Jonathan Spyer is a journalist and Middle East analyst. He is director of research at the Middle East Forum and the author of The Transforming Fire: The Rise of the Israel-Islamist Conflict.
The abrupt announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the war between the US, Israel and Iran resolves none of the issues which caused the conflict. Beyond an agreement to cease attacks, the arrangements that will hold during the two-week period appear themselves unclear. Each side in the last hours seemed to commit to different versions
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Unless something shifts profoundly in the current direction of the US war on Iran, the Iranian regime appears set to survive this round of conflict. Survival alone does not represent victory for Tehran. If, however, the fighting ends with the Iranians still in control of the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic balance in the Middle East will
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IDF troops have continued to push further into southern Lebanon this week, encountering determined but not particularly effectual resistance from Hezbollah. But while the Iranian proxy group appears unable to prevent the movement of the IDF on the ground in Lebanon, it is succeeding in launching large amounts of ordnance at Israel from further north. 600 projectiles were
Israel’s current war on two fronts shows few signs of wrapping up any time soon. In Lebanon, the indications are that the IDF is looking to establish an expanded buffer zone north of the border, with the intention of holding it for as long as the government in Beirut fails to fulfil its pledge to
The killing of the Iranian senior security official Ali Larijani this week is the most significant ‘targeted assassination’ undertaken since Israel’s killing (in cooperation with the US) of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on the opening day of the war. These two very high-level hits have been accompanied by a long list of killings of less
Israel launched a limited ground operation in southern Lebanon this week, intended to expand the de facto buffer zone which it has maintained along the border since the ceasefire of November 2024. Following a year of fighting at that time, Israel held control of five positions on the Lebanese side of the border. In response to
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The US and Israel rapidly established air superiority over Iran in the first days of the war now under way in the Middle East. Regimes, however, cannot be destroyed from the air. President Trump clearly has no intention of committing a large ground force to Iran. If Washington and Jerusalem are serious in their stated
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As of now, it is possible to draw a number of immediate conclusions from the war currently under way between the alliance of the United States and Israel, and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Firstly, the range and nature of US and Israeli targeting indicates that a determined attempt to destroy the 47 year old
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With diplomatic talks between the US and Iran set to take place in Muscat, Oman, today, the prospects for de-escalation between the two countries appear slim to non-existent. Teheran is clear that it is prepared to discuss only its nuclear programme and has so far refused the White House’s demands to put its ballistic missile
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As Syrian government forces advance into the formerly Kurdish controlled north east of the country, the issue of future arrangements at the camps holding Isis members and their families has become a matter of increasing urgency. This issue has two levels – one more immediate, the other more structural and long term. The first level is concerned
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The near-total internet blackout imposed by the regime in Iran has now continued for nearly a week. Behind the veiled effort to cut the country off from the world, sufficient evidence has emerged to establish a clear picture of what the authorities are attempting. In a move wearyingly familiar to all observers of the contemporary Middle
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Israeli aircraft struck targets in Lebanon on Monday. Hezbollah and Hamas military infrastructure was targeted in the Hezbollah heartland of the Beka’a, and in Hatta and Aanan villages in the south of the country, according to a Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman. The Israeli strikes came days after the expiry of the 31 December deadline
The killing of Lebanese Hezbollah military chief Haytham Ali Tababtabai by Israel this week reflects how much the balance of power between Jerusalem and the Iran-backed Shia Islamist group has shifted since the year-long war between the two in 2023 and 2024. Yet, paradoxically, Tabatabai’s killing also shows that nothing has been finally settled between
Indications that the Islamic State (Isis) has begun to employ artificial intelligence in its efforts to recruit new fighters should come as no surprise. At the height of its power a decade ago, Isis was characterised by its combination of having mastered the latest methods of communication with an ideology and praxis that seemed to
As the Gaza ceasefire struggles into its second month, a significant difference between the position of Israel and that of its chief ally, the United States, on the way forward is emerging. This difference reflects broader gaps in perception in Jerusalem and Washington regarding the nature and motivations of the current forces engaged in the
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In the latest blow to the beleaguered Gaza ceasefire, Israeli aircraft this week struck targets in Gaza City after Hamas carried out an attack using rocket-propelled grenades and sniper fire on IDF soldiers in the Rafah area. One Israeli reserve soldier was killed in the Hamas attack. The exchanges of fire took place amid continued Hamas
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Today marks two years of Israel’s Gaza war. The current conflict is perhaps now close to conclusion, depending on the negotiations in Egypt over President Trump’s peace plan. It is already the longest war that the Jewish state has fought since its establishment in 1948. It isn’t the bloodiest conflict Israel has been involved in, though
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Israel’s operation to conquer Gaza city is now entering its third day. Two IDF divisions are engaged on the ground. These are Division 98, which is the IDF’s airborne formation, and Division 162, a mechanised unit. An additional division, the 36th, is set to join the fighting in the coming days. As of now, Israeli
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The sirens began at about 5 am. A Houthi ballistic missile was on its way, over Jerusalem, in the direction of the coastal plain. After half a minute or so, I began to hear the familiar sound of doors scraping and muffled voices, as people made their way to the shelter. It has become
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Israel’s security cabinet yesterday approved the Israel Defense Force’s plans for a major operation into Gaza City. The cabinet decision comes after the mobilisation of 60,000 IDF reservists over the past week. Israeli forces are already operating on the outskirts of the city. Should the operation commence, it appears set to bring five Israeli divisions into areas
