Michael Simmons

The unemployment rate has risen to 4.6 per cent, the Office for National Statistics has revealed. This morning's figures mark the first proper reading of the jobs market since April, when the minimum wage was hiked and the £25 billion raid on employer National Insurance started. It's not just the joblessness rate rising: the number of payrolled employees fell by 55,000 between March and April, and by 115,000 compared to a year earlier. A flash estimate for May (which will be revised) shows an even starker picture: down 109,000 in a single month and 274,000 year-on-year. In other words, a city the size of Southampton has effectively been wiped off the payroll.

When Rachel Reeves last week tried to shift the narrative around her spending review – from one of fiscal restraint to ‘spend, spend, spend’ – she ‘unveiled’ £113 billion in infrastructure investment. But for those in Westminster with more than a short-term memory, they will have felt a distinct sense of déjà vu. That’s because much of what Reeves announced had already appeared on gov.uk more than 18 months ago. These were Conservative plans, shelved for the election, now revived under a different party banner. Last week, Rachel Reeves announced £1.5 billion in funding to improve trams and buses in south Yorkshire. Eighteen months ago, the plans for south Yorkshire stood at £1.5 billion. In Liverpool, it’s the same story: £1.6 billion then, and £1.

Rachel Reeves has been warned again that the slim headroom against her ‘ironclad’ fiscal rule could be wiped out if growth prospects worsen. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said in its latest economic outlook for the UK that ‘very thin fiscal buffers could be insufficient to provide adequate support without breaching the fiscal rules in the event of renewed adverse shocks’. The OECD also downgraded Britain's growth forecast. It predicted the economy will grow by 1.3 per cent in 2025 and then just 1 per cent next year – a fall from their previous forecast of 1.4 and 1.2 per cent. The OECD said this downgrade was caused by continuing uncertainty surrounding trade caused by Donald Trump’s tariffs and high interest rates.

Changes to how inheritance tax and trusts are treated for non-doms have already put the nation’s finances on shakier ground – something I revealed in a cover story last month. Now, a new report suggests these anti-business Treasury policies may risk killing off Britain’s family firms too. Fresh analysis by the CBI’s economics consultancy, commissioned by Family Business UK, warns that these changes to inheritance tax could jeopardise more than 208,000 full-time jobs over the course of this Parliament. That’s more than the entire construction workforce in London. The report says that as small firms retreat from long-term investment, the wider economic consequences could be severe.

Overnight three federal judges on the United States Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump’s worldwide tariffs are unlawful and blocked them from going into effect. A group of businesses had taken the President’s administration to court, successfully arguing that the tariffs announced on ‘Liberation Day’ were beyond the powers of the presidency.The ruling made clear that the US Congress has sole authority on passing legislation affecting cross-border trade. The White House immediately appealed and argued that the court does not have the right to rule on the matter.

Figures just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show the UK unemployment rate has risen to 4.5 per cent, the number of people on company payrolls has dropped by 63,000 over the past year, and there are 131,000 fewer job vacancies than at this time last year. Today’s employment data covers the period up to March – before the rise in the minimum wage and the Chancellor’s £25 billion national insurance hike took effect. The fact that the labour market was already faltering beforehand shows how deeply businesses were bracing for impact. It’s now the third consecutive month in which firms have shed jobs, and April's data could turn out even worse.