Uk politics

Theresa May's Christmas holidays will hold little in the way of festive cheer for the Prime Minister. In order to win last week's confidence vote, May had to make a number of promises that will be difficult to keep. Top of that list is her pledge to win back the support of the DUP, the party's confidence and supply partners. Relations between the DUP and the government hit a low earlier this month owing to the fact No.10 pressed ahead with a backstop arrangement which Arlene Foster's party say they cannot support. This led many Tory MPs to question whether they could support the deal given that it would also most likely spell the end of the party's confidence and supply agreement and therefore mean an early election.

The past few months have been testing for the so-called special relationship. President Trump's visit to the UK ended in disaster for Theresa May when the US President gave an interview to the Sun in which he declared that her proposed Brexit deal would kill any chance of a UK/US trade deal. However, not all Cabinet ministers had a wholly bad experience. On Tuesday night, Mr S headed along to Jeremy Hunt's Foreign Office Christmas reception at Lancaster House – also known as the 'Foreign Secretary's leadership launch,' according to a fellow Cabinet minister. In his speech, Hunt told guests how his own relationship with Trump had flourished on that visit. The reason? It's not that Hunt hit it off with Trump in person.

A predictably lively Cabinet meeting today as ministers discussed no-deal planning. Jeremy Hunt said that EU attitudes were hardening because they could see a second referendum coming into view, in part, because of the speculation that people around the Cabinet table were indulging in it. The Foreign Secretary warned that a failure to deliver Brexit would be as devastating for the Tories as the Lib Dems’s failure on tuition fees was to them. Chris Grayling, the Transport Secretary, railed against the Treasury approvals process. He complained that because of it, the government had missed the boat and not booked as much ferry capacity as it wanted. Michael Gove complained about the inefficiency of the borders delivery group.

Christmas – the time for peace on earth and goodwill to all men. It's also the time of year for giving. Except that is if you're Clive Lewis. The Labour MP – and sometime Corbynista – has managed to raise eyebrows in Parliament over his attempt at a Christmas bash. While the bulk of Christmas drinks events in Parliament come with warm wine, crisps and the odd G n T, Lewis's Christmas bash could be described as less generous on the catering front. Mr S understands that guests invited to his drinks this week were asked to bring... their own refreshments and snacks. Still, it's merrier than anything the Leader's Office are planning. Jeremy Corbyn is yet to send out an invite for Christmas drinks for hacks.

How does Theresa May break the Brexit logjam? Well, as I write in the Sun this morning, there are three ways to do this being discussed by Cabinet Ministers—the situation is now such that ministers don’t feel there’s anything disloyal about discussing contingency plans. The first option would see the government back an amendment to May’s deal when it comes to the Commons for a vote in January. The government would accept an amendment that added a sunset clause to the backstop, this would mean that it would expire after a defined period of time unless parliament voted to keep it going. With that change, May’s deal would have a fighting chance of passing the Commons. Some in government think that this might just be enough to win over the DUP.

For once, I think Jean Claude-Juncker might have a point. “Nebulous” was a pretty good description of Theresa May’s mission to Brussels. What, exactly, was she expecting from EU leaders that was also going to please her own backbenchers? She must have known the EU would stonewall her over the backstop. She seemed merely to be asking for ‘reassurances’ rather than a legal guarantee that Britain could not be trapped in the backstop – in spite of knowing full well that reassurances are not going to be enough to win over her Commons critics. To adapt Winston Churchill, May’s strategy has become a nebula trapped inside a smog, hidden within a miasma.  Yet there is such as easy way out of the mess.

After a nightmare EU Council summit, Theresa May attempted to put on a brave face in her summit press conference. The Prime Minister told hacks that despite the fact the EU had refused to agree to her request for a 12 month limit to the backstop, progress had been made. As for that heated exchange between May and Jean Claude Juncker in which she appeared to call the European Commission president out for describing her as nebulous, that was merely the type of 'robust' conversation good friends can have. While there is reason to believe Juncker was being disingenuous in calling May 'nebulous' over her requests (the UK side insist the EU side know what it wants), this press conference did manage to fall into the nebulous category.

Here is the measure of Theresa May’s failure last night, according to an observer of her request to EU leaders for “assurances” that UK membership of the EU backstop would be finite and of short duration. They were ready to help. They assumed a process of officials agreeing a text over coming week would start today, to give her the necessary words that would persuade Tory and DUP critics of her deal to ultimately support it. But it was during the course of questioning her that they concluded such a process – such an extension of talks – would be a total waste of time. Why? Well according to one observer of the conversation between May and the EU27 leaders, “she could not say what would actually deliver a majority in parliament for her”.