Fraser Nelson

The bottom has again dropped out of the Labour party. A BPix/Mail on Sunday poll shows its popularity has slumped to its lowest level since polling began in 1943. Its 23 percent, just below the 23.5 percent it polled at Michael Foot's nadir. Meanwhile a YouGov/Sunday Times poll puts Labour down 7 to 27, yielding a 16 point lead to the Tories who are on 43 percent. My personal favourite: a healthy majority, 61 percent, say Brown has “completely lost authority”. And yes we have twelve fun-filled months of this pantomime to go.

The law of unintended consequences is one that Westminster unfailingly passes, and there are signs that the massive Quantitative Easing programme is making it harder for companies to raise money, because the government is flooding the market with its own IOU notes. The Bank of England today confirmed that less than 1% of the £44.5bn it has printed has gone to buy company loans – it had indicated that as much as a third of the £150bn pool would go to companies. Instead, it is a mechanism to help the government issue the £240bn of gilts it’s issuing this year. Why is this important?

For all its faults, the European Commission is quite good at polling and economic analysis. And its diagnosis for the UK is even worse than some of the papers write up this morning. For CoffeeHousers who are sitting down, here are a few of its most depressing points. I added the OECD, which includes other developed countries which lack the EU’s problems: Brown has reached his goal, and this (for the left) is not to be sniffed at: state spending will be more than half of UK GDP. But he could not do this by increasing government revenue, as taxpayers would not abide it. So he has used borrowing instead, leaving the UK with a fiscal crisis to resolve. From the Commission’s report: And, yes, this does mean the last time Britain balanced its budget was 2000/01.

"Where there is discord, may we bring harmony. Where there is error, may we bring truth. Where there is doubt, may we bring faith. And where there is despair, may we bring hope." It was 30 years ago today that The Lady said these words at 10 Downing St. It's not quite the Prayer of St Francis of Assisi - the first line appears to have been a little improvisation. And it is the one most often quoted because it strikes such a contrast with what was to come. They are often quoted because they strike such a contrast with what was to come. She had, in fact, come to turn Britain upside down, and to do so at a frenetic pace. When speaking to the Church of Scotland nine years later, she gave a version a little closer to her gospel. The Old Testament prophets, she said: "...

Enter the iron chipmunk. Hazel Blears has given it straight to Gordon Brown in the Observer, including the immortal line "YouTube if you want to" - this lady is not for tubing. She's for campaigning, operating on a wavelength broadly approaching that of the British public. This shook up No10 which forced her to put out words of loyalty which (bless her) had all the sincerity of a hostage statement. "I want to make it clear that the Prime Minister has my 100 percent support," etc. So, what's cooking? With Charles Clarke sending a coded message that Ed Balls should quit, and Kate Hooey sounding off, all this can be mistaken for a coordinated attack. But if it were, Hazel would wait until after the June elections and do in in tandem with other higher-ranking rebels.

We baristas at CoffeeHouse aim to serve all our customers, so I’m happy that I have made John Rentoul remind himself that he is “left wing really.” And why? Because in my (admittedly grumpy) write-up of Cameron’s press conference yesterday I said that using words like “Laffer” to describe the pernicious effects of high tax rates makes it sound like an obscure argument. JFK was cutting taxes for the rich and arguing that a “rising tide lifts all boats” well before Art Laffer doodled on a cocktail napkin. And it’s an ancient idea, I said, which you can trace back to the book of Deuteronomy if you want.. Uh-oh. My mistake.

There were cold bacon sandwiches on offer at Cameron’s press conference this morning, arranged for 9.15am to get it in before Gordon Brown’s presser with the Iraqi PM (no shoes thrown at Brown), and to time it with the passing of the Coldstream Guards band playing outside. Well, the latter was perhaps a coincidence. But it did make it all seem like one of those IDS-era party conferences where they had Nimrod playing in the background. Anyway, my highlights: 1) SPENDING "We’ve said for some time ‘you’re spending too much in 2009, you’re spending too much in 2010’." It’s hilarious hearing Cameron claim to have been some kind of prophet in the wilderness, wailing about cuts.