Penworthy

The jumps season is well under way and I am delighted to be tipping chasers and hurdlers again for the first time in six months. I particularly enjoy backing course specialists over the Grand National fences at Aintree and so the Boylesport Grand Sefton Handicap Chase is just up my street. In last year’s contest only 14 horses lined up for the race which was won by Al Dancer. Sam Thomas’s gelding is, according to his handler, unlikely to defend his crown but the two horses closest to him that day, Gesskille and Percussion, are likely to take part in the race. Geskille is favourite in most books for this two miles and five furlongs contest and he will have every chance if running to his best form last season.

I have a policy of not betting or tipping on jump racing until at least the first week of November. That’s because the early season form over chases and hurdles is so difficult to predict in that it is hard to know which horses are fit from their summer break and which are not. Having said that, there is no doubt that the jumps cards at Cheltenham and Kelso tomorrow excite me far more than anything offered up on the level by Doncaster or Newbury. Yet, I will nevertheless stick to my self-imposed punting rules. If this race was run every Saturday for a year, there would be a different result each time At the time of writing first thing on Friday morning, the Saturday cards at both Doncaster and Newbury were under threat from the weather.

Not for the first time on Champions Day at Ascot, the ground tomorrow looks likely to be very soft and it is essential to back horses that can handle the conditions. All the better, too, if they have strong course form as the sand-based track is not liked by all horses – even those that can handle ease in the ground. In the Balmoral Handicap (4.25 p.m.) the likes of Docklands, Sonny Liston, Migration and Baradar are at the head of the market and, of the four, the last named makes most appeal. He has winning course form and he will relish the recent rain. Yes, he has been raised by the handicapper for his two recent wins but that doesn’t necessarily mean his winning streak will end.

Tomorrow’s Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap (Newmarket, 2.40 p.m.) is worth more than £100,000 to the winner and it is always a highly competitive affair. As usual, the substantial prize money has attracted several runners from the other side of the Irish Sea and it is not hard to see why one of them, Pied Piper, is the favourite. Gordon Elliott’s five-year-old gelding is a high-class hurdler and is extremely well weighted on the flat compared with his jumps’ rating. Furthermore, the canny Irish handler has acquired the services of Ryan Moore in the saddle, even though the jockey would normally be riding one of the fancied horses trained by Willie Mullins.

Research tells us that a horse typically peaks in terms of speed and performance at the aged of four or five and deteriorates after that. But there are plenty of exceptions to the rule. Indeed, for some thoroughbreds, age really is just a number. Personally, because the horse spent time stabled near me when I was a youngster, I will never forget the achievements of a loveable old chaser called Mac Vidi. Incredibly, Mac Vidi – trained by his owner-breeder Pam Neal – was placed in the 1980 Cheltenham Gold Cup at the age of 15, doing something no horse aged older than 13 has done before or since.

The last three winners of the Bet365 Cambridgeshire have triumphed at odds of 40-1, 40-1 again and 25-1. Earlier this century there were even bigger priced winners: 100-1 in 2004 and 50-1 in 2017. So don’t be surprised if the race throws up another shock result tomorrow (Newmarket 3.40 p.m.). I have already put up one horse – Oviedo – for the race and Ed Bethell’s three-year-old colt looks almost certain to have his perfect ground conditions of ‘good to firm’. However, just as things were looking promising, the big downside is that he has now seemingly been given the worst draw of all in stall one (high numbers are usually favoured on the straight course).

The Arc weekend at Longchamp – well worth a visit if you have never been racing in France – is just over a week away and now seems a good time to place a couple of bets at this most prestigious of meetings. Set on the outskirts of Paris in the Bois de Boulogne, Longchamp hosts two big races that British trainers love to target: the Grade 1 Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, Europe’s richest race over a mile and a half, and the Grade 1 Prix de l’Abbaye, for the continent’s best sprinters over five furlongs. Both races will take place on Sunday October 1.

