Peter Hoskin

The Tories have the high ground in the advertising battle

From our UK edition

The feature on political advertising in the Independent on Sunday is both a fun and insightful read.  The party political poster mock-ups (which you can cycle through here) have been put together by some of the country's leading Mad Men; so they're a fairly good indication of the themes and images that the parties might deploy come general election time. To my eyes, they also demonstrate just how difficult it is for Labour to sell themselves during this downturn, particularly once the initial flush of Brown's world-saving narrative has faded to naught.  The Tories get the pick of the posters (cf. the Laurel & Hardy one or the eye-catching 'In the red' one) precisely because they can pin blame for the recession on the government.

A New Year’s resolution for David Cameron

From our UK edition

Thank you all for sending in your New Year's resolution suggestions for David Cameron.  We've now picked out our favourite; which comes courtesy of Robert Simpson and which, like all good New Year's resolutions, is simply phrased but also challenging and oh-so-worthwhile.  Here it is: "To resolve to produce 5 core reasons to vote Conservative which every British voter is familiar with by the next election." Congrats, Robert.  To claim your prize - a bottle of bubbly - just e-mail with your contact details on phoskin @ spectator.co.uk P.S. In case anyone's thinking that there already are 5 core reasons to vote for the Tories at the next election, think on whether "every British voter is familiar with" those reasons...

‘Tis the season for rebellion

From our UK edition

Let me offer up something that isn't quite a prediction, but more something to look out for in 2009: Labour rebellion.  There's already one brewing over Peter Mandelson's plans for Royal Mail, and - according to today's Independent - it could be pretty sizeable.  The reports are that "more than 100" Labour MPs are set to support an early day motion opposing the plans once Parliament reconvenes on 12 January.   Now, this isn't to say that this rebellion's a good thing in and of itself.  As Iain Dale wrote memorably a few weeks ago, "Peter Mandelson is right" so far as the Royal Mail reforms are concerned - and they could well get the Tory/Lib Dem support that may be necessary to drive them through.  But the point is that a rebellion will do much to undermine No.

Happy Christmas | 24 December 2008

From our UK edition

Coffee House will be going a bit quieter over the next couple of days; so just to wish CoffeeHousers a happy Christmas, and to thank you for reading and contributing over the past year. If you're looking for something to do, I'd recommend this year's Christmas short story in the magazine (here); or you could always suggest a New Year's resolution for David Cameron (here) - we'll be picking out the best on Boxing Day.

Encouraging signs for the Tories

From our UK edition

The ComRes poll in today's Independent could well be signinficant.  It puts the Tories on 39 percent (up 2); Labour on 34 percent (down 2); and the Lib Dems on 16 percent (up 2).  But it's the below-headline findings on tax and spend that really pack a punch.  Tim Montgomerie's already pulled out the key passage from the Independent article, but I'll repeat it here for the benefit of CoffeeHousers: "Asked how they would vote if the Tories committed themselves to a lower level of public spending than Labour and to try not to raise taxes – Mr Cameron's current policy – 49% said Tory, 32% Labour and 11% the Liberal Democrats.

Happy anniversary, Mandy

From our UK edition

As anniversaries go, it's a fairly ignominious one.  But it's still worth noting that Peter Mandelson's first resignation from the Cabinet - over a home loan from the then Paymaster General, Geoffrey Robinson - took place exactly ten years ago today.  For posterity's sake, here's The Spectator's leader column on the matter (from the issue dated 2 January): "This page can claim to have been prescient about Mr Mandelson. Our 9 August 1997 issue had a leader headed: `Go, and spin no more.' `Until election day, 1 May, Mr Mandelson's problem was Labour,' it began. `On 1 May, Mr Mandelson served his primary purpose. He got Labour elected. Since then, he has become something of a bar to getting it re-elected.' Mr Mandelson was then Minister without Portfolio.

A Quick exit?

From our UK edition

This from Ben Brogan: "The expectations from the Yard tonight are that Mr Quick is finished and will be quietly moved." And rightly so, I'd say.  As I suggested earlier, the key now for the Tories - at least in the short term - is to wash their hands of this Bob Quick furore / the whole issue of police politicisation.  If Quick is moved, then the Tories' position will be vindicated enough as it is.

The Tories should leave it at that

From our UK edition

Further to Fraser's post, it's worth noting that Dominic Grieve (along with David Davis) has accepted Bob Quick's apology; adding that "This does not itself in my view cast doubt on his abilities as a senior officer to do counter terrorism work."  Yes, what Quick said was both foolish and vindictive, and it reflects worryingly on the politics of the Met, but Grieve's right to draw so elegant a line under it.  There's a sense that the Tories dwelt too long and too loudly on the Damian Green affair - to the detriment of their reponse to the Pre-Budget Report - and they shouldn't want a repeat this time around. Not that newspapers (and political blogs!) won't try to keep this story running over the quiet Christmas break.

