Penworthy

The heavy rain of the past 48 hours is good news for two horses that I fancy for the ultra-competitive Betfair Hurdle tomorrow (Newbury, 3.15 p.m.). The ground is now ‘heavy, soft in places’ and more rain forecast later today. I put up BRENTFORD HOPE at 14-1 for the race four weeks ago and his best form on the Flat means that he is well weighted over hurdles, particularly now that he has his favoured cut in the ground. His trainer, Harry Derham, is in sparkling from with three winners from 11 runners in the past fortnight, for a 27 per cent strike rate. I still like his price of 14-1, now seven places, and so I am, unusually, going to back him again with a further one point each way bet with William Hill at those odds.

The two-day Dublin Racing Festival this weekend will – just as Cheltenham Trials Day did a week ago – provide a host of clues to which horses might win the big races at the Cheltenham Festival in mid-March. I covered tomorrow’s Grade1 Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle (Leopardstown, 1.20 p.m.) in my column two weeks ago. I still fancy Jetara to see off her five rivals, all from the yards of Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott. Sadly, the odds of 10-1 for Jessica Harrington’s talented mare and the three places that were available a fortnight ago have both long gone. There are plenty of other fascinating races and an array of talent on show in Ireland but there are no more bets there for me.

If a glittering eight-race card at Cheltenham tomorrow doesn’t whet the appetite for the Festival in less than two months’ time, then nothing will. Plenty of reputations will go on the line at Festival Trials Day and there will be an abundance of clues to which horses might be winning huge prizes between 12 March and 15 March inclusive. Unsurprisingly, there are plenty of Cheltenham regulars in the Paddy Power Cheltenham Countdown Podcast Handicap Chase (Cheltenham 1.15 p.m.) headed by Il Ridoto. Paul Nicholls’s seven-year-old gelding has run no less than six of his seven most recent races at the course, including winning this race last year. However, that was off an official mark of 138 and he will race tomorrow off a mark of 148.

With tomorrow’s cards at Ascot and Haydock both victims of the cold snap, and Lingfield’s Sunday meeting under threat, it makes sense to look ahead with some ante-post bets, for once on both sides of the Irish Sea. I like to back horses in the Randox Grand National a long way ahead of the race in order to get the best odds It’s not often that I gamble on races in Ireland but I like the look of JETARA at double figure odds in the Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival on 3 February. This race at Leopardstown is highly likely to be dominated by geldings from the Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott yards but it is an improving six-year-old mare trained by Jessica Harrington who could surprise her rivals.

Most racehorse trainers are creatures of habit and they love to target races which they have won in previous years. Alan King consistently hopes to win the Wigley Group Classic Handicap with one of his best staying chasers. He has enjoyed regular success in the race, winning it no less than three times, in 2008, 2011 and 2021. It’s only a matter of time before Derham lands a major prize with one of his talented string This year’s contest (Warwick 3 p.m., tomorrow), run over three miles five furlongs, has long been the target for King’s talented chaser, MAJOR DUNDEE, and the Wiltshire-based handler would like his nine-year old gelding to win the race in good style for two main reasons.

At 8 a.m. this morning, my column was done, the ‘i’s were dotted, the ‘t’s crossed. I had even suggested a headline, ‘Three mudlarks for Sandown tomorrow’.  Within half an hour, I would be pressing the send button on my weekly email to my friends at Spectator Life. Sadly, just 20 minutes later, the whole column was redundant. My three fancies that loved heavy ground would not have the chance to lark around in the mud: tomorrow’s Sandown card, the highlight of which was due to be the final of the Unibet Veterans’ Handicap Chase, was abandoned due to waterlogging.

I am slightly surprised at the way that bookmakers have priced up Monday’s Paddy Power New Year's Day Handicap Chase (Cheltenham 2.05 p.m.). Stage Star is a lovely young horse who has, with the exception of a flop at Aintree in April at the end of a long season, improved with every race over the past year. As a result, he is rightly vying for favouritism with Allaho for the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March. However, the New Year’s Day contest is a handicap and he must give the best part of two stones to most of his rivals, some of them pretty decent in their own right. I can see why he might be edging favouritism in three days’ time but odds of evens or, in some cases, odds on seem far too short.

There are only some seven weeks left for connections to get their horses qualified for the 2024 Randox Grand National. This year it will be harder than ever to get a run in the Aintree marathon, with just 34 runners, instead of the usual 40, for safety reasons. That means a horse will need an official rating of around 147 to be almost certain of getting into the race when the weights are announced in mid-February. Tomorrow there are at least two horses who will be looking to win the Betfred Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (Haydock 1.30 p.m.) and not just for the £26,000 first prize. Borders trainer and jockey team Stuart Coltherd and his son, Sam, are keen to run their eight-year-old gelding COOPER’S CROSS in the Grand National on 13 April.

I have followed the fortunes of GIN COCO closely for the past two seasons and, even though the gelding will turn eight on New Year’s Day, I am convinced his best days still lie ahead of him. He has been lightly raced during his career with three wins from just nine runs and he could yet go novice chasing next year. Gin Coco is clearly a much better horse on good rather than soft ground. The official going of ‘soft’ was initially thought to have been the reason for poor run in the County Hurdle at this year’s Cheltenham Festival. It later transpired, however, that he had fractured his pelvis during the race and so he did well to win his second race back from a break at Ascot last month.

There are a lot of extremely able jump trainers in Britain but only a handful are really adept at successfully preparing a horse for a big target, such as a race at the Cheltenham Festival or one of the season’s most valuable handicaps. These are typically the contests in which the leading Irish trainers also enter their best horses and so they are fiercely competitive. Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson and Dan Skelton clearly all deserve a place on this ‘top target trainer’ list for winning so many top prizes, while the likes of Nigel Twiston-Davies, Venetia Williams and Jonjo O’Neill have also had more than their fair share of big-race success over the years.

