Fraser Nelson

As Gustav fades, the first real night of the real convention has started. The signs, funny hats, even hesitant dancing (to Johnny B Goode). Guests were there: George HW Bush, his wife and Cindy McCain, to whom the cameras kept going back. She sat there looking like she’s escaped from a Stepford Wives remake. She will, I suspect, compare badly to Michelle Obama (whom I’m completely sold on). First up tonight was Laura Bush, who was a smash hit. One forgets what an asset she’s been for him – pretty, graceful and not Teresa Heinz Kerry. She listed his greatest hits -  “The most important education reform in a generation” and the highest SAT results for minorities and 2m being treated for Aids in Africa.

I’m in Denver airport waiting for what a Republican friend in St Paul has just informed me is likely to be a one- or two-day convention. Even if Hurricane Gustav does not cause the destruction expected, it may yet blow away McCain’s chance of victory. The Republicans are acutely aware that this brings back memory of the Bush administration’s disastrous handling of Hurricane Katrina. Bush and Cheney are the last people the Republicans want on stage, and they have both pulled out. McCain knows he will be judged more by his response to Gustav than what he says in the speech, so even he may not turn up – there’s talk of him speaking by videoconference. FEMA has released its estimate of what’s in the way of the Gustav, now 400 miles away from New Orelans: 5.

When John Kerry got up there to speak with his insomnia-curing drawl, I thought I’d watch the old loser just from a sense of schadenfreude. But then his attack came out. It was interesting, potent and it had Michelle Obama rising to her feet. In fact, it struck me as the punchiest, hardest-hitting speech of the convention. Who would have thought that dull old Kerry had it in him? He found a nice way of dealing with the Democrats key problem. McCain is – in Clinton’s own words – “a good man who loves his country.” But Kerry separated “Senator McCain” from “Candidate McCain” saying he’d mutated into a tool of the Republican party.

James and I have now installed ourselves in a bit of space at the Pepsi Centre in Denver. The stage is all set up, Obamabilia is being sold in the halls and musicians are warming up for the opening night of the Democratic National Convention. Tonight is, essentially, Michelle Obama’s coming-out party, a speech from the woman everyone has heard of but hardly anyone has heard from. The narrative about her is already being spun furiously: a working class Chicago girl unlike the super-rich Cindy McCain, A headstrong woman and devoted wife, as she puts it “I’m married to this guy Barack and that’s about it.” The spouse matters in American politics – think of the votes Laura Bush hauled in. Mrs Obama has to deliver.

I’d like to quickly scotch this myth that softening in average fixed-rate mortgage rates means it’s now easier for first-time buyers to buy houses, which I hear the Treasury is now punting in the hope that journalists start to repeat it. Moneyfacts has joined the number of dotcom setups getting great publicity by saying the average fixed rate is 6.59%, only just above 6.56% it was in August 2007. This has allowed headlines such as “Mortgage rates back at 2007 levels”. But one must treat these figures with care. First, consider the deposit now required. The Council of Mortgage Lenders says the average laid down by first-time buyers soared to £17,300 in June – half the average first time buyer (FTB) salary. In August 2007 it was just £13,160.