Peter Hoskin

Wednesday

Peter Hoskin

Reshuffle rumours ahoy!

From our UK edition

Plenty of Tory reshuffle speculation swirling around the Westminster washbowl today, but this from Ben Brogan is worth highlighting: "News just in: Cabinet ministers heading for PMQs seem to think that Iain Duncan Smith is about to be brought back to the Shadow Cabinet to take on James Purnell. Must be a spot of fun following the Hague thing. Cue jokes about "bald beasts" and Michael Howard returning to take on home affairs." If IDS were to return to the frontline, many would see it as a deserved reward for his excellent work with the Centre for Social Justice.

Peter Hoskin

PMQs live blog | 14 January 2009

From our UK edition

And so it returns.  The first PMQs of 2009 will be covered live by Coffee House here.  Stay tuned from 1200... 1204: Here we go.  First question from Liz Blackman [LAB], on small businesses - "Can the PM assure me that the help announced today will be focussed at those businesses who need it most".  Brown replies in the affirmative.  Naturally. 1207: Punchy start from Cameron: "Planted question; stolen policy!"  First question is one Cameron asked a few times last year: "Will the PM now admit that he was wrong to abolish boom and bust".  He says "boom" as "bost", which slightly diminishes the impact, and Brown replies with "This is a global problem ... no one in the world is copying the Tory approach ... cuts ... investment." etc.

Peter Hoskin

Are there only two members of the Shadow Cabinet who can command the media spotlight?

From our UK edition

An article in today's Times says that a return to the Tory front bench for Ken Clarke is looking increasingly likely.  But a more striking revelation is contained in this paragraph: "The Tory leader believes that the former Chancellor is the only senior Conservative, other than himself and George Osborne, who can command the media spotlight." To my eyes, there are a bunch of "senior conservatives" - including Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Eric Pickles and Nick Herbert - who are, at the very least, effective media performers.  Whether or not they "command the media spotlight" is a slightly different question.

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

The Gazan conflict is no Holocaust

From our UK edition

Last week, James highlighted Daniel Finkelstein's thoughtful, and thought-provoking, article on the Gazan conflict.  Today, Danny follows it up with a blog post outlining some of the repsonses he's received.  I'd certainly recommend you read the whole thing, but this passage makes an especially crucial point for/about those who criticise Israel's actions by bringing up the Holocaust: "The comparison [between Israeli actions in Gaza and] the Holocaust has only ceased surprising me because it is now so common. It is, nevertheless, shameful. The Nazis were attempting to exterminate all Jews. They established death camps to achieve their objectives, gassing men women and children simply to be rid of them.

Peter Hoskin

Cameron takes on the “headless chickens” of government

From our UK edition

Seems like Cameron's debuted a new riposte to Brown's "do-nothing" charge - accusing the government of behaving like "headless chickens".  Here's the Tory leader in his interview with the FT today: "The Tory leader’s anger with the prime minister appears genuine. Mr Cameron has been stung by Mr Brown’s lampooning of the Tories’ 'do-nothing' approach to the recession. Accusing the government of behaving like 'headless chickens . . . confusing activity with action', he insisted that his party had been 'pretty fast out of the box' in adapting its economic strategy to reflect the downturn." Could it stick?

Peter Hoskin

Equality overdrive

From our UK edition

Over at his blog, Paul Waugh's got the lowdown on one of the day's most intriguing stories.  To summarise: the Government's latest White Paper (availiable here) contains a proposal from Harriet Harman that all public bodies be legally obliged to narrow the gap between rich and poor.  Here it is, from page 10 of the document: "Given the important role that public policies and services play in supporting individuals to make the most of their talents, we will consider legislating to make clear that tackling socio-economic disadvantage and narrowing gaps in outcomes for people from different backgrounds is a core function of key public services." I suspect I'm not alone in shuddering at the thought.  Of course, reducing inequality is an extremely important cause.

