Uk politics

Monday

Matthew Lynn

Why business and the City should speak out against a second referendum

Parliament is deadlocked. The cabinet is split down the middle and Brussels won’t compromise on the deal it has already offered to the Prime Minister. As the clock ticks steadily towards March 29th, there seems little way out of the impasse surrounding our tortured exit from the European Union. No one can agree on how to leave, or how to stay either. Against that backdrop, it is probably no great surprise that a second referendum is gaining momentum. It is at least a way out of the mess, and possibly a more decisive one than any of the alternatives. Theresa May has spoken out against that today, even if many

Robert Peston

Can David Cameron rescue Theresa May from her Brexit crisis?

If you want a symbol of the catastrophe Theresa May faces over Brexit here it is: her predecessor David Cameron is advising her how to get some kind route out of the EU – that isn’t the fast one over the cliff – through Parliament. This is like the Pope asking the Chief Rabbi on the true meaning of the Eucharist: when Theresa May became Prime Minister she defined herself by defenestrating all things and people of a Cameroonish hue (including, most notoriously – and some would argue most self-destructively – packing Osborne off to the backbenches). But now the former prime minister has become her personal Brexit-crisis adviser, as she desperately

Brendan O’Neill

Leo Varadkar is being played like a fiddle by Brussels

A few decades ago, Irish people would march through the streets of London to holler at the British government: ‘Hands off Ireland!’ As an Irishman, I wish Irish people would now take to the streets of Dublin to say to Leo Varadkar’s government: ‘Hands off Britain!’ For Varadkar’s meddling in British politics, his and his minions’ attempts to scupper Britain’s break from the European Union, is profoundly anti-democratic. What we have here is a foreign leader interfering in Britain’s domestic, democratic affairs. It was wrong when the British did that to Ireland, and it is wrong for the Irish now to do the same to Brexit Britain. The way Varadkar,

Sunday

Matthew Taylor

Sunday shows round-up: loss of a confidence vote

Liam Fox – Parliament could have a free vote on Brexit The International Trade Secretary joined Andrew Marr this morning to discuss Brexit’s next steps following a turbulent week which saw the Prime Minister win a vote of confidence by 200 votes to 117. With the date for Parliament’s ‘meaningful vote’ on the Brexit deal now pushed back until mid-January, Liam Fox entertained a potential course of action still open to the government: AM: Shouldn’t Tory MPs… be allowed a free vote? LF: Well that’s not something that we have considered. I have to say, personally I wouldn’t have a huge problem with Parliament as a whole having a say

Saturday

Ivan Rogers

The nine lessons of Brexit

The stakes could not be higher now. We face the biggest political crisis for at least a couple of generations. The risks are now both a democratic crisis and an economic one. We just cannot go on as we have been: evading and obfuscating choices – indeed frequently denying, against all evidence, that there are unavoidable choices. And the public will understandably not, for a very long time, forgive a political class which on all sides of the divide fails to level with it on the choices being made. This feels a rather unseasonal theme but as we are approaching Christmas I thought I would therefore talk about nine lessons

James Forsyth

Where does May go from here?

How does Theresa May break the Brexit logjam? Well, as I write in the Sun this morning, there are three ways to do this being discussed by Cabinet Ministers—the situation is now such that ministers don’t feel there’s anything disloyal about discussing contingency plans. The first option would see the government back an amendment to May’s deal when it comes to the Commons for a vote in January. The government would accept an amendment that added a sunset clause to the backstop, this would mean that it would expire after a defined period of time unless parliament voted to keep it going. With that change, May’s deal would have a

Ross Clark

The simple solution to Theresa May’s Brexit dilemma

For once, I think Jean Claude-Juncker might have a point. “Nebulous” was a pretty good description of Theresa May’s mission to Brussels. What, exactly, was she expecting from EU leaders that was also going to please her own backbenchers? She must have known the EU would stonewall her over the backstop. She seemed merely to be asking for ‘reassurances’ rather than a legal guarantee that Britain could not be trapped in the backstop – in spite of knowing full well that reassurances are not going to be enough to win over her Commons critics. To adapt Winston Churchill, May’s strategy has become a nebula trapped inside a smog, hidden within