The Saturday of Doncaster’s St Leger meeting offers something for everyone: the fifth and final ‘classic’ of the season and a ridiculously competitive sprint handicap for starters, with much more besides. I will start by looking at the Group 1 Betfred St Leger (tomorrow 3.35 p.m.), which is the longest flat racing classic over a distance of more than one mile six furlongs. Given that most racehorses are bred for speed these days, this means that, at only three years old, many talented thoroughbreds do not have the stamina to last the trip. With the ground likely to be on the soft side of good tomorrow, backing a strong stayer is a must in this race, which has a first prize of more than £420,000.

My beloved late father, who was responsible for my love of horse racing, made an annual attempt to land the so-called ‘autumn double’: the two big Newmarket’s handicaps run towards the tail-end of the Flat season. For the best part of half a century, I have followed his lead with a fair degree of success in both contests but never landing the double at the same time. The duo of races involved are the Cambridgeshire, a ‘cavalry charge’ run over a mile and one furlong on Newmarket’s straight course, and the Cesarewitch, run over twice that distance at the same track. Because of their large fields, both races are usually run at a fast pace and so it is essential to have horses that are true stayers over the very different distances of both races.

The last of this season’s big six-furlong sprint handicaps takes place in Scotland three weeks tomorrow. The Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup is always a competitive affair with up to 25 runners spread across the course, often splitting into two distinct groups on the near side and the far side of the stands. Last year, the race was won by the hugely-admirable Summerghand at the age of eight. This wonderful old warrior has been at the peak of his powers again this season winning his most recent race at York and being runner-up before that in the William Hill Great St Wilfred Handicap at Ripon. He will surely return to Ayr on 23 September to try to defend his crown and he could well do it off a lofty rating of 107, including a penalty for his York win.

The most likely winner of tomorrow’s Sky Bet Ebor Handicap (3.35 p.m.), the most valuable flat race handicap in Europe, is Sweet William. John and Thady Gosden’s four-year-old gelding is going for a four-timer and he will land a £300,000 first prize if he achieves it. Those canny enough to have bagged fancy prices on the favourite can feel pleased with themselves, but odds of no bigger than 7-2 are not for me in a 22-runner handicap in which lots can go wrong for any horse. Furthermore, while Sweet William is certainly not ground dependent, his best run came last time out at Glorious Goodwood on heavy ground, so the likely fast ground may not be ideal. As usual, I would prefer to look away from the favourite for value, especially with the sponsors offering eight places.

York’s Ebor meeting next week is one of the highlights of the racing calendar with four days of quality fare on offer from Wednesday onwards. York is a flat, left-handed track suitable for strong galloping horses yet for some inexplicable reason quite a lot of thoroughbreds fail to act on what should be a fair course for one and all. For that reason, it makes sense to back horses with strong form on the track. Regular readers of this blog will know that I am a big admirer of local trainer Ed Bethell, whose yard is in the Yorkshire Dales. Most of Bethell’s best horses have run at York at some point and there is no doubt that several of these will have been specifically targeted at this big meeting.

Amid the fun and games that always accompanies the Shergar Cup meeting at Ascot, there is at least one horse that goes to the Berkshire track on a deadly serious mission. Connections of PRYDWEN are hoping he can win the Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Stayers handicap (tomorrow, 2.10 p.m.) for two reasons. Four teams of three jockeys compete for a trophy with points awarded for all of the six races based on the finishing position of the horses First, the two-mile contest is worth nearly £40,000, a nice enough pot in itself, but, more importantly, victory would mean the horse incurred a 4lbs penalty for the Sky Bet Ebor Handicap on 26 August.

The all-important ground conditions at Glorious Goodwood have varied from 'good to soft' to 'heavy’ this week and that trend could continue over the next two days with a mixed forecast. Throw in the complications of the draw and the unique undulating track and there are plenty of challenges out there for punters. Starting with today, there are two competitive handicaps that always grab my attention: the Coral Goodwood Handicap (1.50 p.m.) over a marathon trip of more than two and a half miles and the Coral Golden Mile (3 p.m.). Over the last decade, horses drawn in single figures have won nine of the last ten runnings of the Golden Mile and horses drawn one to five have the best record of all.