Monday

Peter Hoskin

Times / Populus has the Tories 10 points clear

From our UK edition

A second opinion poll for the New Year, then, and another which suggests that the Brown bounce is over and that things may be swinging the way of the Tories.  Here are the headline results from the Populus number in the Times: Conservatives --- 43 percent (up 4) Labour --- 33 percent (down 2) Lib Dems --- 15 percent (down 2) More progress for the Tories in some of the below-headline findings.  Brown and Cameron are tied, 37 percent each, on the question of who is the best leader to deal with the recession - Brown led 52-32 a couple of months back.  And Cameron leads Brown 42-31 on which party leader's best to take Britain forward after the next general election.  All in all, I guess this one will raise a few smiles in CCHQ.

Peter Hoskin

Great poster, Dave – but you may be missing an opportunity

From our UK edition

Fraser's right: the Tories' new poster campaign really is superb. Highlighting the damage that Gordon Brown's debt binge will wreak on future generations is an important - and resonant - cause.  And the emotive image and slogan that the Tories' ad men have paired together should tap successfully into the parental voting bloc. But therein also lies a problem.  Campaigns about debt are all too often geared at those with - or those with hope of having - children.  As I argued in the Telegraph a few weeks ago, this is a missed opportunity.

Peter Hoskin

The groundwork for a post-recession economy

From our UK edition

Trevor Kavanagh's Monday column in the Sun is always one of the week's best reads - but today's is even better than usual.  It contains most of today's major political and economic questions in a nutshell, and offers some useful pointers on how to resolve them.  I'd recommend you read it all, but here's a key passage from towards the end: "One day this slump will end — but only if Britain finds new motors for economic growth to replace the bankrupt City and punch-drunk consumers. The Tories should be asking why, if we really must double the national debt, don’t we spend it on something useful? Like raising the starting point for income tax by £5,000 a year — instantly hauling millions out of poverty and reliance on welfare?

Peter Hoskin

Will Brown’s job scheme work?

From our UK edition

Jobs, jobs, jobs.  That's what you'll be hearing from the Government today, as Gordon Brown hosts a jobs summit in London and outlines his government's plans to get people back into work during the downturn.  From the details I've seen so far, those plans sound like an extension of existing New Deal practices - financial incentives (of up to £2,500) for companies which take on new workers; extra training places; and targeted help for those who have been unemployed for over six months.  According to the Times, it will all cost around £500 million. Another thing you'll hear is the "do nothing" chant repeated ad nauseam.

Sunday

Peter Hoskin

Is Cameron a born-again waste cutter?

From our UK edition

I've only just round to watching Cameron's interview with Marr earlier (on iPlayer here).  'Tis a shame it was interrupted by so many technical problems, as it was shaping up to be one of the Tory leader's most engaging performances of recent months.  Still, plenty of noteworthy points in there; perhaps none more so than this admission from Cameron: "I see how unaffordable Labour's spending plans are - perhaps we could have seen that earlier." It is one of the great, missed political opportunities of the past decade that the Government didn't come to fear a "Labour waste" attack from the Tories as much as the Tories came to fear Labour's "Tory cuts" attack.  Cameron now seems to recognise this.

Peter Hoskin

Milburn’s return highlights the “big beast” conundrum

From our UK edition

Alan Milburn's return to Labour's "senior team" is another arresting punctuation mark in Gordon Brown's premiership.  Sure, he may not have been brought back into the Cabinet as Peter Mandelson was.  But his role as the head of a new commission looking into social mobility - which James commented upon earlier - shows that the Dear Leader is smiling down on yet another of his former enemies.  The party politics are clear: bridges are being built, and New Labour is reuniting for the sake of a (still unlikely) Fourth Term. It also highlights the "big beast" conundrum that more or less all of the parties are facing at the moment.  The times call not only for experienced hands and actual government/opposition of all the available talents, but also for Obama-esque change.

Peter Hoskin

The recession-proof civil servants

From our UK edition

A recession is a time for belt-tightening.  But, going off the the Sunday Times's cover story this morning, some leading civil servants didn't get that memo.  They're engaging in exactly the same sort of snout-in-trough-ery that we normally see coming from Parliament - and all courtesy of taxpayers' money.  Here's the case of David Nicholson: "David Nicholson, the head of the NHS, claims an annual £37,600 allowance for working away from home - yet he was already working and living in London when he took the job three years ago, so did not have to relocate. Nicholson was head of NHS London, and had a flat in the centre of the city, when he was moved to his highly paid London-based post in charge of the National Health Service in 2006.

