Uk politics

Wednesday

James Forsyth

The two problems with Dominic Grieve’s Brexit amendment

Another day, another defeat for the government—this time on Dominic Grieve’s amendment, which requires Theresa May to set out within three sitting days what she’ll do next if the meaningful vote doesn’t pass. The significance of this is that Grieve thinks that the motion the government would put down would be amendable, so MPs would be able to tell the government what they want to happen. But what does this mean in practise? Well, the first thing to note is that there isn’t currently a majority for anything in the Commons. This suggest that no amendment—whether it be for a second referendum or Norway Plus—would be able to pass the

Ross Clark

The forgotten voters who might win the next election for Corbyn

Before Brexit: The Uncivil War is allowed to drift off into the ether, there is an important point which needs to be made, and yet which has not been addressed in all the reams of comment which have written about it. There is a gaping hole in its narrative. That narrative seems straightforward enough: Vote Leave won the referendum because its leader, Dominic Cummings, and his team of geeks realised that they could tap into a vast, lost constituency of Britons with whom politicians and traditional political campaigning methods had lost touch. This they did by analysing Facebook and other social media data and then hitting the lost voters –

Steerpike

Can Martin Selmayr’s denials be trusted?

Martin Selmayr, the so-called ‘monster’ of Brussels, has reacted angrily to claims that he set out to punish Britain over Brexit. Selmayr, controversially elevated last year to become secretary general of the European Commission, was said to have told a meeting in Brussels in November that ‘the power is with us’ in Brexit trade talks. The claim was repeated in a detailed article by Tory MP Greg Hands, who sets out allegations that Selmayr and Sabine Weyand, another top EU official, crafted the Brexit deal in order to inflict maximum pain on Britain. Needless to say, Selmayr isn’t happy. This morning, he shared a link to Hands’ Conservative Home piece

Tuesday

Bill Cash

What ‘Brexit: The Uncivil War’ got wrong

Brexit: The Uncivil War offered a wacky portrayal of the Vote Leave operation. I was intrigued to find myself portrayed at a board meeting which I never attended because I was not a member of the board and certainly not on the Vote Leave WhatsApp groups. Even a cursory glance of the records of Vote Leave would have revealed this. I received no contact from the makers of the programme at all. Beyond that, I always had the gravest reservations about the advertising on the bus and on the way the immigration issue was handled. I certainly don’t believe that the referendum result was the product of some quirky genius.

Ollie Lewis

Brexit: The Uncivil War didn’t reveal the truth about Vote Leave

Brexit: The Uncivil War makes a big claim right at the start: to show us what really happened in the EU referendum two years ago, and to give us insight into the inner workings of the Vote Leave campaign. It’s an enticing offer but (ironically for a film about allegedly dodgy campaign pledges) I’m not really sure it ever really delivers on this promise. Now, I admit that I’m as far away as possible from a ‘neutral’ or ‘impartial’ reviewer. Having campaigned for Brexit long before ‘Brexit’ was even a word, and having served as the Research Director of Vote Leave, I realise it’s pretty much impossible for me to approach this

Nick Cohen

What Corbyn’s far left has in common with Trump and the Brexit right | 8 January 2019

Even though Jeremy Corbyn and the men and women who support him are often shabby and occasionally reactionary figures, the rarest criticism you hear of them is criticism from the left. Political commentary in Britain runs like water through pipes. Conventional opinion holds that if you are left wing, you support the Labour leadership, and if you are not, you don’t. Even though there is an essential left case to be made against the degeneration of Labour into conspiracy theory and personality cults, authors who make it are ignored because they do not fit into the familiar pattern. More than any formal censorship, this control of thinking is the most

Steerpike

Has Will Straw finally found the recipe for political success?

Will Straw hasn’t had much joy when it comes to politics. In 2015, Straw tried – and failed – to follow in his father’s footsteps by becoming a Labour MP, losing out to his Tory rival Jake Berry in Rossendale and Darwen. A year later, Straw’s luck hadn’t improved: in his role as executive director of Britain Stronger in Europe, he led the official Remain campaign to defeat in the EU referendum. But now, it seems, Straw may have finally found the recipe for winning. In an article in the Guardian under the headline ‘I was part of the remain campaign. Here’s how to win a people’s vote’, Straw offer

Robert Peston

Has Theresa May got a Brexit plan B?

