Peter Hoskin

At each other’s throats

From our UK edition

Watch out.  The fur's flying in Cabinet, and there may well be blood.  The latest claim, revealed by Ben Brogan in the Mail, is that Harriet Harman's being blamed by her colleagues for floating that 'lifeboat for Brown' story yesterday: "Last night, Harriet Harman was at the centre of a blame game over claims that Mr Brown is Germany's favourite for a new job as a global financial watchdog. Downing Street poured scorn on reports that the Prime Minister is being lined up for an international role that would force him to quit No 10. Labour sources claimed instead that Mr Brown was the victim of a botched spin operation by the party's deputy leader amid signs that his authority is weakening.

The Tories should release the second Freud Review

From our UK edition

Now the Tories have nabbed David Freud from the Government, they have the perfect opportunity to recast the welfare debate for the recession years.  As Alex Barker pointed out in an excellent blog post for the FT yesterday, they certainly need to.  After all, recent findings suggest that the Freud-prescribed workfare measures aren't working quite as well as many hoped they would as the downturn takes hold.  Now, that's not to say the welfare reform agenda should be jettisoned.  There's overwhelming evidence that it works better than centralised alternatives, and with unemployment levels shooting ever upwards - and with some 5.2 million Brits on out-of-work benefits - there's a clear need for drastic action.

One for the ‘headless chicken’ folder

From our UK edition

I imagine CCHQ will have a 'headless chicken' folder, containing examples of where Brown's numerous schemes to bolster the economy aren't having the desired effect.  If so, it should certainly include a copy of the FT's study into the Government's loan guarantee scheme for small businesses.  Here's how the FT introduces it: "Only about £12m has been lent to companies under the government’s £1bn loan guarantee scheme for small business, a month after it was launched, according to analysis by the Financial Times. Leading business organisations on Sunday attacked the 'trickle' of funding from the banks, warning that government attempts to kick-start corporate lending simply were not working.

Things are getting worse for taxpayers too

From our UK edition

I wrote earlier that the papers are stuffed with bad news for Gordon Brown.  The same's true for taxpayers, especially in light of the CBI's latest set of economic forecasts.  They have GDP shrinking by 3.3 percent this year, and unemployment rising above 3 million in 2010.  Which adds up to a lower tax revenue for the Exchequer and, in turn, more and more borrowing.  Indeed, the CBI estimate that the government will need to rack up £100 billion more debt over the next couple of years than the PBR accounts for.  It's a fiscal mess that - as yesterday's excellent ConservativeHome report made clear - future governments and taxpayers will be left picking up the tab for. P.S.

The vultures circle ever closer

From our UK edition

Is the bad news stacked against Gordon Brown reaching some kind of critical mass?  The newspapers today are absolutely stuffed with stories about banks, bankers and bonuses that are either embarrassing or downright ruinous for the PM.  And, to top it all off, Trevor Kavanagh begins his Sun column asking why Brown hasn't resigned after the events of last week.  Sure, it's highly unlikely that we'll see that particular resignation before the next election; but there's still a growing sense that it's not so much chickens as vultures that are coming home to roost on the roof of 10 Downing Street. Unfortunately for the PM, his party's now losing most - if not all - of the day-to-day battles with the Tories.

An air of resignation about Downing Street

From our UK edition

When you step back and think about it, it's really quite astonishing how fast and how emphatically Brown has fallen since his minor 'bounce' in the autumn.  Sure, he was always going to struggle as the recession bit deeper and deeper.  But to so swiftly get to this point - where all news is bad news; where there is little salve or comfort; and where hope is dying from suffocation - really takes some doing.  Little wonder, then, that Labour now seems saturated by despair and self-loathing; something that's captured wonderfully by two comment pieces in today's papers. The first is Andrew Rawnsley's article in the Observer, an essential portrait of life in the Downing Street bunker.