Friday

Steerpike

Watch: Juncker vs May, Part II

Oh dear. Theresa May has had a wretched time at the EU Council summit – not helped by the face Jean-Claude Juncker appeared to take a personal swipe at the Prime Minister by calling her nebulous. The pair clashed this morning over the apparent comments. Now the European Commission President has attempted to smooth things over. Only Mr S suspects he may have done the opposite. Asked in his press conference, what the pair said to one another when May confronted him, Juncker said they ‘were not dancing’ in reference to Theresa May’s ‘Dancing Queen’ days. He insisted he did not mean that May was ‘nebulous’ – the comment was

Katy Balls

A nebulous press conference: Theresa May insists progress made on backstop

After a nightmare EU Council summit, Theresa May attempted to put on a brave face in her summit press conference. The Prime Minister told hacks that despite the fact the EU had refused to agree to her request for a 12 month limit to the backstop, progress had been made. As for that heated exchange between May and Jean Claude Juncker in which she appeared to call the European Commission president out for describing her as nebulous, that was merely the type of ‘robust’ conversation good friends can have. While there is reason to believe Juncker was being disingenuous in calling May ‘nebulous’ over her requests (the UK side insist

Robert Peston

Theresa May now faces a humiliating choice over Brexit

Here is the measure of Theresa May’s failure last night, according to an observer of her request to EU leaders for “assurances” that UK membership of the EU backstop would be finite and of short duration. They were ready to help. They assumed a process of officials agreeing a text over coming week would start today, to give her the necessary words that would persuade Tory and DUP critics of her deal to ultimately support it. But it was during the course of questioning her that they concluded such a process – such an extension of talks – would be a total waste of time. Why? Well according to one

Matthew Lynn

The myth of the Brexit cliff edge

The ports will be clogged up with lorries. The shelves at Tesco will be empty. Doctors will be rationing antibiotics, and the army will be called out to deliver food. As we approach the deadline for our departure from the European Union, as the Prime Minister returns empty handed yet again from yet another catastrophic round of negotiations in Brussels, and as the cliff-edge gets closer and closer, the conventional wisdom is that the pressure on Britain to agree to something – anything! – becomes more and more intense. And yet, as so often in the through-the-looking glass world of Brexit, that conventional wisdom is a bit off target. And

Robert Peston

Theresa May’s catastrophic night in Brussels

It has been a catastrophic night for the Prime Minister here in Brussels. She was rebuffed by EU leaders in her request for a few weeks of fresh work by officials to formulate words of what she called “reassurance”, such that Tory Brexiter and DUP MPs could be confident that the backstop they hate would only ever be short lived if implemented. “We do not want the UK to think there can be any form of renegotiation whatsoever” said EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. This means that the PM knows that, as and when she puts her Brexit plan to the Commons for a vote, more than 100 of her

Katy Balls

Brussels reject Theresa May’s plea for backstop concessions

Theresa May’s week has gone from bad to worse. In order to win the confidence vote tabled against her on Wednesday, May had to make several promises to her MPs: not to fight the next election, to get the DUP back on side – and to find a legally binding solution to the Irish backstop. The latter pledge appears to have already hit the buffers after a disastrous night for May at the EU council summit. The Prime Minister attended the summit on Wednesday evening in the hope of securing new concessions to her Brexit deal. She asked the EU 27 to ‘work together intensely’ to tweak the deal –

Thursday

Katy Balls

Tory pressure mounts on May to axe Karen Bradley

How can Theresa May regain the confidence of the 117 Tory MPs who voted against her leadership? A big part of May’s pitch to her party on Wednesday night was that she would repair relations with the DUP – after the confidence and supply agreement broke down over the backstop. One idea now gaining momentum with senior Conservatives of how to do that is to dump Karen Bradley as Northern Ireland secretary, as part of a mini-reshuffle to show May is listening to MPs’ concerns. After the Prime Minister limped home in Wednesday’s confidence vote, there is deep unrest over May’s leadership. Rather than quash the Brexit rebels, it’s become

