Fraser Nelson

As the Blair memo shows us today, the grinning charlatan had the right idea. He stayed too long, and as a result his own popularity was destroyed. But he knew how to fight the Tories. If his “trust schools” idea had not been torn to shreds by Labour rebels (who were directed by Brown), Michael Gove would not have an education policy. If Blair had kept his nerve with welfare reform in 1998, then he would have used the boom years to do what Chris Grayling will do in office – and the Tories would not have a welfare policy. The Blairites knew (after 2001) that the country wants more power in their own hands (over health, education and, yes, tax) not a Great Helsman to lead them into a new direction.

Like the Road Runner’s Coyote speeding off a cliff, it will take some time before Britain looks down and realises that Brown has led us over an economic precipice. The CPI target of 2% inflation will be a joke – from now until about 2010. We’re likely to hit 5% by Christmas and stay there for a good chunk of next year. It will, quite literally, be the biggest overshoot anywhere in the world now – not just currently, but in the history of inflation targeting outside of Africa. Even the Bank of England is coming to terms with this, so we can forget a rate cut next week. Citibank thinks we’re already in recession and forecasts growth of 0.3% next year and 0.9% in 2010. Yes, you read both of those figures correctly.

David Miliband has now gone so far he can't go back. But could this be his "botched election" moment? His appearance on the Jeremy Vine show went well, inasmuch as the callers lined up to denounce Brown and he seemed to engage with them well. His defence of Brown was again so weak that it would be read as a provocation. Brown was a good chancellor and has given us values we can go forward with, says Miliband, with a valedictory tone, as if to say, "go now, and go gracefully". Brown must either destroy him, isolate him or yield to him. But Miliband cannot pretend nothing has happened. He has started a war with the most ferocious street fighter in Westminster. He must either finish this fight, or be destroyed. I am told his article was intended to signal "come and get me, Labour party".

I just bumped into John Mason, the glorious victor of Glasgow East, nemesis of the once mighty Scottish Labour and trigger of Gordon Brown's leadership woes. He hardly said a word, being shown around with the demeanor of an awe-struck schoolboy who's escaped from the pages of the Beano. I have said before that he was, in my view, the weakest of all the candidates, which just underlines the power of the SNP machine. Scottish Labour remains decapitated, without purpose or direction. Whilst the Scottish Tories are wrapped up in cutting deals with the SNP. Unionist parties in Scotland have never been weaker. Should England care? Yes, and not for any love of the union.

I wonder what Gordon Brown thought of the Kennedyesque overtones which Obama wanted to put on his European visit. Kennedy is Brown’s hero, of course, and he nicks hugs amounts from his speeches. As Brown paraded Obama in No10’s back yard yesterday for the cameras, waving his arms to show he was imparting his wisdom not vice versa, he will have been praying that a little of Obama’s stardust will have worn off on him. It’s a dangerous tactic for a British Prime Minister, though. In my News of the World column today I reprint a picture of the last time a British Prime Minister tried that: Macmillan with JFK himself in 1961.