Israel’s current war on two fronts shows few signs of wrapping up any time soon. In Lebanon, the indications are that the IDF is looking to establish an expanded buffer zone north of the border, with the intention of holding it for as long as the government in Beirut fails to fulfil its pledge to disarm Hezbollah. In Iran, meanwhile, Israeli air attacks are continuing daily, even as Tehran’s missiles and drones continue to target Israel’s centres of civilian population.
This year is an election year in Israel, with polls required by law to take place by October. So what impact, if any, are the conflicts having on the political debate inside Israel? Are they likely to decide the future political prospects of Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and if so, in what direction?
It should firstly be noted that Israeli public support for both campaigns remains high. Israelis do not need convincing regarding the nature of the Iranian regime’s intentions towards them. Iran has stood behind the Islamist militias that have formed Israel’s most visible and kinetic enemy now for the last four decades. Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, its missile capacities and its long war intended to end in the demise of the Jewish state are not matters of partisan dispute.
The good news for Netanyahu is the public remains largely united behind him as a war leader
Support for the war currently stands at over 90 per cent in the most recent Israeli opinion surveys. Concerns regarding the clarity of Israel’s war aims and the seemingly open-ended nature of the campaigns are raised with increasing frequency by pundits on the main TV channels. But these sentiments have not yet begun to eat into the general consensus regarding the war itself.
Some of the communities hard hit by Iranian missile attacks in both Israel’s north and south are places of traditional and hardcore support for Netanyahu’s Likud party – places such as Kiryat Shmonah and Dimona. But the Iranian missiles are producing a rally round the flag affect.
Interestingly, however, the near unanimity in public sentiment regarding the war does not appear to be leading to a bounce in support for the current government, or for the Prime Minister. Netanyahu’s standing as a war leader is solid. But as of now, it is not enabling him to chip away at support for the rival political camp. Rather, Israeli society remains deeply divided on a number of key matters, with the national unity on the issue of Iran not serving to lessen or blur these divisions.
It’s clear that among his core supporters, Netanyahu’s standing remains rock-solid and fervent. The flavour of this is perhaps summed up in a remark by Dimona Likud mayor Benny Biton following the Iranian missile attacks on his city last week. Biton, speaking to the pro-government Channel 14, noted that in a kindergarten damaged by missile fire, two pictures remained unharmed: one of Netanyahu and another of the Baba Sali, a revered Moroccan Jewish rabbi. ‘You want to talk about miracles?’ Biton said to the reporter.
The clip of mayor Biton’s interview, interestingly, was widely disseminated by both supporters and opponents of Netanyahu. The differing motivations for those sharing the clip neatly encapsulate the deep divide in the sentiments of Israelis regarding their prime minister. Opponents of the current government drew attention to Biton’s remarks since they seemed to encapsulate and include all the elements that most infuriate them regarding Netanyahu’s continued standing among his public.
There was the apparent desire to place Netanyahu’s standing and wellbeing at the centre of an interview about the widespread destruction of public facilities in a major town. There was the near mystical belief in the Prime Minister’s capacities. There was an injection of traditional religious fervor, with the additional reference to the rabbi. And, always present in Israeli debates though rarely referenced openly, there were the communal markers: Biton is a quintessentially Moroccan Jewish name, the Baba Sali an iconic Moroccan Jewish figure. Netanyahu’s and Likud’s traditional base contains a preponderance of voters from this background.
So Netanyahu’s opponents disseminated the clip of Biton, which captured everything which infuriates and concerns them about the Prime Minister. Supporters of Netanyahu, meanwhile, also took delight in amplifying the Biton interview. Partly because they are aware that these elements are what annoy their opponents and hence enjoy celebrating them, and partly out of agreement with the mayor’s sentiments.
This small episode is an illustration of the extent to which wartime unity is not serving in Israel to resolve deeper divides. The good news for Netanyahu is the public remains largely united behind him as a war leader. The bad news is that there has been no wartime boost in his political fortunes. Were elections to be held now, the polls suggest, Netanyahu’s bloc would struggle to form a government. The picture is not straightforward. The Prime Minister’s party has experienced a remarkable recovery in its fortunes over the last two years, helped not least by the divided and fractious nature of Israel’s opposition. The latest polls suggest that were elections held tomorrow, Likud would emerge as the largest single party, with 28 seats in the 120 member Knesset (parliament).
But government in Israel is by coalition. And none of the most recent polls find that the bloc of parties available for joining a Netanyahu-led coalition looks set to command over 60 seats, according to current rates of support. Rather, the most optimistic indications suggest support in the upper 50s, with one poll putting the Prime Minister’s bloc at only 51 seats.
None of this appears to portend disaster, or even defeat for Netanyahu and the current government in elections. Polls are not necessarily reliable. The Prime Minister is a veteran campaigner and a supremely shrewd politician, as even his opponents would concede. But it does mean that Netanyahu has little obvious motivation to bring the elections forward. At present, at least, the aura of a war leader does not appear to confer on him any political advantage.
Perhaps if the campaigns under way were to be brought to a successful conclusion, this might change. But at present, that doesn’t seem imminent on either front. As of now, it therefore seems most likely that elections will take place in the autumn. The Prime Minister will be hoping that he has concrete and lasting achievements on both fronts to present the public by that time. This remains to be seen.
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