Katy Balls

Prime Minister's Questions may have proved a rather dreary affair this week but there was one reply that has become a source of intrigue in Westminster: Boris Johnson on Brexit. When the SNP's Westminster leader Ian Blackford asked the Prime Minister whether he would commit to releasing 'a detailed economic impact assessment of the cost to the UK of his extreme Tory Brexit plans', Johnson sounded more upbeat on the prospects of a deal.Where Johnson has previously taken any opportunity going to stress that no deal is the most likely outcome, he did not today.

It's become a regular refrain to hear that Brexit talks have been extended. Now the same applies to negotiations over the Christmas Covid rule relaxation. After various scientific advisers warned the UK government against going ahead with its planned five day relaxation of the rules (which would see three household permitted to gather together), representatives for the four nations discussed the policy on a call this evening. The result? No decision as of yet. As things stand, there has been no agreed change to the rules. Instead one source on the call tells the BBC:  'There was broad recognition commitment has been made to people and they will expect us to honour it – but there is a need to be stronger and clearer in guidance and messaging'.

Ahead of Boris Johnson's dinner with Ursula von der Leyen, the hope in government had been that the discussion would provide the political intervention required to continue talks and provide momentum. Following a three-hour dinner of steamed turbot and scallops, UK officials have got at least part of their wish. While the mood music remains rather gloomy, the pair have agreed that their negotiating teams will have further discussions in the coming days — before making a call on the state of play on Sunday. However, significant differences remain — a senior No. 10 source used a statement following the meeting to emphasise the obstacles facing the two sides: The PM and VDL had a frank discussion about the significant obstacles which remain in the negotiations.

The mood music on Brexit talks may be rather gloomy but there are signs suggesting progress is still being made. As well as an agreement in principle on all the outstanding issues in the Northern Ireland protocol, a date has been set for Boris Johnson's meeting with Ursula von der Leyen. The Prime Minister will travel to Brussels on Wednesday for dinner with the European Commission president. Is this a crunch meeting? The strong suggestion from the UK side is no. Instead, it's being billed as a 'continuing process' of talks, and the idea of it leading to a firm decision on the shape of a deal – or a decision to go for no deal – is being played down. No.

The UK's chief negotiator David Frost has arrived in Brussels for last-minute talks with the EU's Michel Barnier. After a phone call between Boris Johnson and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen on Saturday failed to break the deadlock, these latest talks are being billed within government as a 'last throw of the dice'. The main differences that remain are on level playing field and fishing. As senior Brexiteers call on Johnson not to blink and cabinet ministers voice their support in the papers for no-deal if the Prime Minister sees it fit, the likelihood of no-deal is viewed to have increased in recent days. Senior government figures on the UK side now just suggest the chance of a deal is around between 50/50.