From our UK edition
Hm. Besides the odd gem, it's an uninspiring selection of films competing for the main awards at Sunday's Oscars ceremony. Even so, just for the record, here's my should-win / will-win list for the major categories. Do jot down your own predictions and hopes in the comments section.
From our UK edition
Looking back on Brown's Wednesday press conference, his admission that the UK regulatory system was "probably too pro-cyclical" seems particularly significant. To my ears, it's the closest he's got to saying they his tripartite system just didn't work, and the closest he's come to admitting a specific error. Yet the opposition parties haven't made much of it since, which got me a-wondering why. My guess is that Brown's language has dissuaded them from launching an attack. One of the PM's great skills is to hide bad news behind financial jargon and lingo that don't make sense to the average person. In this case, if the Tories were to major on Brown's "pro- cyclical" admission, then they'd probably be met with a general shrug.
From our UK edition
Good work by the Times, who are tracking the Government's continuing problems on the PFI front. If you remember, numerous PFI projects are in danger of collapsing as the banks withdraw funding, and word was that Brown 'n' Darling would have to stump up £4 billion of taxpayers' cash to fill the breach. I'd assumed that would mean the Government hawking more gilts and adding to our national debt, which has all sorts of implications for the off balance-sheet nature of these schemes. Turns out the Treasury may have something different in mind: "Billions of pounds could be taken from council staff pension schemes to bail out the Government’s PFI school projects, The Times has learnt.
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The front cover of today's Mail should be stuck on the wall of every MPs' office in Westminster. It spells out the scale of the national debt burden in the starkest possible terms: £2,000,000,000,000 in big red numerals, with a post-script translating that to £33,000 for every "man, woman and child" in the UK. Thing is, the Mail's figures - based on the ONS's release yesterday - are probably a bare minimum. We don't yet know full extent of the nationalised banks' liabilities; there's likely to be more debt-heavy government action over the next year or so; and Brown's off-balance sheet ruses will add to the burden faced by taxpayers, whether they're brought into the open or not.
From our UK edition
Like Steve Richards in today's Independent, I think it's highly unlikely that Brown won't remain Labour leader until the next election. But Richards does spell out an alternative scenario which is news to me: "It is still possible that Brown might go of his own accord before an election, without a new job offer. When things were going badly last time around, he told an ally that he felt guilty about what was happening to Labour under his watch. If he felt a Tory victory could be prevented by his departure he would consider going. I suspect that Brown would do anything to stop Cameron and Osborne securing power, including stepping down for a vote-winning alternative." If true, it really does contextualise Brown's hatred of the Tory top two.
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Some eye-caching comments from David Davis, speaking at the launch of the Convention on Modern Liberty earlier. Here's how the Guardian reports them: "I talked to Chris Grayling the day he was appointed to make sure that he was signed up to the what I call Davis agenda, and he is – maybe not quite as passionate as I am but it would be insane to be as passionate as I am on this issue," he said... ...However, Davis said it was the justice secretary, rather than the home secretary who had the "most important role" on the issue of liberties, adding that shadow justice secretary, Dominic Grieve, was "brilliant". This kind of thing does make you wonder what keeping Davis on the backbenches will mean for a Cameron government.
From our UK edition
So far as the Tories are concerned, today's brought news of both the extremely encouraging and extremely ominous variety. The good news is all for the short-to-medium term. For instance, there's been the constant drip, drip, drip of Labour leadership speculation, which undermines Brown's position within his own party. And then, this afternoon, there's been a damning indictment of Brown's economic approach from the CBI's Richard Lambert. Here's what he said: "The government appears to have been fighting a series of forest fires rather than building a platform for economic recovery. There’s little sense of a coherent strategy about what’s happened to date ...
From our UK edition
Alan Johnson's sure putting himself about. After interviews last week with the Sunday Times and with Fraser in our own magazine, he's now got a comment piece in today's Guardian. Aside from the exaggerations it contains about Labour's record on public service reform, it makes a rather odd argument. Johnson's first point is that Tory health policy is beholden to provider interest and too light on reform - which is, to some extent, true. But - perhaps mindful that the same things could be said of Labour's approach on education - he then goes on to attack the Tories' transformative schools model for basically being too heavy on reform.
From our UK edition
The rest of Labour seems sure that Harriet Harman is on manoeuvres, but Gordon Brown was adamant yesterday that there's no truth to the Westminster gossip. He's lying, I thought; it's not as though he'd admit his deputy is undermining his position. But then this in today's Telegraph: According to one key adviser, [Brown] does not believe reports that [Harman] is jockeying for position – not because he believes she is devoted to his cause, but because “he just thinks it’s preposterous anyone could even consider Harriet could lead anything”. Whether it's true or not, the Harman story now has an irresistible momentum. Quotes like that above, while designed to draw a line under things, just add to the general pantomine.
