Yougov

Is Jeremy Corbyn’s steaming ahead in the Labour leadership contest? Is he going to win on first preferences alone? The best quantitate answers we have come from two YouGov polls conducted for the Times — one in July and another last week. The first poll put Corbyn 17 points ahead of his nearest rival on first preferences and six points ahead in the final round. In the second poll, Corbyn was 31 points ahead on first preferences and 14 points in the final round. Can these polls be trusted? Given that YouGov, like all the other pollsters, called the general election incorrectly, scepticism is rife in Westminster about any polling.

Could Jeremy Corbyn actually win the Labour leadership race? A new poll from The Times/YouGov suggests that he will. The new poll of eligible voters in the leadership contest — party members, registered supporters and affiliated trade unionists — has Corbyn on track to win in the final round of voting with 53 per cent of the vote, with the current bookies' favourite Andy Burnham trailing six points behind on 47 per cent. The left-wing leadership candidate's lead on first preferences is even more jaw-dropping. YouGov has Corbyn on 43 per cent, compared to Burnham on 26, Yvette Cooper on 20 and Liz Kendall on 11. Based on this, Kendall would be knocked out in the first round and her votes redistributed to other candidates.

The polling stations open in under 10 hours and the final opinion polls are out. As we've seen throughout this campaign, there's not much variance at all, with all of the pollsters putting Labour and the Tories tied — or with a small lead within the margin of error.

How much influence will newspapers have in this election? Less than ever before in print, if circulation figures (above) are anything to go by. Yet paranoia remains. On certain days, newspapers do get excited and act like they're trying to win the election. Today's Sun digs up that infamous picture of Ed Miliband and urges readers to 'Save our bacon', the Telegraph pictures Nicola Sturgeon with the headline 'Nightmare on Downing Street', while the Mirror leads with 'Major fail' on comments by the former Prime Minister on inequality. Meanwhile, the Times and Mail have followed the Independent and Evening Standard in putting their weight behind a Cameron-led government. The truth, of course, is that generally newspapers serve up what they believe their readers want.

Two new polls out today have the Tories ahead. Lord Ashcroft's latest national poll says the Conservatives currently have a six point lead at per cent — up two points from last week — while Labour remains on 30 per cent. Ashcroft has Ukip down slightly to 11 per cent and the Liberal Democrats are on nine per cent. The Guardian/ICM also put the Tories ahead in their new poll today, putting the Conservatives on 35 per cent and Labour on 32 per cent. It's worth noting that both the Ashcroft and ICM polls were conducted by telephone. There are two other polls out today, conducted online, which show the opposite result.  The latest survey from YouGov has Labour two points ahead on 34 per cent, while a new Populus/FT poll has Labour three points ahead on 36 per cent.

The opinion polls almost veered towards a trend today. ComRes/Daily Mail report in their latest poll that the Conservatives are four points ahead on 36 per cent, while Labour is on 32 per cent. Survation/Daily Mirror also put the Tories four points ahead on 33 per cent and Labour on 29 per cent. Alternatively, the latest YouGov/Sun poll has Labour two points ahead on 35 per cent and Tories on 33 per cent. With two weeks to go till polling day, it’s still very tight and no one has a notable lead. While the Conservative lead in the ComRes and Survation polls edges outside of the margin of error, the movements in these polls are still within three points. But one thing to note is the difference in the methods used to poll.

Three new polls out today have put Labour ahead of the Tories. At a time when the Conservatives are firing all guns at the opposition, Labour appear to be gaining some momentum. According to a new Survation/Daily Mirror poll, Labour is four points ahead on 35 per cent, compared to the Tories on 31 per cent, Ukip on 15, the Lib Dems on nine and the SNP and Greens both on four. Panelbase has conducted an online poll, which suggests Labour has a six-point lead at 37 per cent and the Conservatives are on 31 per cent. TNS has also released a poll which puts Labour ahead by three points on 33 per cent, compared to 30 per cent for the Tories.