YouGov deflates the Lib Dem rise

From our UK edition

Given the wave-making nature of the ComRes poll earlier, it's worth pointing out the YouGov poll for tomorrow's Sunday Times.  Rather than a eye-catching increase in Lib Dem support, it records a 2 point fall for Clegg, Cable et al.  Here are the headline numbers: Conservatives --- 44 percent (up 1 percentage point) Labour --- 32 percent (no change) Lib Dem --- 14 percent (down 2) Over at Political Betting, Mike Smithson indicates that the difference may be down to polling methods, online vs telephone.  I guess we'll have to wait for more polls to know either way.

Labour down in the dumps, as Lib Dems climb

From our UK edition

John Rentoul promised us a wave-making ComRes / IoS poll, and he wasn't lying.  The figures he revealed earlier show a 6 point climb in Lib Dem support, putting them within three points of Labour, who record their worst showing since last September.  The Tories have fallen back slightly, too, but their lead over Labour is a hefty 16 points, the biggest since October last year.  Here are the headline figures in full: Conservatives --- 41 percent (down 2 percentage points) Labour --- 25 percent (down 3) Lib Dems --- 22 percent (up 6) Before writing off the surge in Lib Dem support as outlier, remember that last week's ICM poll also showed a 6 point rise for Clegg & Co.  Will be worth keeping an eye on the next batch of polls to see if it sticks.

Mandelson’s June election advice for Brown

From our UK edition

Those early election rumours just won't go away.  Here's Peter Oborne writing in the Mail today about the decision to publish this year's Budget on 22 April: "But there is another, more intriguing reason for the delay. Gordon Brown, acting on the advice of Peter Mandelson, wants to keep open the option of a General Election this year. The Prime Minister hopes that U.S. President Obama's visit to Britain at the start of April for the G20 economic summit will boost his own credibility. He wants the budget to be held in the wake of the visit and to unveil a massive boost to public spending, like the one Obama has ordered in the U.S.

The ‘apology DVD’ story keeps on rolling

From our UK edition

Just to flag up Martin's latest blog post, in which he details Downing Street's reponse to his 'apology DVD' scoop.  Well worth reading, particularly as it features a (typically) less-than-charming text message from Damian McBride...

Filling the PFI gap

From our UK edition

Remember those PFI projects which were doomed to collapse because the banks are no longer willing to stump up the cash for them?  Well, an article in today's Times suggests that Alistair Darling is going to raid the public purse to ensure they're completed: "A multibillion-pound rescue of building programmes involving schools, hospitals and motorways that are threatened by a lack of private finance is to be announced by the Treasury within days, the Times has learnt. The Chancellor is expected to guarantee bridging finance to enable public sector schemes being built under the Private Finance Initiative (PFI) to go ahead if they are already in the pipeline.

Banning Wilders is bad for social cohesion

From our UK edition

What to make of the state's refusal to allow Geert Wilders into the UK yesterday?  The issues involved are so fundamental that my take on them is almost instinctive: of course he should have been allowed into the country, and the excuse that a private screening of his film Fitna in the Lords is a criminal threat to "public security" is craven in the extreme.  Philip Johnston strikes a similar note in his excellent Telegraph article today.  Here's a key snippet: "Wilders claims that these verses from the holy book of Islam are being used today to incite modern Muslims to behave violently and anti-democratically.

The Spectator’s take on Darwin, 1882

From our UK edition

Given that today's the 200th anniversary of Charles Darwin's birth, I've just delved into the Spectator's archives to see what we said about the great man on the occasion of his death in April 1882.  I've typed out the whole obituary below for the benefit of CoffeeHousers and for the sake of posterity: By the death of Charles Darwin, which occurred on Wednesday, England has lost the most original, as well asfar the most celebrated, of modern men of science - the one man whom European Science would, with one voice, probably agree to consider as the most eminent scientific thinker and writer of the present century.

Johnson’s admission puts Darling on the spot

From our UK edition

As an addendum to Fraser's interview with Alan Johnson in the latest issue of the mag, it's worth flagging up this exchange between George Osborne and Alistair Darling in the Commons earlier.  Osborne picks up on Johnson's claim that we've got to be prepared for two more years of recession: Mr. Osborne: Either the Chancellor knew what was going on and did nothing, or he was entirely ignorant, and neither is much of a defence. Is not the net closing in on the Prime Minister and the Chancellor? Their accomplices are resigning, their alibi that no one knew what was going on has been blown apart, and their fingerprints are all over the mistakes that were made during the age of irresponsibility.