From our UK edition
Stay tuned for live coverage of Brown's press conference from 1200 onwards. You can watch proceedings here. 1209: Brown's taking his time. Still no sign... 1213: Here's Brown now, striding to the lecturn. Expect much ado about bonuses. 1213: He's just come from meeting the heads of the IMF and World Bank. Leads off saying that the government's priority is "looking after hard working families". 1214: Roll call of world leaders he's meeting: "I thinking we're fashioning a global solution". 1215: This may not be PMQs, but it sounds quite similar so far. Plenty of talk about the government's "real action". No bashing of the "do nothing" Tories, though...
From our UK edition
The Standard's Paul Waugh has the details, and notes that this could "mark the first step towards a full investigation".
From our UK edition
On the day the FT reveals that Mandelson is to "redraw [Labour's] recession rhetoric", the Times have this breaking story: Lord Mandelson, the Business Secretary, has attacked the chairman and chief executive of Starbucks, the American coffee giant, in a foul-mouthed tirade for talking down the British economy. Howard Schultz, who built the coffee chain which is now struggling in America, said in a television interview last night: “The concern for us is Western Europe and specifically the UK. The UK is in a spiral.” Lord Mandelson later said, within earshot of journalists: “Why should I have that guy running down the country? Who the **** is he?
From our UK edition
Ok, so I'm not directly quoting Brown in the headline above, but it does capture the general tone of the PM's article on bonuses in the Times today. Basically, bankers are portrayed as evil, and all government action as wise and benevolent. Here's a chunk of it: "Everywhere I go in Britain, I sense and share the anger and dismay of millions of hard-working people who have watched in disbelief during a year in which irresponsible practices in global banks have brought the world's financial system close to collapse. Because this has had an impact on every high street and in every home in Britain, anger alone is not enough - only bold action to protect those endangered through no fault of their own will do.
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CoffeeHousers sometimes chide us for getting a bit over-excited when we describe articles as "a must read", "essential" or "important". But the opinion piece by Philip Collins, Tony Blair's former speechwriter, in today's Times, really is all of those things. Collins' central point - that the Brown administration has elevated "political positioning over action" - is not a new one, but he expands from there to summarise the entire span of the New Labour years, and throws in plenty of healthy references to Sigmund Freud too. Here's a key passage: "When Mr Brown commends [Anthony] Crosland's idea of equality, he does so on the grounds that it provides the Labour Party with its main dividing line from the Conservatives. He doesn't like equality because it's a good idea.
From our UK edition
As today's the first anniversary of the Northern Rock nationalisation, I thought I'd re-read Matthew Parris's stunning defence of free markets in this week's magazine. I recommend CoffeeHousers read the whole thing, if they haven't already, but here's a key passage: "So amid all the doom-mongering and recanting, I have an assertion to make. The market has not failed. The present collapse is evidence that the market is working. Confidence bubbles are an inherent feature of a free market system. Panics — confidence vacuums — are an inherent feature too. The test of the theory of market capitalism is whether the system provides from within itself the means to prick both. It does. The first — a confidence bubble — has been pricked.
From our UK edition
So, Alistair Darling's announced that the Government is setting a limit on the bonuses that RBS pays out to its staff. Here's a section from the Beeb report: Mr Darling said bonuses at RBS would be cut from the £2.5bn paid last year to £340m. There will be "no reward for people who have failed," he added. And bonuses will no longer be paid in cash, but in shares. The bank will pay "the minimum it can with regard to its legal obligations," the chancellor said, referring to the fact that some employees are contractually obliged to receive bonuses. The idea of a bonus limit is sound enough to my mind, and Darling seems to have made the right broad brushstrokes in this case. Politically, though, I can't see this doing Labour much good.
From our UK edition
I think it's safe to say that Shoichi Nakagawa's resignation today is the first time a government minister's resigned for what are - officially - cough-syrup related reasons.
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Here at the headline numbers from the latest Ipsos-MORI poll: Conservatives --- 48 percent (up 4 percentage points) Labour --- 28 percent (down 2) Lib Dems --- 17 percent (no change) Aside from the hefty Tory lead, the unchanged Lib Dem position is worth noting - especially in view of the astonishing gains they've been making in other recent polls. I haven't seen any below-headline findings yet, but will report back if there's anything interesting. P.S. The last time the Tories had a 20-point lead (or above) was back in September.
From our UK edition
Saying the things that practically no other Labour MP will say, Frank Field writes an incisive article in today's Independent. Number 10 will not be amused by his claim that there's a "very serious possibility of a sterling crisis'", but I figure it's this passage that should worry them most: "...tax increases are unavoidable even in the short run, and the Government should seize that necessity to help make our tax system more progressive. In times of economic decline it is more, not less important, to protect the poorest by developing initiatives that shift any increase in the tax burden onto those with the widest shoulders... ...increasing taxes on some, and cash limiting public expenditure, will mark a step change to a political culture built on debt.
From our UK edition
...for now. The RPI measure of inflation (which includes mortgage repayment costs) dropped from 0.9 percent in December to 0.1 percent in January. The targeted measure, CPI, remains well above zero - dropping from 3.1 percent to 3.0 percent - although some forecasters think it will go negative this year. Expect further rate cuts from the Bank to stave off a period of prolonged deflation.