Ed Miliband has long been considered the Conservatives' main electoral asset. Certainly, Simon Danczuk touched a nerve when he described his party leader as a liability only a fortnight ago. But as the election nears, is the Labour leader beginning to turn his personal fortunes around? Polling from YouGov shows a fascinating trend. Voter approval of Miliband’s performance as Labour leader has improved from a dire state in late-November last year, at net -56%, to the most recent level of -26% last week. With the election campaign underway, a significant chunk of the electorate appear to have given the Labour leader a second look. Indeed, his net approval rating improved by 10 points after the "hell, yes!

Ed Miliband's so-called ‘Paxo bounce’ in the opinion polls is ebbing away. The polls out this evening have the Conservatives either level pegging with Labour or slightly ahead. Tonight’s latest from YouGov/The Sun has both parties neck and neck, with the Conservatives and Labour on 35 per cent — a three point rise for the Tories on Sunday — while Ukip is on 12 per cent, the Lib Dems on eight and the Greens on five. In his weekly national poll, Lord Ashcroft has the Tories two points ahead on 36 per cent, up three points from last week. The Tory pollster has Labour on 34 per cent, Ukip on ten, the Lib Dems on six and the Greens on five.

Just two weeks ago, senior Conservatives were saying that 'crossover' had been reached: that the Tories were ahead in the polls and that the lead would slowly build. Last week, the lead evaporated. Tomorrow, a YouGov/Sunday Times poll puts Labour four points ahead. Cameron's bizarre pre-resignation on Monday and a rather lacklustre performance in what passed for the television debate on Thursday seems to have had an effect. Sure, they were watched by only 3 million people vs. 10 million for the 2010 debates - but the word gets out. Jeremy Paxman performed very well, Ed Miliband quite well, Cameron less well. And yes, that's the Cameron already talking about his retirement, as if he has already mentally checked out.

Two polls out today have the Conservatives and Labour neck and neck, while another has Labour ahead by two points. Lord Ashcroft’s national poll has the two main parties at 33 per cent — both up on last week — while Ukip is on 12 per cent, the Lib Dems on eight and Greens on five. Tonight’s YouGov /Sun poll has a similar outlook, with the Tories and Labour tied on 34 per cent, Ukip on 12, the Lib Dems eight and Greens six. Populus, however, has Labour two points ahead on 33 per cent, putting the Conservatives on 31 per cent, Ukip on 16, the Lib Dems on nine and Greens on five. The polls have moved around a little last seven days, but not in any particular direction.

The Tories have pushed ahead of Labour again after George Osborne's successful Budget. In tonight's poll from YouGov/The Sun, the Conservatives are ahead by two points on 35 per cent while Labour are on 33 per cent. The Lib Dems have seen no shift, remaining steady on eight per cent, while Ukip is on 13 per cent and the Greens on six per cent. Budgets always tend to produce an immediate polling bounce for the incumbent party — assuming the Budget isn't badly received. The Tories, though, will be pleased that they are back in the lead after falling behind Labour in the past week. As with all the recent polls, it's worth noting that this lead, and the movements in this poll, remain within the margin of error.

Another week, another set of polls that put Labour and the Tories on an almost level footing. In his weekly national poll, Lord Ashcroft has the Conservatives two points ahead on 31 per cent — down three points from last week — while Labour are on 29 per cent. Today’s Guardian/ICM poll also has the Conservatives slightly ahead, by one point, while Labour has jumped three points to 35 per cent. But the latest The Sun/YouGov’s poll tonight shows the opposite: this poll has Labour two points ahead of the Tories, who are down to 32 per cent. Another poll from Populus yesterday put the two main parties on 34 per cent each. Two weeks to go until the election campaign properly begins and there is still no clear frontrunner.

This was a landmark week in this long election campaign. It was the first this year in which two pollsters (YouGov and Lord Ashcroft) each posted a Conservative lead outside of the margin of error. A 4 per cent lead for the blues may not sound like much – but it represents the largest Conservative lead on YouGov in more than three years. Indeed, of the 12 polls published so far this March, Labour have led in just 4 – compared to 27 leads out of 39 throughout February. It may be nothing. But I somehow suspect otherwise. If you said to me following the 2010 election that Ukip would have been on 15 per cent, the Liberal Democrats would have collapsed to single figures – and still, Labour would fail to have a poll lead – I wouldn't have believed you.