The Grade 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes, first run at Ascot in 1951, has lost some of its lustre in recent years. Many of best middle-distance horses have swerved the race and it has often been left with small fields of only modest quality. Yet tomorrow’s race (Ascot, 3.40 p.m.) is undoubtedly a contest to savour. It has been dubbed a 'race for the ages' with some of the best three-year-old colts, the so-called 'Classic generation', taking on their elders for the first time. The Betfred Derby winner Auguste Rodin and the runner-up King of Steel are at the head of the market and a lot of experts feel that, with the weight for age concession, three-year-olds are the horses to back at this time of year.

The delights of Glorious Goodwood are on the horizon and now is a good time to have a bet on a consistent, well-handicapped horse with rock solid course and distance form and who is not ground dependent. Furthermore, he is on offer at a super-generous 33-1 with most bookmakers. REVICH is a credit to the training skills of his Newmarket handler Richard Spencer. The seven-year-old gelding, owned by the Middleham Park syndicate, recently took his career earnings to more than £150,000 when he came fourth last time out at Sandown despite being denied a clear run. However, it is Revich’s run in the Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood last season that makes me want to back him for the same race this year – two weeks today on Friday, 4 August.

The two big handicaps tomorrow are the bet365 Bunbury Cup at Newmarket and the John Smith’s Cup at York. Both are early closing races in which the weights were framed by the official handicapper several weeks ago. This means several horses in both races are 'well in', in that if the handicapper was in a position to evaluate their most recent runs – after he set the weights – they would be carrying several pounds more tomorrow. However, the most difficult issue to factor into which horses to tip today is undoubtedly the weather: both Newmarket and York are forecast to have large amounts of rain which could make the ground at both tracks 'soft' by tomorrow afternoon.

Trainer Jamie Osborne has targeted OUZO at most of the big one-mile handicaps since taking over the training of the horse at the beginning of last season from Richard Hannon. To date, the gelding is zero wins from 11 runs for Osborne but that statistic does not tell the full story. Ouzo has run some splendid races in defeat, most of them with the trainer’s daughter Saffie in the saddle, and his consistency means he has failed to drop far down the handicap. The gelding, now seven, certainly deserves a change of luck and I am hoping that he gets one as soon as tomorrow (Sandown, 2.25 p.m.) when he contests the Coral Challenge handicap, once again over a mile and once again the talented Saffie Osborne gets the ride.

When I put up Zoffee at 20-1 for the Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate six weeks ago, I said that I was hoping he would swerve the big staying handicaps at Royal Ascot. I had suspected trainer Hugo Palmer wanted to keep his horse fresh for tomorrow’s target which has a first prize of more than £80,000. Sadly, the temptation to dress up in top hat and tails was too hard to resist for his owners and the seven-year-old gelding lined up in the Ascot Stakes, running well despite a poor passage and an average ride to be sixth behind Ahorsewithnoname. That race over a marathon trip was only ten days ago but Zoffee will nevertheless take his chances tomorrow (Newcastle 2.05 p.m.) at far less than half the odds compared to when I tipped him.

If there is a so-called ‘group horse masquerading as a handicapper’ in the 28-strong Wokingham field (tomorrow, 5pm), then it is almost certainly the favourite, Orazio. Charlie Hills’ four-year-old grey colt has won his last two handicaps comfortably and this race has been the plan for some time.  However, my strong each way fancy for the race is an experienced handicapper in the form of APOLLO ONE. The Newmarket-trained five-year-old gelding ran in this race last year when he was only eighth of the 26 runners but I am confident he can do better this time around off a similar rating. Apollo One comes into the race is much better form that he was last year, after a fine run when second in a competitive sprint handicap at Epsom.