Fraser Nelson

No one does it better than The Prince. So I have written up Lord Mandelson's comments on Simon Mayo's R5 programme (which I mentioned earlier) as they set a template for all ministers who will try to get through the next five days. They represent a truly audacious attempt to make the following four points...   a) All this is nothing to do with Brown's leadership crisis - it's just the expenses crisis, which understandably focuses on the government. b) Poor wee Hazel, poor wee Jacqui, they couldn't cope with the pressure. c) And did I remember to hint that their expenses were a bit suspect? d) Talk about Brown's leadership is gossip - just the wicked, shallow media focusing on personalities. So, now, over to The Prince... 1. Everybody hurts.

I suspect Jacqui Smith has done a Ruth Kelly - she knew she was going, so why wait to be knifed? Why not go at a time of her choosing, and take control? She doesn't need to make an announcement. She just needed to let it be known that she will resign, and sooner or later it would reach someone like Joey Jones from Sky News, who broke the story.   This gives her a bit of dignity, and will frustrate Gordon Brown who would have liked to announce this himself. The reshuffle is one of the few weapons left in his arsenal - with Labour's poll rating now below room temperature, he is about to lead the party into what will doubtless be its worst-ever defeat. And he'll look more helpless now; given he can't control his own reshuffles in a timely way.

So when will Iran get enough nuclear material for a bomb? In evidence to the Knesset this morning, Israeli military intelligence has suggested this could happen as early as this year. Of course, the Iranians don't (yet) have the right missiles. There was some concern about Russians selling a S300 anti-aircraft missile to China who could sell it to Iran - but when I was in Jerusalem a few weeks ago the officials I spoke to said they think the Kremlin has changed its mind. (Ditto with the sale of MiG31s to Syria). But with the material ready to go, it can only be a matter of time before Iran finds a missile from somewhere. Israel isn't under attack, but it feels like it right now. It's in the midst of a five-day emergency drill called "Turning Point Three", where schools, hospitals etc.

The Dear Leader did Andrew Marr this morning – I’ve just returned from a beautiful day out to watch it online and give it a quick Fisk. Here are my top half dozen points. 1. “To be honest, what I've seen offends my Presbyterian conscience.” Is this the first recorded use of the phrase?  And what do the Presbyterians think about it? 2. “Do you want 10 percent cuts in your education services at a time when young children, teenagers need more education? Do you want 10 percent cuts in your policing at a time when we actually need to give people visible police presence in their communities? Now these are the issues on which we will fight at General Election.” Oh God, what have I done?

Why should Labour keep Gordon Brown as their leader? If Labour come third behind the LibDems at the Euro elections, this question is certain to be raised in public by someone. I hear that the Dear Leader has prepared an answer: green shoots. Seriously. Look, he will say, the economy is on the turn. And when those green shoots come, people will thank him for leading us through the storm. No Brown, no gratitude. So why chuck him out, just when things are on the turn?   This is why today's house price data from Nationwide has political significance: it will buttress Brown's claim that he should stay to take credit for the recovery.

I have the dubious honour of being cited by Ed Balls in a press conference as proof that the Tories are hiding a cuts agenda. I say in the Daily Telegraph that the Tories' plan is for a 10% cut across defence, education, transport and the Home Office. In typical word-twisting fashion, Balls said it “could see 45,000 teachers laid off,” and spoke as if I had uncovered a secret plan in Philip Hammond’s desk. In fact, it is a basic conclusion that can be made by anyone with a calculator and a copy of the Budget. These are not Tory cuts, but Labour cuts. Revealed not by me in the Daily Telegraph, but by Darling in Budget 2009. They equate to 7.6% real terms cuts in departmental spending over three years starting Apr11.

The central deceit behind Budget 2009 – Alistair Darling’s trampoline recovery theory – is steadily crumbling. CoffeeHousers will remember the scam. He pretends that Britain will, from April 2011, enjoy three years of turbo-charged growth averaging 3.5 per cent a year, hence justifying his pre-election splurge. It was, in my view, an extraordinary moment – where the Treasury didn’t even pretend to be operating within the parameters of the possible. I quizzed the Treasury official about it in the post-Budget briefing (full transcript here), saying there is not a single analyst, anywhere, who shares these forecasts. “No one agrees with you” I said. “Well I don’t actually know of any of what you are talking about” he replied.