Isabel Hardman

Tory whips had already planned to reinstate Charlie Elphicke before confidence vote

MPs have been expressing their fury today that the vote of no confidence in Theresa May allowed two suspended Tories to rejoin the party. Andrew Griffiths and Charlie Elphicke had both had the Conservative whip removed over claims of inappropriate sexual behaviour, but were reinstated yesterday so that they could vote. Labour’s Shadow Women and Equalities Minister Dawn Butler described it as a ‘betrayal of women’, adding ‘how can Theresa May call herself a feminist when she lets an MP who was suspended back into the Conservative party to vote for her in the leadership challenge?’ Tory sources last night said both men had returned to the party ‘for the

Robert Peston

Theresa May’s Brexit aim is no longer Mission Impossible

Politics is all about words, which only sometimes mean what they seem to say. So if you took what the DUP leader in Westminster said on my show last night you would think that just maybe there is a route through the current parliamentary chaos for the PM towards a Brexit deal that MPs could approve. The DUP’s Nigel Dodds told me: “Well I think that the Prime Minister if I may say so maybe is extending a bit of an olive branch to us in the sense that she is now sitting down with us, acknowledging that we have an issue, acknowledging that it’s not just an issue we

John Osullivan

Theresa May has won but at the price of boxing herself in

Theresa May’s victory in the 1922 committee confidence vote is one of those boxing matches that leaves both sides preparing for an early rematch—with the challengers somewhat more eager for one than the champion. The defeated Noes got 37 per cent of the vote, according to the numerate Tim Stanley, of an electorate that provided a 100 per cent turnout of Tory MPs. That’s seventeen votes short of a two-thirds majority for the Prime Minister compared to John Major’s achievement of getting four votes more than that traditionally decisive margin in 1995. Her critics got about the same percentage of the non-payroll vote. Given that this time Brexit was also

Wednesday

James Forsyth

Victory? No, yesterday’s result weakens May’s authority still further

Theresa May has survived the vote, but her authority is weakened still further. More than a third of Tory MPs have voted against her and this is after she pledged not to fight the next election and to get legally enforceable changes to the backstop. If May had kept the number of those voting against her below 100, it would have been a good result for her. If she had kept it to below 80, it would have strengthened her position considerably. But anything over 105 was always going to be tricky for her as that meant a 1/3rd of her MPs didn’t have confidence in her. This became truer

Steerpike

Watch: Anna Soubry rows with fellow Tory MP

Theresa May has survived a vote of confidence but the Tory party is not a happy place. Anna Soubry and Robert Buckland have just had a very public row on Sky News. It’s safe to say the two Tory MPs did not see eye-to-eye about what should happen next. Buckland told Soubry that it was ‘time to move on’. But Soubry said the PM was just offering more of the same ’empty rhetoric’: Soubry: ‘Let me finish please’ Buckland: ‘This is time for compromise not for people taking artificial lines and looking for nirvana’ Soubry later appeared to mutter that her colleague’s words were ‘absolute rubbish’. Oh dear..

Isabel Hardman

After a day of high drama, nothing has changed

Even before the result of the Tory no confidence vote was announced, the mood in Committee Room 14 was rather jovial. Chief Whip Julian Smith appeared minutes before the result, looking both exhausted and happy. Nerves were sufficiently calm for someone to crack a joke in the pause between Sir Graham Brady arriving and him starting to speak. ‘Let us pray!’ they quipped, sending the room into fits of giggles. In fact, the mood was almost eerily cheery, a bit like someone who has spent all night awake drinking coffee. When Brady announced that the Conservative party does indeed have confidence in Theresa May, the Tory MPs present broke into