Michael Simmons

Michael Simmons

Michael Simmons is The Spectator's economics editor. Contact him here.

Monday

Michael Simmons

Don’t forget Nicola Sturgeon’s real legacy

Nicola Sturgeon gets an easy ride with the English media. This weekend, with a book to flog and an image to launder, we’ve had to endure another round of interviews with the former first minister. And what have we learnt? Her sexuality is ‘non-binary’; she has ‘famed emotional intelligence’; she handled Covid better than Boris; she is the most successful woman in politics since Margaret Thatcher. Some of that may be true, some of it demonstrably false. But what matters is the Scotland she left behind. To judge the success of Scotland – and those who lead it – three categories matter most. Two were once sources of national pride; one has always been our Achilles’ heel.

Thursday

Michael Simmons

Has the Bank of England forgotten what its job is?

15 min listen

Some excitement on Threadneedle Street today after the Bank of England cut interest rates to 4 per cent. The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has just voted five to four – after a revote – for what is the third cut this year. This takes interest rates back down to levels not seen since the beginning of 2023. Concerns about an increasingly slack labour market seem to have driven the MPC’s decision. This sounds like good news – and Starmer will welcome it as such – but the Bank’s apparent comfort with loosening policy in this context is baffling says Michael Simmons. Its own forecasts show inflation climbing back to 4 per cent by September – double the official target.

Michael Simmons

Has the Bank of England forgotten what its job is?

The Bank of England has cut interest rates to 4 per cent. Threadneedle Street’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has just voted five to four, after a revote, for what is the third cut this year. This takes interest rates back down to levels not seen since the beginning of 2023. Concerns about an increasingly slack labour market seem to have driven the MPC’s decision. A second vote was required – the first since 1998 – because initially four members of the committee voted for a 0.25 per cent cut but one member voted for a larger cut of 0.5 per cent. Markets expect the rate to be cut once more to 3.75 per cent before Christmas. Governor Andrew Bailey sounded cautious, saying: ‘We’ve cut interest rates today, but it was a finely balanced decision.

Wednesday

Michael Simmons

What Douglas Murray’s court win means for press freedom

10 min listen

The Spectator and Douglas Murray have comprehensively won a defamation case brought by Mohammed Hegab. Hegab, a YouTuber who posts under the name Mohammed Hijab, claimed that an article about the Leicester riots, written by Douglas Murray and published by The Spectatorin September 2022, caused serious harm to his reputation and led to a loss of earnings. However, the judge found that the article did not cause serious harm to Hijab, that what was published was substantially true, and that Hijab had ‘lied on significant issues’ in court and had given evidence that ‘overall, is worthless’. What does this case mean for the future of press freedom?

Michael Simmons

Has Rachel Reeves created a £50 billion fiscal black hole?

The Chancellor’s black hole is getting bigger and tax rises are coming. That’s the judgement of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) whose model of the UK economy has forecast she must find £50 billion of revenue or cuts if she’s to return to the £9.9 billion of fiscal headroom she left herself in the spring.   Some now believe the gap is so large Reeves may have to break Labour’s manifesto pledge not to increase income tax, VAT or employee national insurance Reeves’s self-imposed and ‘ironclad’ fiscal rules require her to abolish the deficit by the end of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) five-year forecast. NIESER’s model says Reeves is now £41.

Saturday

Michael Simmons

Online Safety Act: are Labour or the Tories worse on free speech?

27 min listen

Is the Online Safety Act protecting children – or threatening free speech? Michael Simmons hosts John Power, who writes the Spectator's cover piece this week on how the Act has inadvertently created online censorship. Implemented and defended by the current Labour government, it is actually the result of legislation passed by the Conservatives in 2023 – which Labour did not support at the time, arguing it didn’t go far enough. Michael and John joined by former Conservative MP Miriam Cates who defends the core aims and principles at the heart of the Act. They debate the principles of Big Tech, the risks of government overreach and whether freedom of expression is under threat. Produced by Megan McElroy and Patrick Gibbons.

Friday

Michael Simmons

Why can’t we agree on data?

