Penworthy

The Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (3.30 p.m.) is the highlight of day two of the Cheltenham Festival and – despite Jonbon’s defection this morning – it provides an intriguing seven-runner contest over two miles. There are various arguments to be made for the top two in the market – El Fabiolo and Edwardstone – each winning this £225,000 pot. However, both potential frailties too: El Fabiolo has not always convinced with his jumping and Edwardstone’s runs have lacked consistency this season. The Cheltenham Festival is a marathon not a sprint and there is plenty to look forward to I would rather dabble each way on Henry de Bromhead’s gelding CAPTAIN GUINNESS, who is an old favourite of mine and a regular here at the Festival.

Lucinda Russell is a trainer that I love to have on my side for the Cheltenham Festival. It’s not simply that she has got to be one of the nicest people in racing but, more importantly from the viewpoint of a gambler, she knows exactly how to prime one of her best horses for a big target. I have been wanting to put up APPLE AWAY for this meeting for some time but Russell, who has trained three Festival winners to date, made this difficult by initially entering her seven-year-old mare in four Cheltenham races over as many days. The Unibet Champion Hurdle is, of course, the traditional highlight of day one of the Festival We now know, finally, Apple Away’s one and only target: today’s Grade 2 Maureen Mullins National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Novices’ Chase (5.

It may come as a surprise that, even though we are just four days away from a certain major racing Festival in the Cotswolds, today’s betting column will be a no go area when it comes to putting up tips for Cheltenham next week. There are three reasons, all hopefully logical, for this approach. First, I (possibly even we if you follow my tips) already have eight horses in the ante-post portfolio from the past four months. Secondly, the value has gone in the current ante-post lists and, particularly for the big-race handicaps, it is now better to wait until after the 48-hour declarations when there will be more each-way places on offer from almost all bookies.

BENSON did this column a massive favour a year ago when landing the bet365 Morebattle Hurdle after being put up at 16-1 (he went off at a starting price of 11/1). In truth, he faces a stiffer task in the same race tomorrow because he is both one year older and running off the top weight of 12 stone in a fiercely-completive 18-runner handicap. However, with more rain forecast between now and the off, along with his trainer Sandy Thomson in fine form (six winners from his last 15 runners for a 40 per cent strike rate over the past 14 days), I am happy to stay loyal to this battle-hardened warrior on his 26th visit to the racetrack.

Tomorrow’s Bet Eider Handicap Chase at Newcastle is just the sort of marathon contest in which I usually like to have a bet but, with so many of the 13 runners out of form and the going likely to be very soft, I am happy to give it a miss this time around. Instead, I am going to turn my attention to the Cheltenham Festival, which is less than three weeks away. Unusually for me, as I tend to like the value odds often offered by horses from the smaller yards, I am going to put up two horses from the two most successful stables in Britain that have gone slightly under the radar.

The run-up to the Cheltenham Festival is a quiet time for many punters with some of the best horses in the land effectively wrapped-up in cotton wool so as not to sustain an injury that would keep them out of their big-race targets next month. However, there is plenty of competitive racing on offer at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton tomorrow. The Thoroughbred Industry Employee Awards Handicap Hurdle (Ascot, 2.25 p.m.) has certainly attracted a decent field of 16 runners, all hoping to land a pot of more than £26,000 for the winner. My preference is for BAD from the in-form Ben Pauling yard. This is a horse that, 11 months ago, was backed into odds of just 5-1 for the fiercely-competitive Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at the Festival.

The heavy rain of the past 48 hours is good news for two horses that I fancy for the ultra-competitive Betfair Hurdle tomorrow (Newbury, 3.15 p.m.). The ground is now ‘heavy, soft in places’ and more rain forecast later today. I put up BRENTFORD HOPE at 14-1 for the race four weeks ago and his best form on the Flat means that he is well weighted over hurdles, particularly now that he has his favoured cut in the ground. His trainer, Harry Derham, is in sparkling from with three winners from 11 runners in the past fortnight, for a 27 per cent strike rate. I still like his price of 14-1, now seven places, and so I am, unusually, going to back him again with a further one point each way bet with William Hill at those odds.

