Katy Balls

This evening, MPs have a chance to try and take control of Brexit by voting on a series of amendments to a government motion on extending Article 50. With Theresa May struggling to keep any semblance of control after her deal was voted down for a second time on Tuesday evening, there is a real worry in government that May could be heading for her third consecutive Commons defeat in as many days. Among the amendments to be voted on are a call for indicative votes on Brexit scenarios, an Article 50 extension accompanied by a promise to rethink the current strategy and a pledge for a second referendum. To the surprise of many, John Bercow selected TIG MP Sarah Wollaston's second referendum amendment calling for the government to bring legislation for a public vote with Remain as an option.

This evening Theresa May's week went from awful to terrible. After her deal was heavily defeated for a second time on Tuesday night, the Prime Minister had planned to placate MPs by offering them a free vote on whether they wished to try and rule out a no deal Brexit. As Isabel reports on Coffee House, that plan soon backfired. A backbench amendment from Tory MP Caroline Spelman to try and rule out no deal in more explicit terms than the government's motion passed by four votes. At that point, the government changed its voting strategy and whipped its MPs to vote against the motion – effectively voting to keep no deal as an option. This led to much confusion in the voting lobbies.

How heavily will Theresa May's deal be defeated this evening? After the DUP announced that they would not be backing the deal in light of the new concessions, it looks near impossible for it to pass this evening. However, there is still much to play for when it comes to managing the size of the defeat. The so-called 'star chamber' of Brexiteer legal minds have said that the changes to the deal fall short of what was asked of May. This is in line with the Attorney General's legal advice – which warned the risk of being trapped in the backstop remained. Yet despite this there has been a steady drip of Leave MPs who voted against the deal last time coming out to say that this time they will be backing it (see Steerpike's rolling list here).

There's long been a view among senior Brexiteers that the way the EU and UK would agree a deal would be by running the negotiations down to the wire and Brussels offering a last minute concession. This appeared to be the strategy in play on Monday night as Theresa May found herself locked in talks on changes to the backstop in Strasbourg with less than 24 hours to go until her deal is due to be voted on in the Commons. In turn, David Lidington was given the undesirable task of addressing frustrated MP in the Chamber. Theresa May's de facto deputy adopted an apologetic tone at the despatch box – apologising first for the lack of prior notice to his statement and then saying sorry for not being able to offer MPs a complete update on the negotiations which are ongoing.

When Jess Phillips first entered parliament in 2015, she quickly made the headlines after she told Diane Abbott to 'f--- off' when they had a disagreement over whether Jeremy Corbyn had appointed enough women to his shadow cabinet. Since then, Phillips is frequently in the news for speaking up on the political issues she cares about – recently going viral for a speech on olives in which she lambasted the government for earnings caps on immigrants. I'm delighted to have Phillips as a guest on The Spectator's Women With Balls podcast. When we spoke last month, we discussed what it's like to go viral, growing up in a political family and her perspective on class in Westminster.

After weeks of speculation, Michel Barnier has finally revealed the concession Brussels is willing to grant Theresa May on the backstop. The only problem is one could argue it's not actually a concession. Instead, it's the Northern Ireland-only backstop the UK negotiating team previously vetoed. This afternoon the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator told ambassadors the EU is willing to give Britain a unilateral exit from the UK-wide parts of the backstop plan for Northern Ireland. He has since taken to social media to set out exactly what the EU is offering: https://twitter.

Geoffrey Cox is in Brussels attempting to achieve a breakthrough on the backstop. So far, the Attorney General's efforts have not gone entirely to plan – with the word in Brussels that the first night of talks with Michel Barnier went badly. If Cox cannot win a significant concession on the backstop that will allow him to change his legal advice, there is little chance of Theresa May's deal passing next week. However, even if he is successful in his aim there's a chance it won't be enough to win over Tory eurosceptics. As I write in the i paper, there is an increasing pessimism within the Cabinet that May can pass her deal next week. There are rebels returning to the fold, but at nothing like the speed that would be needed to reverse a 230-vote defeat.

Are Brexiteer MPs about to row in behind May’s deal? This is the question that has dominated the weekend's papers with speculation rising that the threat of a delay to Brexit – or no Brexit – means the European Research Group (ERG) are ready to soften their red lines. Sir Graham Brady – chair of the 1922 committee of Conservative backbenchers – has used an op-ed in the Mail on Sunday to say that he is now ready to back the Prime Minister's deal – so long as the 'right compromise is offered'. The Sunday Times splashes 'Brexiteers offer peace terms to May' with news of three tests the ERG will use to test out what ever concession the government returns from Brussels with.

When the week began, there was speculation that a group of ministers would resign over Theresa May's Brexit stance. The Prime Minister had been warned that up to 22 members of government could quit unless she promised the chance for MPs to extend Article 50 if no deal looks likely. In the end, May blinked and paved the way for such a vote if her deal is rejected in two weeks' time. However, that decision has led to a government resignation that few were expecting. This afternoon George Eustice resigned as Defra minister over May's promise to allow MPs a vote on delaying Brexit if her deal is rejected.

This evening the government accepted an amendment to ensure the EU citizens’ rights package in the Withdrawal Agreement still stands if the U.K. leaves without a deal. The amendment tabled by Tory MP Alberto Costa won widespread support in the Commons – an endorsement from the Home Secretary and was eventually taken on by No 10. Despite this, Costa will head home this evening having left his role as a Parliamentary Private Secretary for the Scotland Office. Costa tended his resignation earlier today as PPSs are not supposed to put down amendments. I understand Costa was asked whether he still wanted the amendment to be in his name – he said he did and thereby resigned. On a procedural level this is all above board.

Faced with the prospect of defeat on an amendment to stop no deal, Theresa May has attempted to stave off that rebellion by promising MPs a vote to stop a no-deal Brexit. After a long and fiery Cabinet (James has the details here), the Prime Minister addressed the House to update MPs on her government's progress in the negotiations. She said that Geoffrey Cox was working with Brussels to win changes to the backstop and reconfirmed her promise to hold a meaningful vote on her deal by 12 March. However, should her deal be rejected by the House for a second time, May promised to hold a vote by 13 March on whether this House supports the UK leaving without a deal.

Jeremy Corbyn's announcement that the Labour party is prepared to back another EU referendum to prevent a 'damaging Tory Brexit' was intended to placate Remain-leaning MPs. However, it's also managed to irk those Labour politicians representing Leave seats. Tonight MPs gathered for a fiery meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party. It was standing room only as MPs crowded in to try and make sense of the latest Brexit development. Addressing MPs, Jeremy Corbyn struck a conciliatory tone – and according to a former shadow cabinet member present he gave one of his best speeches to date as he called on the party to come together.