12 min listen

John O’Neill and Sam McPhail, the Spectator’s research and data team, join economics editor Michael Simmons to re-introduce listeners to the Spectator’s data hub. They take us through the process between the data hub and how their work feeds into the weekly magazine. From crime to migration, which statistics are the most controversial? Why can’t we agree on data? Plus – whose data is presented better, the Americans or the French? For more from the Spectator’s data hub – which may, or may not look like the thumbnail photo – go to: data.spectator.co.uk Produced by Patrick Gibbons and Megan McElroy.

Michael Simmons

Michael Simmons, Kapil Komireddi, Margaret Mitchell, David Abulafia and Melissa Kite

27 min listen

On this week’s Spectator Out Loud: Michael Simmons argues that Trump is winning the tariff war with China; Kapil Komireddi reviews Robert Ivermee’s Glorious Failure: The Forgotten History of French Imperialism in India; Margaret Mitchell watches a Channel 4 documentary on Bonnie Blue and provides a warning to parents; David Abulafia provides his notes on wax seals; and, Melissa Kite says that her B&B is the opposite of organic. Produced and presented by Patrick Gibbons.

Wednesday

Michael Simmons

Trump’s tariffs are taming China

Stockholm This week, the fate of the global economy could have been decided over a Mongolian barbecue in a Stockholm tourist trap. On Tuesday, just 50 yards from Sweden’s seat of government, Rosenbad – where the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng had been wrangling over trade negotiations – the Chinese delegation suddenly exited the talks and headed for lunch near the Mongolian buffet place, where they had eaten the day before. Its windows were covered up and a sign announced it would be closed for three days for a ‘private event’. The Americans stayed behind, making do with salad.

Tuesday

Michael Simmons

The US-China trade war is not over yet

Stockholm, Sweden The United States and China have concluded two days of trade negotiations in Stockholm without reaching an agreement to extend the truce in their ongoing trade war. Shortly after the talks ended, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who led the American delegation, told reporters that any decision to extend the current 12 August deadline – at which point tariffs would revert to 34 per cent – rests solely with President Trump. A meeting between Trump and President Xi Jinping was not on the agenda. The Chinese delegation said both sides had agreed to ‘push’ for such an extension. Bessent, along with Trump’s trade adviser Jamieson Greer, told me that three key issues continue to prevent serious progress. The first is procedural.

Thursday

Michael Simmons

Keir’s Indian Summer

The UK has finally signed a free-trade deal with India after three-and-a-half years of negotiation. The agreement will open up trade for cars, whisky, clothing and food products, with ministers claiming it will boost the British economy by £4.8 billion. For Keir Starmer, it offers much-needed economic and political good news. For Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, it shows that the £3 trillion Indian economy is willing to shake off its protectionist tradition and open up to international investors. Lucy Dunn discusses with James Heale and Michael Simmons.

Wednesday

Michael Simmons

How to write a political sketch – with Madeline Grant

10 min listen

As MPs depart Westminster for parliamentary recess, The Spectator's political sketch writer Madeline Grant joins Natasha Feroze and economics editor Michael Simmons to talk about how to sketch PMQs and why Keir Starmer makes for the best sketches. Also on the podcast, Michael Simmons looks at the promising FTSE at record high following Trump's trade deal with Japan and the gloomy national debt figures announced yesterday.

Tuesday

Michael Simmons

Britain is broke

Britain is continuing to chuck billions onto our mounting pile of debt. Figures just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that last month the state had to borrow just under £21 billion. That was £6.6 billion more than in June last year and the second-highest June borrowing total since records began 32 years ago. The ONS confirmed the surge in borrowing was a continuation of the fiscal doom loop this country now finds itself in. ‘The rising costs of providing public services and a jump in the debt interest we have to pay on inflation-linked gilts outweighed increased revenue brought in from tax hikes. Interest due on our debt hit £16.4 billion in June, which was £8.

Sunday

Michael Simmons

Why Reeves should sell her bitcoin hoards

Deep fried prawn balls, chicken chow mein, crispy shredded beef and a Ponzi scheme could be about to win the Chancellor a decent chunk of her headroom back. If Reeves does press ‘sell’, she will be accused of ‘pulling a Gordon Brown’ As Rachel Reeves starts sketching out her autumn Budget, most of the focus has been on the tax hikes she’ll need if she’s serious about sticking to the ‘ironclad’ fiscal rules she recommitted to just last week. Economists reckon the wafer-thin £9.9 billion margin she left herself at the Spring Statement has already been wiped out and that she’s now staring down a black hole of over £20 billion.