The two-day Dublin Racing Festival this weekend will – just as Cheltenham Trials Day did a week ago – provide a host of clues to which horses might win the big races at the Cheltenham Festival in mid-March. I covered tomorrow’s Grade1 Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle (Leopardstown, 1.20 p.m.) in my column two weeks ago. I still fancy Jetara to see off her five rivals, all from the yards of Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott. Sadly, the odds of 10-1 for Jessica Harrington’s talented mare and the three places that were available a fortnight ago have both long gone. There are plenty of other fascinating races and an array of talent on show in Ireland but there are no more bets there for me.

If a glittering eight-race card at Cheltenham tomorrow doesn’t whet the appetite for the Festival in less than two months’ time, then nothing will. Plenty of reputations will go on the line at Festival Trials Day and there will be an abundance of clues to which horses might be winning huge prizes between 12 March and 15 March inclusive. Unsurprisingly, there are plenty of Cheltenham regulars in the Paddy Power Cheltenham Countdown Podcast Handicap Chase (Cheltenham 1.15 p.m.) headed by Il Ridoto. Paul Nicholls’s seven-year-old gelding has run no less than six of his seven most recent races at the course, including winning this race last year. However, that was off an official mark of 138 and he will race tomorrow off a mark of 148.

With tomorrow’s cards at Ascot and Haydock both victims of the cold snap, and Lingfield’s Sunday meeting under threat, it makes sense to look ahead with some ante-post bets, for once on both sides of the Irish Sea. I like to back horses in the Randox Grand National a long way ahead of the race in order to get the best odds It’s not often that I gamble on races in Ireland but I like the look of JETARA at double figure odds in the Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival on 3 February. This race at Leopardstown is highly likely to be dominated by geldings from the Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott yards but it is an improving six-year-old mare trained by Jessica Harrington who could surprise her rivals.

Most racehorse trainers are creatures of habit and they love to target races which they have won in previous years. Alan King consistently hopes to win the Wigley Group Classic Handicap with one of his best staying chasers. He has enjoyed regular success in the race, winning it no less than three times, in 2008, 2011 and 2021. It’s only a matter of time before Derham lands a major prize with one of his talented string This year’s contest (Warwick 3 p.m., tomorrow), run over three miles five furlongs, has long been the target for King’s talented chaser, MAJOR DUNDEE, and the Wiltshire-based handler would like his nine-year old gelding to win the race in good style for two main reasons.

At 8 a.m. this morning, my column was done, the ‘i’s were dotted, the ‘t’s crossed. I had even suggested a headline, ‘Three mudlarks for Sandown tomorrow’.  Within half an hour, I would be pressing the send button on my weekly email to my friends at Spectator Life. Sadly, just 20 minutes later, the whole column was redundant. My three fancies that loved heavy ground would not have the chance to lark around in the mud: tomorrow’s Sandown card, the highlight of which was due to be the final of the Unibet Veterans’ Handicap Chase, was abandoned due to waterlogging.

I am slightly surprised at the way that bookmakers have priced up Monday’s Paddy Power New Year's Day Handicap Chase (Cheltenham 2.05 p.m.). Stage Star is a lovely young horse who has, with the exception of a flop at Aintree in April at the end of a long season, improved with every race over the past year. As a result, he is rightly vying for favouritism with Allaho for the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March. However, the New Year’s Day contest is a handicap and he must give the best part of two stones to most of his rivals, some of them pretty decent in their own right. I can see why he might be edging favouritism in three days’ time but odds of evens or, in some cases, odds on seem far too short.