Friday

Peter Hoskin

Osborne on the front foot against “do nothing” Brown

From our UK edition

I've only just got around to reading George Osborne's speech at Policy Exchange earlier today, and I'd recommend you check it out if you haven't already (there's a full text here).  Quite simply, it's one of more confident and coherent statments that the shadow chancellor's made during the downturn; full of effective attacks on Brown's economic management, as well as - crucially - a few sensible suggestions to help the financial system recover.  The Tories aren't yet ticking every box - I still think too few politicians, beyond Nick Clegg, are sticking up for the least well-off in society - but this is certainly an improvement.

Peter Hoskin

The cost of selling the EU

From our UK edition

While we're discussing Rand (here and here) and the dangers of bureaucratisation and centralisation, it's worth pointing out this astonishing fact from Open Europe's latest bulletin: "Open Europe has published new research which shows that the EU is spending billions of euros a year on initiatives to promote itself and its central aim of 'ever closer union'.  In 2008 alone, it spent more than 2.4 billion euros, which is more than Coca Cola's global advertising budget." The accompanying report can be read here.

Peter Hoskin

Why is Ayn Rand so isolated?

From our UK edition

Simple fact is Ayn Rand's outnumbered. For all the force and topicality of her Atlas Shrugged - Fraser's recommendation of which I heartily agree with, although I think The Fountainhead is a more effective dose of Rand's objectivism - the artistic and literary worlds seem to have much more room for works that, on some level, can be used as counterweight to Rand's philosophy.  There's plenty of literature, cinema and music which almost solely deals in the dangers of enterprise, ambition, industry and the American Dream. Now, I'm not saying there shouldn't be - after all, no social or political system's perfect, and critique is always necessary.  Besides, much of this art is excellent.

Peter Hoskin

Business leaders give Brown the thumbs-down

From our UK edition

Apologies, after my last post, for the opinion poll one-two punch, but this ComRes effort in today's Indpendent is well worth pointing out.  Only 28 percent of its business leader respondents say that they're confident in the Prime Minster's ability to manage the economy - down from 42 percent in October - and only 16 percent are confident in Alistair Darling.  The corresponding figures for Dave 'n' George are 46 and 29 percent respectively. Off the top of my head, it's the first time that the Tory pair have had a significant lead on economic credibility for a few months now.

Thursday

Peter Hoskin

A 7 point lead for the Tories

From our UK edition

And so the first poll of 2009 delivers a 7 point lead for the Tories.  Here are the headline numbers from the YouGov poll in the Sun: Conservatives --- 41 percent (-1) Labour --- 34 percent (-1) Lib Dems --- 15 percent (+1) We'll need a few more polls to get a clearer picture of the New Year standings, but I expect Team Cameron will be pleased with this showing.  Taken with the polls before Christmas, it's further evidence that the Brown bounce is either slowing or over.  And with the stormy 2009 that Brown has in store, the Tories will regard this as a base camp from which they climb even higher.

Peter Hoskin

How low can we go?

From our UK edition

Fraser's already raised the most important question hovering over today's rate cut: that is, what options are left once the rate-cutting route has been exhausted?  But there's another question in the air, touched on by Mike Smithson over at Political Betting: just how low can we go?  We're already at the lowest base rate in the Bank of England's 315 year history, and bookies are offering odds on rates hitting 0 percent by the end of the year (20/1 according to the Ladbrokes press release that hit my inbox earlier). Politically, I can't see the downwards trajectory of interest rates doing much to help Gordon Brown.

Peter Hoskin

Is Mandelson looking forward with fear or joy to Clarke’s (possible) return?

From our UK edition

With speculation mounting that Ken Clarke's set to replace Alan Duncan in a dual shadow business secretary and shadow Mandelson role, it's well worth reading Ben Brogan's blog post on what Mandy makes of it all.  By the sounds of it, the Spinmaster General's already stirring up mischief; letting it be known that he'd welcome Clarke as an adversary.  As Brogan writes: "[Mandelson] particularly likes the idea of a fellow pro-European lending weight to the campaign to get Britain (eventually, when the time is right and all conditions have been met bla bla) into the single currency." The question is what Mandelson intends with all this.  Would he really welcome Clarke back, perhaps because of the red-rag-waving it enables him to do over Europe?