Thursday

Michael Simmons

How the Bank broke Britain, Zelensky’s choice & the joys of mudlarking

49 min listen

First up: how the Bank of England wrecked the economy Britain’s economy is teetering on the brink of a deep fiscal hole, created by billions of pounds of unfunded spending – never-ending health promises, a spiralling welfare bill and a triple lock on the state pension, which will cost three times as much as originally estimated. Although politicians ‘deserve much of the blame for the economic state we’re in’, it’s Andrew Bailey – Michael Simmons argues in the magazine this week – who ‘has enabled their recklessness’. He joined the podcast to discuss who really broke Britain with Kate Andrews, Deputy Editor of The Spectator’s world edition and former Economics Editor. (01:15) Next: has Ukraine lost faith in Zelensky?

Michael Simmons

Rachel Reeves’s tax raid is to blame for rising unemployment

Unemployment has hit 4.7 per cent – its highest level for four years after the Chancellor’s taxes on business caused jobs to slump. The figures, published this morning by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), also show payroll jobs down by 178,000 in the 12 months to June and by 41,000 between May and June. The line that Rachel Reeves’ decision – namely her £25 billion employer national insurance tax raid – is hampering the job market is becoming a strong one. Andrew Griffith, shadow business secretary, said: ‘Unemployment is the only thing growing under Labour.’ As Reeves weighs up tax rises likely to fall heavily on businesses to plug fiscal holes, it’s an area we can expect the opposition to continue to push on.

Michael Simmons

Broke Britain: how the Bank of England wrecked the economy

In February 2020, a few weeks before Britain was thrown into lockdown, Sajid Javid resigned as chancellor of the exchequer over a bust-up with the prime minister’s chief adviser, Dominic Cummings. The fight was thought to be over Cummings’s attempts to dictate who could and could not work in No. 11. In fact, it was just one skirmish in a long-running and bitter power struggle between the two men. Two months before his resignation, Javid had claimed victory in a different battle against Cummings – one over who would occupy the governor’s office at the Bank of England. Cummings wanted Andy Haldane, then the Bank’s chief economist, who he believed was intellectually curious, allergic to groupthink and might give the Bank the shake-up it needed.

Wednesday

Michael Simmons

Mel Stride: ‘what I would do differently’

12 min listen

Last night, Rachel Reeves was the headline act at the Mansion House dinner. In her speech, she made the case that ‘Britain is open for business’ and that we must ‘stay competitive in the global economy’. Critics would say it is hard to claim to be open for business while having also overseen a £25 billion national insurance tax raid that is now known to be costing thousands of jobs. She began by stressing that, despite what recent reporting might suggest, she is ‘okay’ – the economic indicators, however, suggest that the economy is far from okay. Just this morning, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that inflation hit 3.6 per cent in the year to June – well above the 2 per cent target.

Michael Simmons

Rising inflation shows how the Bank of England is failing

The rate of inflation climbed to 3.6 per cent in June – up from 3.4 per cent in May. That’s well above the 2 per cent target that the Bank of England consistently misses. It begs the question why the Bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey, spent the weekend talking up rate cuts, when as one former Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member put it to me recently: ‘The job is not yet done’. This morning’s inflation figures, released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), show much of the increase in prices was driven by motor fuel costs, but clothing and footwear, leisure activities and booze were up too. Food inflation has increased for a third month in a row to its highest level in more than a year at 4.5 per cent, the ONS said.

Tuesday

Michael Simmons

No, Rachel Reeves: Britain doesn’t look ‘open for business’

Rachel Reeves wants Britain to become a shareholder democracy. In her annual Mansion House speech to the City’s bankers, accountants and financial advisors, she said ‘for too long, we have presented investment in too negative a light’. She’s right. These changes are unlikely to unleash the ‘big bang’ of prosperity and tax revenues the Chancellor badly wants and badly needs The Chancellor meant that regulation – which she called the ‘boot on the neck of business’ – has led to too many scary warnings about the risks of investing and not enough talking up of the benefits. She’s referring to the legally mandated ‘investment carries risk’ type messages you hear on any investment adverts – including on our own Coffee House Shots podcast.