Alex Massie

In Scotland’s grittier pubs, a simple rule has long applied: no football colours and no talking about politics. With enough drink, talking about either can lead to violence — and pint glasses are expensive to replace. With an ordinary general election, the prohibition is easy to obey. The wrong buggers might well win, but they can easily be removed at the next election. A referendum, however, is different. It’s not just temporary — it’s for life. And like life, it’s unavoidable. Socially, as well as politically, there is no hiding place. The Prime Minister is, it seems, experiencing the referendum effect for himself.

Many moons ago, Charles J Haughey, Taoiseach of the 26 free counties, bestowed a great compliment upon an up-and-coming young Fianna Fail politician. Bertie Ahern, Haughey observed, was the coming force: "He's the man. He's the best, the most skilful, the most devious, and the most cunning of them all." Now, granted, that kind of praise was akin to Jimmy Savile suggesting you have a great future in children's entertainment but the point, nonetheless, was made. Bertie Ahern was a cute hoor who could cute and hoor with the best of them. I often think of Haughey's praise for Ahern at this time of year. Because this is, invariably, the time of year when stocks in George Osborne soar to fresh and improbable heights.

Here we go, here we go, here we [expletive of your choice] go again. Our old friend, the Offensive Behaviour at Football Act is back in the news again courtesy of an article written by its sponsor, Kenny MacAskill MSP. Booting MacAskill from office was one of Nicola Sturgeon's first actions when she succeeded Alex Salmond as First Minister. It remains one of her best. MacAskill, you may recall, has form. It was he who cheerfully admitted that the government in which he served as Justice secretary was happy to 'do the wrong thing' - albeit for 'the right reasons' - since doing the right thing might have distracted attention from the struggle for independence. I wish this aspect of the SNP's record in office were more widely-appreciated but you can't, I suppose, have everything.

Who knew Nicola Sturgeon was a devotee of Saint Augustine? Her message to the SNP conference yesterday was simple: Lord, grant me independence but not yet. And how the people cheered! The mere mention of independence was enough to send the nationalists into a state of millenarian rapture as they imagined the ecstasy to come. Nothing else - not even the ritual pillorying of the hated Tories nor the now equally traditional concern trolling of Scottish Labour - excited Ms Sturgeon's audience. Only the thought and prospect of independence brought them to their feet, a-whoopin' and a-hollerin' like the Highland Light Infantry on a payday night out. But it will not be coming for a while.

The thing about Jeremy Corbyn's supporters is they'd be funny if they weren't so pathetic. Or is it the other way round? I can never remember. Last night something called the #JC4PM Tour rolled in to Edinburgh. Featuring the likes of Jeremy Hardy, Mark Steel, Charlotte Church and sundry other artists who are not necessarily household names in even their own households, this was supposed, I think, to be a Red Wedge for our times. But since they only sold 350 or so tickets for a 2,000 seat theatre it was more of a Red Splinter. Obviously I did not attend myself. But Buzzfeed's estimable Jamie Ross did sacrifice his evening for the greater glory of the revolution and, in the tradition of old media spongeing off new media, his excellent report forms the basis of this analysis.

What does a barrel of schadenfreude cost these days? That's today's starter for ten. The answer, according to the latest Scottish government figures, appears to be about £15bn. That's the difference between spending in Scotland last year and the revenue raised from Scotland. A deficit of 9.7 percent or, for those keeping score, almost twice the UK's deficit. And, boom, there will be some Unionists tempted to sneer Well, that was a nice little case you had for independence, wasn't it? Such a shame something happened to it.  They will have a point, albeit there is something unseemly about appearing to revel in the collapse of an industry - north sea oil - upon which so many Scottish jobs and families depend.

As a general rule politicians should spend less time saying things they do not really believe. However useful such a strategy may be in the short-term it will, sure as eggs be eggs, backfire on you eventually. But there are also occasions when it is a mistake to talk about the things in which you really do believe. This is something Jeremy Corbyn has yet to understand. So there was the gallant Labour leader speaking at a sparsely-attended anti-Trident rally in Trafalgar Square at the weekend, thereby reinforcing many of the back-to-1983 associations that will help ensure he leads the once mighty Labour party to electoral oblivion.

