Matthew Lynn

Matthew Lynn is a financial columnist and author of ‘Bust: Greece, The Euro and The Sovereign Debt Crisis’ and ‘The Long Depression: The Slump of 2008 to 2031’

The death of the male working class

This recession is a global ‘mancession’, says Matthew Lynn, with male-dominated industries collapsing and women getting a greater share of new jobs. But if work is turning into a female domain, what are we going to do with all the redundant men? Remember the feminist slogans of the 1970s? Phrases such as ‘A woman needs a man like a fish needs a bicycle’ and ‘Adam and Even’ sounded comic at the time. Now, 40 years on, they seem less like the absurd hopes of the dungaree-clad sisterhood, and more like shrewd insights into the economic future. The once preposterous-sounding idea that women would outnumber men in the workplace is now a reality. It has just happened in America and, if current trends persist, it will happen in Britain in four years time.

Let Greece go bust

The Greeks lied and cheated their way into the eurozone, says Matthew Lynn — and letting them get away with it through a bailout threatens the euro with collapse When Greece officially replaced the drachma with the euro on 1 January 2001, nobody was in the mood to mourn the world’s oldest currency. A public holiday was declared for 2 January, ushering in a week of celebrations as the country joined the club of rich European countries. Whatever regrets people might have had about losing a currency with which Alexander the Great was familiar were drowned out by the promise of future prosperity.

The mother of all market crashes

Matthew Lynn marks the 20th anniversary of the peak of the Nikkei and asks whether we’ve learned any lessons Twenty years ago this month, as we’ve been reminded by countless documentaries, the Berlin Wall was coming down. Eastern Europe was convulsed by the revolutions from which communism never recovered. But much further east, something else was happening which arguably has had just as profound an impact on how the global economy has developed since then. The rampant bull market in Japanese equities was heading for its final, frenzied peak. For stockmarket historians, 29 December 1989 will always be a key date.

Santander: the bank that escaped the credit crunch

Matthew Lynn investigates the rise and rise of the family-run Spanish bank that now has 24 million British customers — and wonders whether its story is too good to be true If ever a banking deal came with the curse of the black spot, it was the takeover of Dutch bank ABN Amro at the height of the last boom in 2007. Three European banks teamed up to launch a hostile £49 billion raid, the largest financial takeover in European history. Two of them went to a horrible fate: our own Royal Bank of Scotland, which dreamed up the deal, had to be rescued by Gordon Brown, while the Belgium-Dutch group Fortis was itself nationalised soon afterwards.

The quiet agony of the recession generation

It’s easy to spot a member of the recession generation. They’re the sober, thoughtful young people. They’re our sons, daughters, nieces, nephews and friends aged between about 18 and 23 and beginning their adult lives at a time when six million are on benefits. Like the generation above, they love iPods and TopShop. But they’re not as brash or confident as their older siblings. And this is because they have just taken an almighty knock at an early stage in their young lives. They feel that someone has stolen their future. Generation Recession are confused and cross because they’ve been sold a pup by the government, their teachers and even their parents.

Investment: stock markets

We’re all Shanghai gamblers now You might think yourself a fairly cautious investor. Maybe you dabble in a few shares and unit trusts, probably in major, well-established markets such as the US, Japan or Germany, as well as London. Emerging markets, and in particular the wild frontier that is China, you might reckon best left to professionals. And if you do occasionally take a few exotic punts, you’re very likely to restrict them to 10 per cent or so of your portfolio. But if you believe your exposure to the great Eastern dragon is modest or negligible, you’re wrong. It turns out that we’re all playing the Shanghai market now.

Credit card debt: the crunch yet to come

We’ve been bingeing on plastic for the past decade, says Matthew Lynn, and the £54 billion we owe as a result is about to knock another hole in the banking system One year on from the period of panic that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers, you might be forgiven for thinking the worst of the credit crunch was over. The banking system has steadied. The stock market looks perky. The housing market is limping out of the convalescent ward. The trouble is, you’d be wrong. The credit crunch has a nasty little sibling, with whom we are yet to be fully acquainted. Call it the credit card crunch — except it’s not so much a crunch as the financial equivalent of a full-scale pile-up on the M1.

