Katy Balls

It's crunch day for the Labour/Tory Brexit talks. After a weekend of government leaks and briefings, both sides will today meet to see if a deal can be agreed. It's clear that Theresa May is keen to make an agreement with Jeremy Corbyn in order to pass some form of Brexit. The hope in Downing Street is that the disappointing local election results for both main parties will be enough to prompt the Labour leader to cut a deal. As for what that compromise will consist of, the government is willing to move on the customs arrangement – committing the UK to something very similar to a customs union (most likely a customs union in all but name) for the timebeing – but aiming to keep the option on the table for the trading relationship to change in the future.

Will Theresa May's decision to sack Gavin Williamson come back to haunt her? That's the question being asked in Westminster this morning after the Prime Minister fired the Defence Secretary alleging that he was behind a leak on Huawei from a meeting of the National Security Council to the Telegraph. The hope in No. 10 was that this decisive action would bring the episode to a close. That now seems rather optimistic. News of Williamson's sacking has made its way onto the front page of every paper – but most of the articles suggest it's not a black and white issue. They all note that doubt has been cast over what evidence No. 10 actually has against Williamson and reference the fact that he has sworn on his children's lives he is not behind the leak.

When Michael Fallon left government amid the 'pestminster' scandal two years ago, the expectation among Tory MPs was that Penny Mordaunt would be selected as his successor and moved to the Ministry of Defence. In the end, the role of Defence Secretary went to Gavin Williamson – who was seen as less qualified owing to the fact he had no military experience. Now Mordaunt has finally been given the job – following Theresa May's decision to sack Williamson over suspicions he was behind a leak from a meeting of the national security council. This makes Penny Mordaunt the UK’s first female defence secretary – departing her role in DfID – where she is succeeded by Rory Stewart. On paper, Mordaunt is well suited to the job.

As the Tories set expectations low for Thursday's local elections, Labour is in campaign mode. The party has released its third and final party political broadcast ahead of this week's votes. The theme of the short film is investment vs austerity attempting to lay out the reasoning behind the Labour slogan 'for the many not the few'. In it, a host offers five members of the public money back that they lost as a result of Tory austerity. Meanwhile, a billionaire is given a £20,000 tax cut. The film goes on to suggest that only the 'ordinary' people put the money back in the community – while the billionaire barely notices it and moves it abroad. https://www.youtube.com/watch?

How does Theresa May plan to spend the six-month Brexit extension? Nearly one month in and there is little sign of a Brexit breakthrough. The Labour/Tory talks are ongoing yet those inside the room are pessimistic they will lead to an imminent solution. It now seems as though there won't be much in the way of domestic legislation either. In a lobby briefing, a Downing Street spokesman has suggested that the next Queen’s speech is to be postponed: 'What we are focused on is the withdrawal agreement bill [WAB], because that is the legislation which is necessary in order to ratify our withdrawal from the EU. That is part of the current Queen’s speech cycle and we need to finish that work.

Next week, the Tories will face their first big electoral test since failing to deliver Brexit on time. On Thursday, the local elections take place – with 9,000 seats up for grabs. While the focus in recent weeks has been on the European elections next month – which will see Nigel Farage's Brexit party and the pro-EU Change UK field candidates – these votes ought to give a hint of how deep the hole the Tories find themselves in really is. With Labour consistently leading in recent polls, the Tories are predicted to lose seats next week. However, owing to the timing of the election, there wasn't time for the Brexit Party to field candidates.

Rory Stewart has just been appointed international development secretary. Last week, he explained to Katy Balls why he would make a good Prime Minister: Almost nobody in Westminster admits to wanting to be prime minister. Rory Stewart is a cheerful exception. Most leadership hopefuls prefer to plot in dark corners and woo supporters in candlelit bars. The Prisons Minister is happy to sit in the sun in Hyde Park and talk openly about his ambition. It’s a tricky time for this country, he says. ‘In a normal situation I probably wouldn’t want to run.’ One of his friends thinks he’s mad: what’s the matter with just being MP for Penrith and the Borders? Why seek No. 10 now? Isn’t it a completely thankless task?

Another day, another poll predicting the Brexit party will triumph in next month's European elections. This time, it's a Times/YouGov poll which puts Nigel Farage's new party ahead of both Labour and the Tories. The Brexit Party is on 23 per cent, Labour on 22 per cent and the Conservatives on 17 per cent. Meanwhile, Ukip is on 6 per cent. https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118642347984683009 The other striking trend in recent European election polling relates to the pro-EU parties. They are yet to win the public support many predicted – with the newly formed Independent Group (now called Change UK) struggling to create the same impact on the pro-EU side as the Brexit party has on the other end of the political spectrum.

What is the maximum point of danger for the government in the coming months? After Theresa May secured a six month Article 50 extension, many MPs along with the Tory grassroots are irate and calling for her to go. However, it's still not clear how they could force the Prime Minister out before December (when she can once again face a confidence vote by her MPs). Meanwhile, the Brexit deadlock means that the majority of crunch votes result in no decision. Even if May moves to back a permanent customs union it's not clear it will pass the Commons. The answer then could lie in the Queen's speech – and whether or not the government tries to present one.

Following five hours of talks in Brussels that went on into the early hours of Thursday, Theresa May has been granted a second Brexit extension by EU leaders. The EU27 agreed to give the UK a 'flexible' extension until 31 October – also known as Halloween – with a chance to 'take stock' and review the decision (and the behaviour of the UK in that period) in June. This appears to be a fudge which helps both May – who asked for an extension just until the end of June – and Emmanuel Macron, who has spoken publicly against a long extension being taken for granted and raised concerns that the British could try and cause the EU problems in any such period.

As another crunch Brexit week approaches, Theresa May has used a video message to update the public on ‘what’s happening with Brexit’. With the Sunday papers filled with angry Conservative MPs venting about her decision to enter negotiations with Jeremy Corbyn in a bid to break the Brexit deadlock, the Prime Minister uses the address to try and justify her decision. https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1114891046025084931?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Adopting a more casual tone that normal, May says that Parliament has rejected her deal three times and ‘as things stand’ there is little reason to expect MPs to back it on a fourth vote.