The weather is going to play a key role in the outcome of tomorrow’s big race, the Coral Gold Cup (Newbury, 2.50 p.m.). To start with, the cold snap might even claim the card altogether with a course inspection due at 7.30 a.m. on race day. Secondly, after little rain over the past fortnight, the going is likely to be ‘good to soft’ or quicker when the frost covers come off and horses that prefer decent ground will be favoured. The top three horses in the market – Monbeg Genius, Complete Unknown and Mahler Mission – all look well-handicapped, particularly the former on his run in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. However, all three horses would also be happier with more cut in the ground.

There are two high-class chases taking place tomorrow – one at Haydock and the other at Ascot. They will have a bearing on the betting markets for the Ladbrokes King George VI at Kempton on Boxing Day and the Cheltenham Festival. However, neither race this weekend is now an attractive betting proposition because each has attracted just four runners. I suggested a bet a week ago in the Grade 1 Betfair Chase (Haydock 3 p.m.) at a time when most bookmakers were still offering three places. So I am pleased to see that Corach Rambler, put up each way at 14-1, now only has three rivals tomorrow. However, I am fully aware that he is the lowest rated horse in the race and it is perfectly possible that he could still finish fourth (or indeed not finish at all).

Cheltenham’s November meeting is, as usual, a meeting to savour and I am looking forward to my first visit to the Cotswold track this season when I attend tomorrow’s seven-race card. I put up two tips for tomorrow’s big race, the Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.20 p.m.), last week and I was pleased to see that both horses were declared yesterday. There are dangers aplenty but I have nothing to add other than it’s a question of the more rain the better for Fugitif and that would suit Notlongtillmay well enough too. I was sorely tempted to put up an old favourite of mine, Gin Coco, for the Unibet Greatwood Hurdle on Sunday (3.30 p.m.).

Richard Hobson is a trainer that I have a lot of time for. He always gets the best out of his small string and he is always willing to share information with journalists about the well-being of his horses and their big-race targets. He places his horses well too, even if it means going to the other side of the English Channel in search of better prize money. Hobson’s stable star FUGITIF is due to make his seasonal debut a week from tomorrow in the highly-competitive Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham’s November meeting. This eight-year-old gelding ticks a lot of boxes for this contest, notably he has strong form over the course and distance of the race.

The jumps season is well under way and I am delighted to be tipping chasers and hurdlers again for the first time in six months. I particularly enjoy backing course specialists over the Grand National fences at Aintree and so the Boylesport Grand Sefton Handicap Chase is just up my street. In last year’s contest only 14 horses lined up for the race which was won by Al Dancer. Sam Thomas’s gelding is, according to his handler, unlikely to defend his crown but the two horses closest to him that day, Gesskille and Percussion, are likely to take part in the race. Geskille is favourite in most books for this two miles and five furlongs contest and he will have every chance if running to his best form last season.

I have a policy of not betting or tipping on jump racing until at least the first week of November. That’s because the early season form over chases and hurdles is so difficult to predict in that it is hard to know which horses are fit from their summer break and which are not. Having said that, there is no doubt that the jumps cards at Cheltenham and Kelso tomorrow excite me far more than anything offered up on the level by Doncaster or Newbury. Yet, I will nevertheless stick to my self-imposed punting rules. If this race was run every Saturday for a year, there would be a different result each time At the time of writing first thing on Friday morning, the Saturday cards at both Doncaster and Newbury were under threat from the weather.

Not for the first time on Champions Day at Ascot, the ground tomorrow looks likely to be very soft and it is essential to back horses that can handle the conditions. All the better, too, if they have strong course form as the sand-based track is not liked by all horses – even those that can handle ease in the ground. In the Balmoral Handicap (4.25 p.m.) the likes of Docklands, Sonny Liston, Migration and Baradar are at the head of the market and, of the four, the last named makes most appeal. He has winning course form and he will relish the recent rain. Yes, he has been raised by the handicapper for his two recent wins but that doesn’t necessarily mean his winning streak will end.

Tomorrow’s Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap (Newmarket, 2.40 p.m.) is worth more than £100,000 to the winner and it is always a highly competitive affair. As usual, the substantial prize money has attracted several runners from the other side of the Irish Sea and it is not hard to see why one of them, Pied Piper, is the favourite. Gordon Elliott’s five-year-old gelding is a high-class hurdler and is extremely well weighted on the flat compared with his jumps’ rating. Furthermore, the canny Irish handler has acquired the services of Ryan Moore in the saddle, even though the jockey would normally be riding one of the fancied horses trained by Willie Mullins.

Research tells us that a horse typically peaks in terms of speed and performance at the aged of four or five and deteriorates after that. But there are plenty of exceptions to the rule. Indeed, for some thoroughbreds, age really is just a number. Personally, because the horse spent time stabled near me when I was a youngster, I will never forget the achievements of a loveable old chaser called Mac Vidi. Incredibly, Mac Vidi – trained by his owner-breeder Pam Neal – was placed in the 1980 Cheltenham Gold Cup at the age of 15, doing something no horse aged older than 13 has done before or since.

The last three winners of the Bet365 Cambridgeshire have triumphed at odds of 40-1, 40-1 again and 25-1. Earlier this century there were even bigger priced winners: 100-1 in 2004 and 50-1 in 2017. So don’t be surprised if the race throws up another shock result tomorrow (Newmarket 3.40 p.m.). I have already put up one horse – Oviedo – for the race and Ed Bethell’s three-year-old colt looks almost certain to have his perfect ground conditions of ‘good to firm’. However, just as things were looking promising, the big downside is that he has now seemingly been given the worst draw of all in stall one (high numbers are usually favoured on the straight course).