up rebelling. Furthermore he says that, on reflection, he regrets not only signing tomorrow's rebel amendment on immigration but Bernard Jenkin's letter to No.10 on EU regulation. Towards the end of the podcast, he poses a striking question to his fellow Eurosceptic rebels: 'What is it we now want, guys?

Professor Anthony Clifford Grayling is on top of the world. Well, Bloomsbury. Sitting in his office overlooking Bedford Square, the Master of the New College of Humanities can barely contain his self-satisfaction. ‘We have been more successful than anybody could have guessed,’ he informs me. Two years ago, ‘one of the most hated men in academia’ was the target of eggs, smoke bombs and insults when he announced a new £18,000-a-year private university. His aim was to marry the tutorial teaching model with a challenging liberal arts course — with the help of some celebrity friends. Academics, foes and friends all rounded against Grayling and willed his experiment to fail.

On 24 January 1984, Apple Computer introduced the Macintosh. Thirty years later, it’s hard at first to see what is so special about this computer. It doesn’t look much different to other competing products of the time. Housed in a squat gray box, the original Macintosh has a tiny black and white screen, no built-in storage and limited processing capabilities. It was expensive too – costing $2,495 ($5428 today) — and had very few pieces of software available. Plus it was a flop, selling way below Apple’s original expectations. But the first graphical personal computer changed how we thought about computers, and arguably, set the course for much of the late twentieth century.