You would think that spending time in America and thereby enjoying a ringside seat as the Republican party leaps off a cliff would give any British conservative cause to give thanks for the Tory party's essential moderation. Not so with dear old Tim Montgomerie, however, who appears to have gone off his rocker and resigned from the party. Now there is something to be said for hacks not being members of any party and in that respect Tim's decision to abandon the Tory ship is a case of better-late-than-never. On the other hand, this is a man who once served as Iain Duncan Smith's chief-of-staff and there is something quixotic about surviving that experience only to abandon ship when the party is actually in government and likely to remain so for the foreseeable future.

Despite what Emma Thompson may say, this 'cake-filled, misery-laden, grey old island' is actually a more than half-decent place to live. Most of the time, anyway. That it remains so is remarkable, given the provocations inflicted upon us by our political overlords. Here are three stories to make you weep. (And as you know, three stories constitute a sodding trend.) First, the Independent reports that the government (in England and Wales) plans to make it illegal for publicly-funded bodies - including councils - to boycott goods produced in areas of the world, or by industries, they deplore.

All Westminster might be agog with the latest shenanigans vis-a-vis the got-to-happen-at-some-point EU referendum but most sentient folk in this blessed land are magnificently uninterested in the matter. Not even this morning's Telegraph splash - 'Attorney General may back Brexit'  - can stir them from their slumber. At best the majors will have asked, over their E&B this morning, 'Who is the Attorney General these days?' North of the border, matters are just as quiet even though another great question remains unsettled. As yet, you see, there is no agreement on the terms of a 'fiscal framework' which will underpin the relationship between the finances of the devolved parliament in Edinburgh and the mother-parliament in Westminster.

Here we go again. According to today's Daily Express, leaving the European Union is the only way to 'save the NHS'. According to the Prime Minister, remaining a member of the european club is the only way to guarantee the United Kingdom's security. I suppose it is too much to hope that everyone, on both sides of this increasingly-wearisome argument, will pipe down and cease being so damn stupid? Of course it is. We will be stuck with more - much more - of this until such time as the bleedin' poll is called and held. This may be the best reason for having the referendum as soon as possible.

Last month I wrote that everyone loves Ruth Davidson but no-one will vote for her. Now a new YouGov poll reports that the Tories are ahead, if only just, of Labour in the race to lose the forthcoming Holyrood election least badly. Twenty percent of Scots say they intend to vote for Davidson's Scottish Conservatives in May and only 19 percent are prepared to back Kezia Dugdale's Labour party. [datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/WvPSD/index.html"] A lesser man than I might think this awkward. Granted, even when doubting the veracity of the much-anticipated, rarely-actually-seen Scottish Tory revival I allowed myself some room for wriggling.

Last week Kezia Dugdale, the leader of the Scottish Labour party, ventured south to the Imperial capital to brief the shadow cabinet on her party's prospects in the forthcoming elections to the Scottish Parliament. Lucky her. According to the New Statesman's George Eaton, Dugdale's presentation was greeted with great enthusiasm. It was, one member of the shadow cabinet declared, 'brilliant' while another said Dugdale had 'blown away' her South British colleagues. Ominously, Eaton reported that 'After loudly applauding her, frontbenchers left vowing to do more to help their colleagues north of the border (at least one shadow cabinet minister will visit each week)'. To which the only sensible response is, Jeez, hasn't Kezia suffered enough already?

Like an old friend you do not actually like very much, the Scottish government's Offensive Behaviour at Football Act will not go away. It is five years since this offensive piece of legislation was passed and time has done nothing to lessen either its absurdity or its offensiveness. To recap for readers who, for doubtless honourable reasons, have not kept up with one of the more extraordinary speech-curbing measures passed by any UK legislature in recent years, the bill's premise is that creating new kinds of thought and speech crime can eliminate thoughts and speech deemed offensive. (Some past reflections on this execrable bill can be found here, here and here.

Honesty and consistency; two qualities everyone agrees to value but that are easily jettisoned as soon as maintaining them proves too inconvenient. It turns out they're not so valuable as all that. So it is with all things Euro-referendum-related. If we are to believe the rival tribunes competing for your affections later this year, negotiating the terms of a British exit from the European Union will either be a doddle or a disaster, with little room for hope in between those twin imposters. Well, perhaps. Sometimes, however, it helps to imagine an alternative but comparable scenario in which, as it happens, you may be less invested. Doing so might make some things clear. Conveniently, we have just such an alternative but comparable example close to hand.