Was the ONS right to release ‘jobs for immigrants’ statistics?

From our UK edition

There's an intrgiuing sub-plot brewing over yesterday's ONS statistical release, covered in grand detail by the Times today.  Apparently, ministers are "fizzing with anger" about the publication of numbers showing how many UK jobs go to immigrants, and feel that the ONS chief, Karen Dunnell, is trying to inflame political tensions in the aftermath of the BJ4BW row.  Given how the Government treats statistics - and given that the ONS is meant to be an independent body - I can't see that Dunnell has a case to answer here.  But Keith Vaz tries to concoct one anyway, writing against the ONS release.  He shoots himself in the foot with his opening: "I'm not against the publication of statistics but they have to be accurate, relevant and very clear.

Write Gordon’s apology

From our UK edition

So, Our Dear Leader's studying tapes of Barack Obama to find out just how to say sorry.  We still may never hear an actual apology, but at least he's doing his homework.  Here at Coffee House, we figured we should help him out.  So this, CoffeeHousers, is your mission... Write out a script for Brown's Great Apology, of no more than 300 words, and post it in the comments section below.  The idea came from Alex's classic blog post earlier today, and I'd recommend you read his effort for inspiration.  Here's a snippet: "Mistakes do happen, you know. Nobody's perfect. Not even Tony.

PMQs live blog | 11 February 2009

From our UK edition

Stay tuned for live coverage of PMQs from 1200 onwards. 1203: A breaking news item worth mentioning: Gordon Brown's buddy, James Crosby, has resigned his role at the FSA. 1204: Here's Brown now.  He faces a question on Crosby, and responds: "It's right that James Crosby resigned his role." 1205: Cameron now.  "They can even plant questions at short notice".  He leads on Crosby too.  "Does the PM accept that it was a serious error of judegment on his part to appoint [Crosby] in the first place."  On the offensive from the off.  Brown responds by citing a KPMG report. 1208: I bet Brown's wishing Crosby had resigned half-an-hour later.  Cameron brings up the issue of the banker's knighthood.

White collar jobs for white collar workers

From our UK edition

A fascinating double page spread in today's Times, setting out the Government's plans to get help unemployed white-collar workers get back into work.  Apparently, ministers are worried that job centres just won't be able to deal with the swathe of former bankers, solicitors and accountants that will be passing through their doors, and the idea is to introduce new, 12-week courses so that these people can "refresh their skills".  It's a striking sign of where we're at.  Catering for the C2s may no longer mean promising lower taxes or, say, improved education for their children, as it did in 1997.  It may simply mean safeguarding their jobs, or maintaining their employability. But will it work?  I, for one, have my doubts.

Will Brown get hit by the banking shrapnel?

From our UK edition

So far as Brown is concerned, the biggest problem with this grilling of the bankers is that it will rebound, dangerously, on to him.  Despite the Government's best efforts to pass the buck (see Alistair Darling's article in the Indy today), there's plenty of room for them to be embarrassed by the associations, friendships and working partnerships that the Treasury Select Committee is shining a light on.  The ever-alert Paul Waugh points out one of them over on his blog: Yet today's news from the Treasury Select Committee is the most damaging threat of all of to Mr Brown and Mr Darling's judgement in relying on Sir James [Crosby, former chief exec of HBOS and a "favourite adviser" to Gordon Brown].

Bonfire of the vanities

From our UK edition

The Treasury Select Committee's evidence session with the bankers (which you can watch live here) makes for great soap opera.  We've had contrition, grim confessions, audacious defences, and denial after denial after denial.  John McFall kicked off the whole thing saying that he wants to discover "what went wrong".  For me, it brought to mind Paul Myner's claim, last October, that no-one - not even the Government - can escape blame for the situation.  Just imagine if everyone - Gordon Brown, Alan Greenspan, the professional speculators and, yes, the bankers - were being forced in front of the cameras.  Now that would be a bonfire to behold.