CoffeeHousers’ Wall, 22 December – 28 December

From our UK edition

Welcome to the latest CoffeeHousers' Wall. For those who haven't come across the Wall before, it's a post we put up each Monday, on which – provided your writing isn’t libellous, crammed with swearing, or offensive to common decency – you’ll be able to say whatever you like in the comments section. There is no topic, so there’s no need to stay ‘on topic’ – which means you’ll be able to debate with each other more freely and extensively. There’s also no constraint on the length of what you write – so, in effect, you can become Coffee House bloggers. Anything’s fair game – from political stories in your local paper, to chat about the latest football results.

The backtracking begins in earnest

From our UK edition

After visiting Downing Street, Kevin Maguire beats the drum for Brown in today's Mirror.  To spare CoffeeHousers the details about how our PM is "brimming with ideas" and how he puts in "Herculean" 12-hour days, here's the key passage from towards the end of the article: "[Brown] hinted that a Treasury forecast of recovery in the second half of 2009 may prove optimistic after the cheating Dickensian Mr Merdles' of modern finance crashed the economy." The growth forecasts in the Pre-Budget Report have been widely condemned as fanciful, and the expectation is that they'll be sharply downgraded in the next Budget.

Is the cat slowly creeping out of the bag?

From our UK edition

I know, I know; all the election speculation's starting to get tiresome - if it wasn't already tiresome weeks ago.  But it's still worth noting the comments of one of Brown's closest allies, Charlie Whelan, who's suggested that June 2009 will be an "ideal opportunity" for the PM to hold an election. His thinking is that Brown will be boosted by the world economic summit being held in London in May, and which will be attended by one President Obama. Photo-ops galore, I guess.  Whelan's proximity to Brown - he's rumoured to have been attending pre-election meetings with the Brownite inner circle, as well as having coffee with Mandy - lends his thoughts extra significance.

Pete suggests | 20 December 2008

From our UK edition

Books I'm just coming to the end of Ahmed Rashid's compelling book on the conflict in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region, Descent into Chaos.  It's an essential brew of fine research, persuasive analysis and lively prose - all in all, it feels definitive. The best work of fiction I've read and re-read this year - John O'Hara's Appointment in Samarra - is a great Christmas book, set as it is over the Festive Season.  I have a habit of evangalising about O'Hara's work, so - to spare you - I'll just point you towards my comments on the novel for the Spectator Book Club's Christmas Book List. Film There's not too much to get excited about in cinemas at the moment, so home video's probably the way forward.

Sticking up for savers

From our UK edition

An effective article by George Osborne in this morning's Telegraph, sticking up for savers and pensioners. It's well worth reading the whole thing, but here's the first couple of paragraphs: "Over the past year, someone with £10,000 of savings in an easy access high street account has seen their income fall from £50 a month to less than £25. Having planned for their retirement and put money aside for a rainy day, pensioners and savers are seeing their living standards fall. Those who weren't caught up in Gordon Brown's Age of Irresponsibility are being made to pay the price for it. Of course, cuts in interest rates by the Bank of England are absolutely necessary to try to restimulate the economy. That is why we called for them.

A dangerous precedent?

From our UK edition

So, is bailing out Jaguar an urgent necessity or a dangerous precedent?  According to the papers this morning, Business ministers - marshalled, of course, by Peter Mandelson - are veering towards the former viewpoint, while the Treasury veers towards the latter.  If so, I'm with HMT on this one.  Although Mandy warned yesterday that the Government doesn't have an "open chequebook", the framework he's created - i.e. as Robert Peston puts it, "he would only save businesses that are of strategic importance to our economy and would be sound in a world where credit was flowing freely" - implies that countless other companies will be able to make demands for taxpayers' cash, and at a time when the public finances are hardly in great shape.

Now it’s the Archbishop’s turn to give Brown a kicking

From our UK edition

And the Quote of the Day belongs to Rowan Williams.  Here's what he said to the Beeb earlier on Gordon Brown's borrowing binge: "I worry a bit about that, it seems a little like the addict returning to the drug." Say what you will about the Archbishop getting involved in politics, but this is manna from heaven for the Tories.  First it was the Germans and now it's the Church.  The list of detractors to Brown's economic approach grows longer by the day...

May responds

From our UK edition

Here are Theresa May's answers to the questions put forward by CoffeeHousers: john miller "Why have Government ministers been able to spout the most outrageous lies over the last few months, effectively unopposed by the Conservatives? The Tories seem to lack a short succinct rebuttal that gives a voice to the feelings of the public." On the contrary, I think we have shown ourselves to be highly effective in opposition, continually questioning the government’s actions and putting forward a coherent alternative.  There are people who have vowed to vote Conservative in the next election who would never even have considered us before.

Christmas culture picks

From our UK edition

I've just uploaded my set of culture recommendations, which you can read here.  If CoffeeHousers have any culture picks of their own, please give them a mention in the comments section to this post.