Isabel Hardman

Does Boris Johnson want an election or does he not want an election? He managed to make both claims this afternoon at Prime Minister's Questions, accusing Jeremy Corbyn of being a 'chlorinated chicken' for not wanting an election, while also continuing to insist that he didn't want one either. He then – apparently accidentally – told the Chamber that he did want an election. The whole effect was rather chaotic, and Johnson's demeanour wasn't particularly prime ministerial. He even said 's***' in the Chamber, which might have been designed to get all the attention in a session where Corbyn unusually had the upper hand. When someone takes on the highest office, their stature often appears to grow a little.

The Tory rebels on tonight's motion are in the process of losing the party whip. There were many more than the whips had expected, but this may well be seen by those around Boris Johnson as being a way of getting rid of the sort of MPs who would always be a thorn in the Prime Minister's flesh. There is little point in having an election to get a majority if that majority turns out to be hollow, with a large group of backbenchers who won't actually back the government on the key issue of the day. All this might be true, but the Conservative party tonight is in a state of shock.

There will be a general election on 14 October if MPs defeat the government tomorrow on no-deal Brexit legislation. Number 10 will publish a motion tomorrow which says that if MPs do take control of the Order Paper and pass legislation for an extension to the Brexit deadline, there will be a general election. Senior government sources have just briefed that they do not want an election, but that this motion will show MPs that they are voting for one if they back the legislation. The sentiments offered at this bullish briefing were much stronger than the ones given by Johnson. The official said: 'If you're an MP, you don't get to cancel Brexit in this way.' He also argued that Tory MPs who back the legislation will merely be handing control of the Brexit negotiations to Jeremy Corbyn.

What is going to happen next week in parliament? Most anti-no-deal rebels see it as their last opportunity to block Britain leaving the European Union without a deal, but what they haven't yet agreed on is how best to do it. There are a number of likely scenarios, some of which intertwine with one another, and to show how chaotic the next few days are likely to be, I've drawn up a flowchart of how things might pan out (you can click on the image to view a larger version of the chaos): The most likely parliamentary route is through an emergency debate under Standing Order 24, which the rebels hope they can use to seize control of the order paper. But that route alone is fraught with difficulty.

We know that the Conservatives are gearing up for an election in the next few months. Their official line is that they don't want one, largely because it will appear better if they are apparently pushed into a poll, but that doesn't mean that preparations aren't well underway. One of the main benefits of proroguing parliament is that it allows the Tories to produce an election manifesto before there is an election, using the Queen's Speech. In today's Guardian, I've written about what's going to be in that manifesto/Queen's Speech: the focus will be on education and crime.

So what now for the opponents of no deal? Boris Johnson has dramatically called their bluff, and as Mr Steerpike reports, not all of them are taking this particularly well. Both proponents and opponents of Britain leaving without a deal are engaged in a political wrestling match, with all the theatrics that entails. Both are working out which parliamentary mechanisms will suit them best. Both are also accusing the other of blocking democracy, pretending not to notice the similarities in their tactics. Neither will admit that the other side has a right to do what it has chosen to, instead preferring to call it a 'constitutional outrage'. The problem for those trying to stop no-deal is that their team isn't working as well as Boris Johnson's.

Sajid Javid has this afternoon cancelled a speech he was due to give tomorrow, and brought forward the one-year spending review to early September. It was due to take place later in the autumn. A statement from the Treasury said 'the forthcoming Spending Round will instead be brought forward in early September and will cover the themes and priorities he was due to outline'. This isn't a surprise for any of those in government who had been working on the spending review. Secretaries of State have been returning to Whitehall today, ready for meetings with the Treasury this week about their spending envelopes.

Is Boris Johnson more likely to get a Brexit deal after his meetings with Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron? The Prime Minister today tried to dampen hopes, saying that while the 'mood music' had been 'very good' during his meetings with the two leaders this week, it was still going to be hard to persuade the EU to give way. Speaking during a visit to Devon, Johnson said: 'This is not going to be a cinch, this is not going to be easy. We will have to work very hard to get this thing done.' Much of the week has been spent trying to work out what various comments and bits of body language really mean. Was Johnson celebrating successful talks or just having a stretch when he arrived back in Downing Street after his meetings?

Why would French government officials brief that they think it most likely Britain will leave the European Union without a deal? Boris Johnson hasn't even made it as far as his meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, and is only just being welcomed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel. So why brief that out now, before the leaders have even spoken? The comments appear to be part of the briefing war between European leaders and the British government, with neither side wanting to take the blame for any fallout from a no-deal Brexit.

The stand-off between Downing Street and the European Union over Boris Johnson's latest proposal for the backstop boils down to a disagreement over whether the British government really cares about getting a Brexit deal at all. When Donald Tusk rejected Johnson's plan today, he all but accused him of being set on a no-deal exit, saying: 'The backstop is an insurance to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland unless and until an alternative is found. Those against the backstop and not proposing realistic alternatives in fact support re-establishing a border. Even if they do not admit it.

On the surface, Jeremy Corbyn's pitch to become caretaker prime minister of a government of national unity after overthrowing Boris Johnson looks like a messy failure. The Liberal Democrats have said they won't back him, two of the Tories who he wrote to have backed away too, and the Independent Group for Change (which he didn't write to) have said this evening that they will 'not support nor facilitate any government led by Jeremy Corbyn'. Instead, everyone is talking about the possibility of a government led by Ken Clarke. The former Tory chancellor today said he wouldn't object to taking over if it was 'the only way' to stop a no-deal Brexit.