Peter Hoskin

Poll-wise, it’s starting to look like summer 2008 again

From our UK edition

A poll to delight the Tories in today's Times.  The Populus effort has them on 42 percent (down 1 percentage point on last month); Labour on 28 percent (down 5); and the Lib Dems on 19 percent (up 3).  That matches Labour's total in two other recent polls, and suggests they're starting to plumb similar depths to last summer.  Cameron now also leads on the question of which leader is best to deal with the recession, by 41-32 over Brown.  And he's ahead, as normal, on taking Britain forward after the recession. Perhaps the most eyecatching finding, though, is the rise in support for the 'Other' parties such as UKIP and the BNP - they've gained 3 percentage points since last month, to hit 12 percent.  Of course, this could be a statistical outlier.

The Balls forecast

From our UK edition

Remember the general hoo-haa when Gordon Brown accidentally referred to a "global depression" in PMQs last week?  Well, now Ed Balls has surpassed His Master's Slip-up, and by some distance.  Here's what the Schools Minister told Labour's Yorkshire conference at the weekend: "The economy is going to define our politics in Britain in the next year, the next five years, the next 10 and even the next 15 years. These are seismic events that are going to change the political landscape. I think that this is a financial crisis more extreme and more serious than that of the 1930s and we all remember how the politics of that era were shaped by the economy. We now are seeing the realities of globalisation, though at a speed, pace and ferocity which none of us have seen before.

Dodging the split story

From our UK edition

Do take the time to read through the Independent's Q&A with Ken Clarke today.  Beyond his classic answer to the question "What was your biggest mistake as Chancellor of the Exchequer?" (clue: it involves malt whisky), the most noteworthy thing is how ably he dodges the numerous, inevitable, "split" questions.  There's the stock reponse of "I have no intention to change or challenge the party's policy on x", but he mixes in a few tongue-in-cheek curveballs, which do a great job of defusing the situation.  This has to be one of them: In December you came out against supporting marriage through the tax system. David Cameron feels differently. Have you changed your mind?

Just what we need – another committee

From our UK edition

Forgive me for being exasperated, but Team Dave's latest Big Announcement is just plain exasperating.  An Economic Recovery Committee to - and I quote the press release - "review and analyse the economic situation"; "discuss immediate policy proposals to deal with the current crisis"; and "coordinate strategy for the long term reconstruction of Britain's economy"?  Now, it all sounds well and good - and something may come out of it.  But it's little more than slapping a name on something that the Tories should - and will - be doing already, and packaging it as something new.  It was cynical enough when Brown did it, with his National Economic Council, but it's even more cynical to then follow his dubious lead.

No credit where it’s due

From our UK edition

However hard he tries, and however much taxpayers' cash he throws at the problem, Gordon Brown just can't seem to get credit flowing to UK businesses.  Here are details of two surveys, released today, from today's FT: Conferederation of British Industry survey: "While 63 per cent of businesses who had sought new credit said its availability had worsened in the past three months, 59 per cent said they expected it to be harder to access in the next three months." Federation of Small Businesses survey: "Many small businesses told the trade association that banks had turned down their applications for government-guaranteed credit. Others complained that public sector bodies were ignoring a government pledge to pay in 10 days. And almost all said that a 2.

How far we’ve fallen

From our UK edition

To be honest, I don't often stray into the Sunday Times Travel supplement, so I'm not sure whether their 'Holiday Money' table - setting out the exchange rates between Sterling and a host of foreign currencies, as well as the position they were in a year ago - is a regular inclusion or not.  But it caught my eye this morning.  Sure, the fall of Sterling is hardly news, but we often hear about it in terms of dollars and Euros.  Seeing the prices against, say, the Kenyan shilling or the Argentinian Peso really hammers the point home.  So I've reprinted the Sunday Times table below.

Some weekend fun

From our UK edition

A fun take on the Brown-Sarkozy spat from the ConservativeHome team: Click here to go to the ConservativeHome discussion page.

Will Howard be the next Big Beast to return?

From our UK edition

Andrew Grice sets the rumour mill a-whirling with this blog post suggesting that David Cameron might ennoble Michael Howard and draft him into the Cabinet, should the Tories win the next election.  It certainly sounds plausible enough.  After all, Howard has been a key figure in Cameron's career; he's had experience of government already; and has been making some impactful media appearances over the past few weeks.  On top of that, the largely successful* return of Ken Clarke has shown the worth of having some Big Beasts around. The worry, though - particularly for current members of the Tory shadow cabinet - is that Cameron's set to go Big Beast crazy, and overlook the contributions that some of his younger recruits could make.

Grace under pressure | 6 February 2009

From our UK edition

The Flight 1549 story - the emergency landing into the Hudson river on 15 January - will never cease to amaze me.  And now the FAA releases audio tapes of the event that make it even more astonishing.  They're compelling listening, and I've embedded them below for CoffeeHousers to tune into on this weary Friday afternoon.  Captain Sullenberger's terse "We're gonna be in the Hudson...