A fatal crash for Porsche and Volkswagen?

Gary Lineker once observed that football was a simple game in which 22 men ran around the pitch, and then the Germans won. Much the same could be said of the car industry. It’s a simple enough business, in which everyone spends billions on big factories and flashy dealerships. And then the Germans make all the money. Until now, that is. In the last year, through a spectacular mixture of family pride, in-fighting and historical resentment, two of the mightiest names in German industrial history, the car-makers Porsche and Volkswagen, have steered themselves to the edge of cata-strophe. It’s a story of hubris on an epic scale.

Brown’s nemesis awaits — and his name is Brian

Who will finally sit Gordon Brown down with a bottle of whisky, a loaded revolver and a copy of his own book on courage, and tell him the game is up? You might imagine the task would fall to Jack Straw, flanked by a couple of union bosses. In fact, it’s more likely to be three men you’ve never heard of: Frank Gill, Arnaud Mares and Brian Coulton. Working respectively for the ratings agencies Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch, this trio have the job of deciding whether the UK can pay back the hundreds of millions of pounds Brown’s government is borrowing every day through the gilts market in order to keep afloat. One day soon, it may be their job to declare that it can’t.

Can mercenaries defeat the Somali pirates?

Jim Cowling has chosen the right moment to launch his new business. An experienced security consultant, he has just set up a company called Shipguard, with a small office in Clerkenwell. The product: providing the men, the know-how, and if necessary the weapons, to defeat the pirates that are the scourge of Somali waters. ‘We’re one of the groups throwing our hats into the ring,’ says Cowling. ‘This is going to be the next Iraq in terms of where mercenaries are going. Iraq is being wound down, and guys are looking around and latching onto piracy.’ He is far from alone. In the past year, as pirates have menaced the Gulf and the Indian Ocean demanding bigger and bigger ransoms, so dozens of companies have sprung up to fight them.

Green shoots are out there somewhere

Recessions end. Even the Great Depression of the 1930s, about which we have heard so much recently, eventually ran its course, though it took a world war to get business booming again. ‘Thatcher’s wasteland’ of dole queues, urban riots and closed steel mills in the early 1980s gave way swiftly to a world of rampant yuppies and triumphant admen. But when both the British and the world economy finally emerge, dazed and blinking, from the savage recession now upon us, it will look very different.

The men who called the markets right

It has been a terrible 12 months for investors. It didn’t make much difference whether you invested in stocks, commodities or corporate bonds, the chances were you took a hammering. Even gold failed to sparkle as the credit crunch cut a swath through every kind of asset class. And yet there were a few individuals who managed to make fortunes as the markets tumbled. In the US, John Paulson cleaned up by betting big against the subprime mortgage market. Over here, amid the general gloom along Mayfair’s Hedge Fund Alley, there were a couple of money managers who could still afford somewhere better than Pret a Manger for lunch. BlueGold rode commodity markets to perfection, making money on the way up and on the way down again.

City death: why so many moneymen kill themselves

Among the many overused clichés that have been dusted off to describe the chaos in financial markets over the past few months is the observation that this is ‘a crisis like no other’. Yet in one rather dark respect, it is following convention to the letter. As losses pile up and billions evaporate, an increasing number of financiers have decided to take their own lives rather than face up to the scale of the catastrophe. In Germany, the billionaire Adolf Merckle threw himself under a train as one of Europe’s greatest family fortunes unravelled. In this country, Kirk Stephenson took the same way out after his private equity firm ran into trouble.

Private bankers run into very public trouble

Matthew Lynn says banks that prospered by offering exclusive ‘wealth management’ services during the boom years are about to encounter some very angry customers Of all the phrases in the financial lexicon, ‘private banker’ is one of the most evocative. It summons up images of discreet addresses in the more remote Swiss cantons, of luxuriously furnished townhouses in Mayfair, of chequebooks printed in florid script, of pinstriped executives who never stint on the second bottle of claret. Thriller writers find them as handy a plot device as a fully loaded Beretta. Nothing else manages to wrap up tradition, snobbery and timeless financial solidity quite so completely in one institution. Until now, that is.