There are only some seven weeks left for connections to get their horses qualified for the 2024 Randox Grand National. This year it will be harder than ever to get a run in the Aintree marathon, with just 34 runners, instead of the usual 40, for safety reasons. That means a horse will need an official rating of around 147 to be almost certain of getting into the race when the weights are announced in mid-February. Tomorrow there are at least two horses who will be looking to win the Betfred Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (Haydock 1.30 p.m.) and not just for the £26,000 first prize. Borders trainer and jockey team Stuart Coltherd and his son, Sam, are keen to run their eight-year-old gelding COOPER’S CROSS in the Grand National on 13 April.

I have followed the fortunes of GIN COCO closely for the past two seasons and, even though the gelding will turn eight on New Year’s Day, I am convinced his best days still lie ahead of him. He has been lightly raced during his career with three wins from just nine runs and he could yet go novice chasing next year. Gin Coco is clearly a much better horse on good rather than soft ground. The official going of ‘soft’ was initially thought to have been the reason for poor run in the County Hurdle at this year’s Cheltenham Festival. It later transpired, however, that he had fractured his pelvis during the race and so he did well to win his second race back from a break at Ascot last month.

There are a lot of extremely able jump trainers in Britain but only a handful are really adept at successfully preparing a horse for a big target, such as a race at the Cheltenham Festival or one of the season’s most valuable handicaps. These are typically the contests in which the leading Irish trainers also enter their best horses and so they are fiercely competitive. Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson and Dan Skelton clearly all deserve a place on this ‘top target trainer’ list for winning so many top prizes, while the likes of Nigel Twiston-Davies, Venetia Williams and Jonjo O’Neill have also had more than their fair share of big-race success over the years.

The weather is going to play a key role in the outcome of tomorrow’s big race, the Coral Gold Cup (Newbury, 2.50 p.m.). To start with, the cold snap might even claim the card altogether with a course inspection due at 7.30 a.m. on race day. Secondly, after little rain over the past fortnight, the going is likely to be ‘good to soft’ or quicker when the frost covers come off and horses that prefer decent ground will be favoured. The top three horses in the market – Monbeg Genius, Complete Unknown and Mahler Mission – all look well-handicapped, particularly the former on his run in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. However, all three horses would also be happier with more cut in the ground.

There are two high-class chases taking place tomorrow – one at Haydock and the other at Ascot. They will have a bearing on the betting markets for the Ladbrokes King George VI at Kempton on Boxing Day and the Cheltenham Festival. However, neither race this weekend is now an attractive betting proposition because each has attracted just four runners. I suggested a bet a week ago in the Grade 1 Betfair Chase (Haydock 3 p.m.) at a time when most bookmakers were still offering three places. So I am pleased to see that Corach Rambler, put up each way at 14-1, now only has three rivals tomorrow. However, I am fully aware that he is the lowest rated horse in the race and it is perfectly possible that he could still finish fourth (or indeed not finish at all).

Cheltenham’s November meeting is, as usual, a meeting to savour and I am looking forward to my first visit to the Cotswold track this season when I attend tomorrow’s seven-race card. I put up two tips for tomorrow’s big race, the Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.20 p.m.), last week and I was pleased to see that both horses were declared yesterday. There are dangers aplenty but I have nothing to add other than it’s a question of the more rain the better for Fugitif and that would suit Notlongtillmay well enough too. I was sorely tempted to put up an old favourite of mine, Gin Coco, for the Unibet Greatwood Hurdle on Sunday (3.30 p.m.).

Richard Hobson is a trainer that I have a lot of time for. He always gets the best out of his small string and he is always willing to share information with journalists about the well-being of his horses and their big-race targets. He places his horses well too, even if it means going to the other side of the English Channel in search of better prize money. Hobson’s stable star FUGITIF is due to make his seasonal debut a week from tomorrow in the highly-competitive Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham’s November meeting. This eight-year-old gelding ticks a lot of boxes for this contest, notably he has strong form over the course and distance of the race.