Brown shouldn’t expect a Budget bounce

From our UK edition

A thought-provoking article from Martin Kettle in today's Guardian.  He makes the point that the worsening economy, and a heavy defeat for Labour in this year's European elections, could encourage calls for a national government.  But he also mentions the moments when Team Brown might expect to claw back some ground on the Tories: "The 2009 political calendar offers a few openings for ministers to take charge of the agenda, such as the G20 London summit and, more significantly, the budget, out of which a popular political leader might hope to conjure fresh support." Here on Coffee House, we've already raised a sceptical eyebrow or two at the idea the G20 will give Brown a boost.  But what of this year's Budget?

To cap or not to cap?

From our UK edition

One of the more perplexing puzzles of the credit crunch is the issue of bankers' bonuses.  On the one hand, those failing banks that are being propped up by the taxpayer need to hang on to their best staff so they don't collapse completely.  Awarding bonuses helps them to do that.  But, on the other, the idea of rewarding failure - as today's Times splash suggests RBS is about to do - is an affront to both free market and taxpayer alike. These contrary pulls make me favour the middle ground of a cap on bankers' bonuses, like that announced by Obama yesterday.  But that just throws up questions about what level the cap should be set at to satisfy the public, the politicians and those bailed-out Masters of the the Universe.  Is there a definitive answer?

Will Miliband lose out in the torture row?

From our UK edition

As John points out, there are numerous questions over the alleged American threat to withdraw intelligence cooperation should the UK release evidence about the treatment of Binyan Mohamed at Guantanamo Bay.  But whatever the doubts, and however forceful the denials, the situtation is still potentially damaging for the US and UK governments - especially in the wake of Hillary Clinton's praise for the "special relationship" a couple of days ago.  Much like last year's rendition row, this latest controversy paints the relationship as a bullying one in which the US holds all the power, and reopens some of the old wounds over trust. I can't help but wonder whether David Miliband will feel the brunt of all this.

Did Blair want Charles Clarke to succeed him as Labour leader?

From our UK edition

Ben Brogan picks up on an interview with Charles Clarke in tomorrow's New Statesman in which the former Home Secretary claims Tony Blair wanted him to be Labour leader.  Here' s the key passage from the interview: "[Blair] had a great plan, apparently, that he wanted me to be foreign secretary because he thought that if I had been foreign secretary and home secretary I would be a credible opponent to Gordon, as the leader of the party. And this had been his long-standing strategy, and that was what he had been intending to do, and that's what he hoped to do." All immaterial now, I guess.  But an intriguing footnote to the Blair-Brown struggle nonetheless.

Your take on the wildcat strikes

From our UK edition

The Coffee House poll on the wildcat strikes closed at 10pm yesterday.  Here are the final results: Question 1: Do you agree with the workers who have walked out in protest at the subcontracting of work to foreign companies and their workers? Yes: 53.4 percent No: 35.6 percent I don't know enough about the details of the Total case: 11.1 percent Question 2: Do you support the free movement of workers within the European Union? Yes: 53.8 percent No: 39.

The Tories have a marginal lead

From our UK edition

Here's a new poll of marginal constituencies by YouGov / Channel 4.  On the whole, I guess the Tories will be pleased with it.  They're 7 points ahead of Labour (up 2 from a poll in October), and Cameron has a hefty lead on the question of who's the best leader for the future.  But there are some below-headline findings that may give them some small concern.  Brown is still regarded as a better "crisis leader", for instance (although, it should be said, Cameron is catching up with him).  And a clear majority think Cameron is "talking down the economy" for political advantage.  Still, overall, it makes much cheerier reading for CCHQ than for Number 10.

PMQs live blog | 4 February 2009

From our UK edition

Stay tuned from 1200 for live coverage of PMQs. 1204: And we're off.  First question from Karen Buck, on rising fuel bills.  Asks Brown what further steps he will take to protect pensioners during the winter.  An opportunity for Brown to mention the Winter Fuel Allowance 1206: Here's Cameron.  Leads by aksing whether a "retreat into protectionism" is the last thing the world needs.  Brown responds that he's made it clear that such a retreat is "the biggest danger" to the world economy.  Slightly odd question from Cameron - allows Brown to mention "global action" and the G20.  1208: Cameron highlights the need to get India and China to make concessions in the Doha trade talks at the G20 summit. 1209: Ah, here's the nub of it.

Has Brown set a BJ4BW timebomb for the Tories?

From our UK edition

Even now a reconciliatory deal looks hopeful, the Lindsey oil refinery remains a political minefield.  Putting aside the question of how the proposed solution of giving around half of the 200 disputed jobs to British workers sits with EU law, the goverment will be worried that all this sets a dangerous precedent.   There's a sense that now the genie has been let out of the bottle - and given a potent rallying cry thanks to Gordon Brown's deeply foolish and deeply misleading 'British jobs for British workers' claim - we will see more and more strikes like that in Lincolnshire. It's a worry that'll be exercising Tory minds too.  Beyond the politically impossible - e.g.

A reminder | 3 February 2009

From our UK edition

Our 'Do you support the strikers?' poll closes at 10pm this evening.  If you want to register your vote before then, do so by clicking here.  At the moment, the voting stands as follows... Question 1: Do you agree with the workers who have walked out in protest at the subcontracting of work to foreign companies and their workers? Yes: 52.8 percent No: 35.8 percent I don't know enough about the details of the Total case: 11.6 percent Question 2: Do you support the free movement of workers within the European Union? Yes: 54.0 percent No: 39.