Ross Clark

It is not unusual for promises made during an election campaign to fail to survive a headlong impact with reality, but if, as expected Liz Truss, announces an energy price freeze tomorrow, it will leave many Conservative party members who voted for her feeling somewhat cheated. For most of the leadership campaign Truss denounced the idea of government help with energy bills and insisted she would tackle the problem with tax cuts instead. Taxing people and then giving them some of their money back in handouts, she said, was ‘Gordon Brown economics’. Yet it now seems that not only will she spend large amounts of money to bail out householders’ energy bills, but she will seek to outdo Keir Starmer.

Look at the chart for interest rate expectations in isolation, and you might come to the conclusion that Rishi Sunak is right about Liz Truss’s fiscal policies. In June, markets were expecting rates to peak at around 3.5 per cent next year; now they are expecting them to reach close to 4.5 per cent. Moreover, as Truss’s victory came to be seen as inevitable, the FTSE 100 plunged from 7,550 on 19 August to 7,230 this morning – a fall of 4.2 per cent. The pound has fallen from $1.22 on 10 August to $1.15 now. Markets could be forgiven some apprehension But hang on a minute. Markets have been revising their interest rate expectations all year.

It is reported this morning that one of Liz Truss’s first acts as prime minister, assuming she wins the Conservative party leadership election, will be to grant new licences for North Sea oil and gas extraction. But will it be enough – and quick enough – to alleviate the energy crisis? There are still substantial known oil and gas reserves in the North Sea left to be exploited. According to a report produced by the Oil and Gas Authority last September, known reserves of oil and gas in the North Sea at the end of 2020 amounted to 4.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE). This is just a tenth of the 45.9 billion BOE which have already been extracted. However, that ignores that exploration for oil is an ongoing business.

In Europe it is handouts to help pay our energy bills – even for people who could easily afford to pay them. In the US, it is student debts being written off. With remarkable speed the West is emerging into a new age of big – no, make that huge – paternalistic government. Today, Joe Biden announced that graduates who earn less than $125,000 a year, and who live in a household whose joint income is less than $250,000, will have $20,000 worth of student debt written off. For those who work in the non-profit sector, the military, or federal or local government, the write-off will be 100 per cent.

Since June 2016 we have settled into a pattern. Whenever the pound plunges, it is followed by cries of 'I told you so'. It is all the fault of Brexit and a result of international investors fleeing Britain and taking their money elsewhere. And when the euro plunges? We hardly hear a thing. Yet today, the euro has passed a milestone which ought not to be ignored: it has fallen below parity with the dollar for the first time since 2002. It is quite a tumble given that in 2008 it was trading at $1.5. Against the pound, the euro is now back to where it was in 2012, long before Britain’s departure from the EU became a serious prospect.

There are so many house indices that they can create confusion. Last week, the Halifax house price index showed a small monthly fall. This week the government’s own index, the HPI, shows that prices rose by 7.8 per cent in the year to June, down from 12.8 per cent in the year to May. That suggests a slowing market, but then that is hardly surprising. June 2021 marked the end of Rishi Sunak’s stamp duty holiday, which created a rush of completions as buyers sought to avoid a bill of thousands of pounds. This month’s HPI marks the first time that bulge in sales has dropped out of the annual figures. This ought to be a warning sign.

Gordon Brown is demanding Parliament be recalled for an emergency budget. By October, he says, quoting a study he commissioned from the University of Loughborough, half the population could be living in fuel poverty. ‘Not enough thinking is being done about the major social crisis,’ he told Radio Four’s The World at One on Monday. The former Chancellor and Prime Minister does, of course, have every right to make what representations he wishes to the government, and no-one can call him a hypocrite for wanting the Chancellor and MPs to sacrifice their summer holidays for an emergency budget. His first holiday as PM, in 2007, famously lasted half a day before he found an excuse – a minor outbreak of foot and mouth – to return to Downing Street.