Is gold still a safe haven?

It would be hard to imagine a worse run of events for paper money. Investment banks such as Lehman Brothers have drowned in a sea of subprime debt. Building societies such as Bradford & Bingley, once so dull and safe they made fun of it in their ads, have had to be nationalised. In the case of Iceland, a whole country suddenly went pop. So you might think it would have been a great year for the world’s oldest form of money: gold. Fleeing a bankrupt monetary system, investors would seek the security of ingots and krugerrands. Except, as it happens, they didn’t. Among the many fascinating sub-plots to the credit crunch has been the way the ‘gold bugs’ — as die-hard enthusiasts for the metal are known in the City — have finally been nailed.

General Motors must be allowed to crash

There is probably no company in the world as iconic as General Motors. As the manufacturer of Cadillacs, Buicks and Chevrolets, as well as Opels in Europe and Vauxhalls in Britain, it would be no exaggeration to describe GM as the corporation that perfected 20th-century industrial capitalism. Henry Ford created the first mass-production car 100 years ago but it was GM, under the leadership of Alfred Sloan in the 1920s, that completed the package. Easy credit, brand segmentation, mass advertising, conspicuous consumption, built-in obsolescence: the tools of the modern multinational were hammered into shape by Sloan, then deployed to crush all opposition as the first truly global manufacturer.

Safe as houses: why Nationwide survived

Matthew Lynn says Britain’s largest building society prospered by refusing to follow fashion — while its bolder, greedier rivals have all gone bust or been taken over Over the last 25 years, Aesop’s fable of the tortoise and the hare has been a poor guide to financial markets. As the swashbuckling investment banks rose in power and influence, every- one had their money on the fast, fluffy creature with the big ears. In markets that favoured speed, innovation and boldness, there wasn’t much space left for slow, solid creatures with shells on their backs. Until now, that is. In the wake of the credit crunch, financial tortoises may be having their moment. And tortoises don’t come much more solid than the Nationwide Building Society.

The decline of the empire of Starbucks

Matthew Lynn says coffee is the pure brew of capitalism — as the credit crunch bites, no wonder the world’s most ubiquitous coffee-house chain is heading for trouble In Christopher Guest’s witty canine mockumentary Best In Show, there is a line of dialogue that tells you everything you need to know about the world’s biggest coffee chain. ‘We met at Starbucks,’ says a woman character of her current romance. ‘Not the same Starbucks, but we saw each other at different Starbucks across the street from each other.’ Not many companies are so instantly recognisable that their brand names can be dropped straight into a movie without introduction. Nor are there many whose ubiquity could be the punchline for a gag.

Pound sold to highest bidder

Matthew Lynn on domain name sales In Amsterdam, on the afternoon of 26 June, the pound is finally being sold off. No, Gordon Brown hasn’t decided to repeat his famous trick of dumping a chunk of the nation’s gold reserves at the nadir of the bullion market. Nor has Mervyn King decided the outlook for the British economy is now so grim he might as well sell what he can before taking himself off to Grand Cayman. Instead, ‘£.com’ is up for sale. The winner of the auction for what its owners, with a lively sense of hyperbole describe as the ‘World’s Most Exclusive Financial Domain’, will be able to use the £ sign for anything they like.

Will the wisdom of Warren Buffett translate into German?

Matthew Lynn wonders whether the world’s greatest investor will be able to pick winners in continental Europe the way he has for more than four decades in the US If Warren Buffett had not become famous as the world’s richest man — a career choice that trumps most alternatives — he could still have carved out a niche for himself as a writer of homely lessons in economics and business. The Sage of Omaha, as Buffett is known for his uncanny knack of calling the markets right, has always been able to explain his decisions in simple language. Buffettisms such as ‘Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No.