Isabel Hardman is assistant editor of The Spectator and author of Why We Get the Wrong Politicians. She also presents Radio 4’s Week in Westminster.
Rotherham is only a few miles down the road from the Ukip conference, and looms large in the hall. Every speaker so far has managed to mention the scandal of 1,400 children abused and ignored by the authorities. Jane Collins' speech has riled Labour so much that Labour has accused her of being defamatory, while Nigel Farage devoted a furious section of his speech to accusing the party.
Not long after John Bickley had appealed to Ukip delegates to help him win in Heywood and Middleton, Nigel Farage conceded that it wasn't going to happen. In a briefing with journalists after his speech (the Ukip leader is very generous with his time for the London-based media establishment, far more so than any other leading politician), he said: 'I think it's too big a mountain to climb in that short a space of time, and I think the Labour party is saying that because they've got a very divided local party, they're not happy with the candidate, they can't get anyone out to canvass, and when they put the coaches on to go from the hall in Manchester to the office in Heywood, only 23 people got on one... they were expecting hundreds.
What voters want is a renationalisation of the railways, policies that hit the rich harder, a mansion tax and definitely not an abolition of inheritance tax. This isn't a belated write-up of one of the further left fringes of the Labour conference in Manchester: it's the ideas of a group of Ukippers who gathered this lunchtime in Doncaster to discuss how to attract Labour voters. Led by Ian Dexter, a party member who has no formal role in writing the manifesto but who was given the official 'How to win the crucial Labour Vote' lunchtime slot, the fringe sounded at times more like a Socialist Workers' Party meeting than an apparently libertarian party trying to entice Labour voters over. This included spending more on healthcare, housing , manufacturing, and higher wages, he argued.
Douglas Carswell has just finished speaking at the Ukip conference and his fellow by-election contender John Bickley, who is standing in Heywood and Middleton on the same day, has just given a short address too. He told the hall that 'the dam is ready to burst' and asked for members to pop in before they went to Clacton. Labour sources were last week claiming that their chance of holding onto the seat was looking shaky, which was read by many as an attempt to get their activists and MPs to take the fight seriously. But I hear that there is a fierce debate going on in Ukip between those who want to divert resources from Clacton to Heywood in order to give the fight a real go, and those who think it best to focus efforts on Carswell's seat.
Politicians always speak about the NHS with passion. It is our national religion. So today Louise Bours, Ukip's health spokeswoman, adopted the demeanour of a Pentecostal preacher, addressing her party conference at such a high volume that MPs gathered in the House of Commons chamber could probably hear her as she pledged to work with Unite to oppose the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. She said she had received a letter from Len McCluskey outlining his concerns about the agreement, and replied: 'UKIP WILL FIGHT ALONGSIDE YOU TO ENSURE THE NHS IS EXCLUDED FROM TTIP.' This was an explicit attempt to quash Labour attacks on Ukip as a party that wants to restrict access to the health service.
Quite naturally, the mood in the hall at the Ukip conference in Doncaster is far more upbeat than anything Labour could muster. This is an insurgent party on the brink of getting its own MP and that is spooking the Conservatives no end. So the party with a realistic chance of taking power next May seems depressed, while this party is full of beans. A series of speeches from policy spokespeople was intended to show that Ukip doesn't just have one face representing it. This year's conference is intended to show that Nigel Farage's party really has grown up and has grown far beyond just his leadership.
Ukip's party conference is underway in Doncaster. The party is hoping for an event that runs more smoothly than last year, where Nigel Farage sacked Godfrey Bloom for hitting a journalist and calling women 'sluts'. It certainly has more in its favour this time around, with Tory defector Douglas Carswell to address the conference ahead of what looks like a victory in the Clacton by-election. But there are also rumours that two more Conservative MPs are about to defect. Adam Holloway's name was winging round the lobby today, but he says he won't be going anywhere because he is terrified of the prospect of a Labour government. He said: 'I'd much rather be in coalition with Ukip than the Lib Dems but I'm not going to defect.
Today's Cabinet meeting agreed the following motion on attacking Isis in Iraq.
The 1922 Committee meets at 2pm today, and William Hague will address it. The meeting was originally arranged to discuss the post-referendum settlement for Scotland and England, and English votes for English laws, but Iraq may well dominate the session given tomorrow's recall. Those MPs who weren't sufficiently fortunate or troublesome to have been invited to the Chequers summit on the English settlement on Monday will get an update and a chance to pitch their view in. The party seems, by and large, pretty happy with the way Number 10 has handled this matter so quickly, and the amount of contact they have had from the whips. But the peace may yet turn into trouble in the Commons.
Number 10 has just confirmed that Parliament will be recalled on Friday to vote on a motion authorising British involvement in air strikes against Isis in Iraq. A spokesman said: 'The Speaker has agreed to the Prime Minister's request to recall Parliament this Friday to debate the UK's response to the request from the Iraqi government for air strikes to support operations against Isil in Iraq. 'The Commons will meet on Friday for a debate on a substantive motion. The Prime Minister will open the debate and the Deputy Prime Minister will close the debate. The Prime Minister has called a meeting of the Cabinet tomorrow at 1pm.
There are many reasons why Labour conference felt flat this year, and many of them are out of the party's control. It cannot help that its MPs and a number of its delegates are tired after an energetic Scottish campaign. It cannot help that the Scottish campaign saw a level of engagement in politics that cannot be replicated, save by another vote with a clear question and clear implications, and that would always have contrasted badly with the Labour conference. It cannot help that the referendum took place just days before the conference began, and that therefore it was impossible to get the same sort of coverage you'd expect in the run-up to your conference in the press.
Labour conference has now finished. Today was better than the others, but the delegates still struggled to show their enthusiasm when Ed Miliband reappeared on the stage this afternoon. Three people gave him a standing ovation. The mood at this conference really has been flat. At a fringe run by the Fabian Society last night, I was mildly perturbed as a Spectator journalist to be told by one member that I and other members of the panel were probably being too optimistic about the party's prospects of getting into government. There have been a few notable moments when delegates seemed quite emotional, including during the powerful speech from 91-year old Harry Smith, which was the warm-up for Andy Burnham's own well-received speech. But those moments have not carried the conference.
Yvette Cooper today reiterated her pledge to scrap the Tories' net migration target as she addressed the Labour conference. Her speech contained the obligatory admission about their party's past mistakes that Cooper and her colleagues must repeat whenever they talk about immigration, but the Shadow Home Secretary also suggested that the current government is still getting things wrong. She said: 'Yes, Labour got things wrong on immigration – on transitional controls for Eastern Europe, on the impact of jobs, but look at what this government is doing now. David Cameron promised "no ifs no buts" he would meet his net migration target. Theresa May boasted last year that her progress on her target was "an achievement to be proud of".
MPs are still waiting to hear confirmation that Parliament is being recalled on Friday, although many have been told to expect a sitting to discuss military intervention against Isis. The chances are that it won't be announced until the Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has made a formal appeal for British involvement, and the Labour conference has finished, so that this cannot in any way be interpreted as a bit of politicking from a Conservative party keen to sabotage the Opposition's gathering. The whips have been phoning MPs this morning asking about their support for strikes on Isis in Iraq. But some have also been asking about attacks in Syria, too, which has led MPs to believe that the question before them on Friday will be about action in both countries.
Andy Burnham has just delivered the best speech from a Labour MP at conference. Taken from the autocue, it was emotive, stirring, tribal, and just what delegates needed. It seemed to have taken rather a number of lessons from the 'Yes' campaign in Scotland in that it was relentlessly negative about the threat that the Tories pose to the NHS and framed not voting Labour as an active threat to the health service. Burnham got a number of standing ovations - the first was just a few words into his speech - and had the audience captivated throughout. Why? He spoke with a passion and a sense of purpose.
Why does Ed Miliband think memorising a speech is more important than convincing voters that Labour really can be tough on the deficit? It wasn't just his performance yesterday, in which the Labour leader failed to communicate key passages on the economy and immigration (James has them here), but the lack of candour from anyone on the stage about the scale of the challenge facing a Labour government if it came to power next year. Ed Balls said Labour was facing difficult, unpopular decisions, but then undermined his bad cop routine rather by announcing two relatively uncontroversial cuts. On the Today programme Miliband tried to argue that his speech had still contained points on the economy, but that one of the 'perils' of memorising speeches was that you might leave bits out.
Parliament is expected to be recalled on Friday to discuss British military intervention against Isis. David Cameron will hold talks with his Iraqi counterpart today, with Haider al-Abadi expected to make a formal request that Britain join the military action. Labour is staying supportively non-committal at the moment, with Ed Miliband saying again on the Today programme that Labour hadn't yet been approached, but that it would consider anything the government put on the table: 'I think the situation in Syria is somewhat different, in that’s it’s not a democratic state, we’ve got the Assad regime in Syria, we called yesterday, we supported the American action, but we called yesterday for a UN security council resolution.
Whether or not Ed Miliband's speech was a success depends on what sort of aim he had for it: heave Labour over the general election line using his party base, or reach out to wavering swing voters by arguing that Labour has the ability to govern in the challenging circumstances that it finds itself in after the 2015 election, that it has a vision for aspirational voters, and that it really understands why its working class voters deserted it in 2010. listen to ‘Ed Miliband's speech: podcast special’ on audioBoom Let's address the second aim first. It was not a good speech. It did not have a sufficiently well-crafted message. It did not contain stories that were sufficiently compelling.
Ed Miliband, due to address Labour conference shortly, is to announce a £2.5 billion NHS Time to Care Fund for thousands more nurses, doctors, caseworkers and midwives. Time to Care will get its money from a £1.1 billion clampdown on tax avoidance, a mansion tax on properties worth more than £2 million and US-style fees for tobacco firms. As James said earlier, this is crude but effective Labour politics and appeals to areas where they are strongest. It appeals to the party's base by bashing the rich and big business, while appealing to the wider electorate on an issue they care about and that annoys them. For many people who feel frustrated that it takes so long to get a GP appointment, it is a tangible pledge.
What will happen now that the US has launched airstrikes against Isis in Syria? Even though there is no requirement for Parliament to be consulted, it is very difficult for the British government to join without some form of debate and vote in the House of Commons. And this means that a recall of Parliament before it is scheduled to sit on 13 October. The end of this week is most likely, but there remains a debate at the top of the Tory party as to whether David Cameron could win a vote supporting British action. This is surprising, given so many of those who opposed action against Assad last year have publicly said they would support it, and Labour has made many more supportive noises about its own stance.