Here is what I have learned about this morning’s cabinet meeting: 1) The Prime Minister is still refusing to rule out a no-deal Brexit, in spite of pressure to do so from a number of ministers – but most notably from the Work and Pensions Secretary of State, Amber Rudd. In respect of May’s attitude to no-deal, the PM was “inscrutable as always”, according to one of those in the meeting. But another has told me that Theresa May confirmed she would make a statement if her deal is – as expected – rejected by MPs next week. No minister expects her to announce at that juncture that the UK

Monday

Sam Gyimah-Mp

It’s time to think the unthinkable on Brexit

Make no mistake, Britain is on the brink. This week Parliament will re-start the debate on the Prime Minister’s Brexit Deal, having lost a month. In all likelihood, the House of Commons will vote down a deal that deserves to be defeated. Parliament is deadlocked. Our country is bitterly divided. It is no exaggeration to say we face the greatest political and constitutional emergency we’ve had in peacetime. This is not in response to any external threat or challenge. The tragedy is we have done this to ourselves. But, because of that, we can step back from the brink. It doesn’t have to be like this. There is still time

Steerpike

Brexit: The Uncivil War – fact or fiction?

After months of controversy, James Graham’s new Brexit drama finally aired tonight, portraying the bitterly fought campaign to win the Brexit referendum. Defying the expectations of many, the show has been praised for its reasonably accurate portrayal of events, and for striking a balanced tone between Leavers and Remainers. But as is normal when a drama is based on real-life, as the closing credits rolled viewers could easily be left wondering: how much of what took place was real, and how much was wrong, exaggerated or distorted? Happily for those wondering, Mr S is on hand to distinguish the fact from the fiction: Vote Leave’s dodgy data Following the Observer’s investigation

James Forsyth

Theresa May’s Brexit deal still looks doomed

Taking the temperature in Westminster today, it appears that Theresa May doesn’t have much more of a chance of winning the meaningful vote than she did when she pulled it before Christmas. The mood has improved a bit for her deal, but by nowhere near enough for her to pass it. Indeed, interestingly the full bore Brexiteers appear to be embracing ‘no deal’ more firmly than before. Boris Johnson’s Daily Telegraph column today is striking for the willingness with which it embraces no deal, rather than just arguing for a pivot to Canada. I understand that the Government expects the EU’s pre-vote help to come towards the end of this

Steerpike

Do these 83 MPs understand how no-deal Brexit works?

This morning a group of more than 200 MPs from several parties made waves by penning a letter to the Prime Minister, urging her to rule out Britain leaving the European Union without a deal. In the text, they argued that a ‘mechanism that would ensure a no-deal Brexit could not take place’ would have the support of parliament. That may be so, but Mr Steerpike was curious to note how few of the MPs who signed the letter seem to actually understand the Brexit process. Unfortunately for them, unless an alternative is actively proposed – such as revoking Brexit or accepting May’s deal – no deal can’t be ruled

Fraser Nelson

The three scenes from Ch4’s Brexit film that show why Remain lost | 7 January 2019

As soon as Channel 4 announced Benedict Cumberbatch had been cast as Dominic Cummings in its Brexit film, a hatchet job was expected. Some might still see it this way. I found it balanced, gripping, and at times funny, even moving. Plenty will be written about which parts were accurate and which not, but this was drama, not documentary. The story it tells is perhaps the most important story of our times: how politicians had become stuck in a late-90s time warp using a Clinton-era playbook, and thought Remain would easily win the referendum. But they lost because politics changes and the new energy was coming from forgotten voters who

Isabel Hardman

The NHS 10-year plan is a metaphor for Theresa May’s government

Today’s NHS 10-year plan is the health service’s response to the £20.5 billion funding boost announced by ministers last year. The Prime Minister is unveiling further details of the plan this morning, with NHS England chief executive Simon Stevens doing his own broadcast tour to sell it. He argues that the plan ‘tackles head-on the pressures our staff face’ and also ‘sets a practical, costed, phased route map for the NHS’s priorities for care quality and outcomes improvement for the decade ahead’. The plan is a good metaphor for the May government, too: its announcement was delayed from its original launch date of late autumn, there is a £1 billion

Lloyd Evans

‘Brexit: The Uncivil War’ will please both Leavers and Remainers

It starts with a balding weirdo locked in a cupboard ranting about mythological abstractions. This is Dominic Cummings, the key figure in Channel 4’s Brexit film, The Uncivil War, and the opening scene is designed to overcome a major hurdle. How to make the audience – half of whom loathe Brexit – feel sympathy for the man credited with making it happen. Trapping him in a neon-lit cell with only his thoughts for company turns him into a tormented martyr. Next we see him being sized up as a potential director of the Leave campaign. Deep in his guts he loathes politicians – and the entire Westminster establishment – especially

Mary Wakefield

Benedict Cumberbatch on playing my husband, Dominic Cummings

Imagine looking at a photo of a stranger and feeling in response, quite naturally, the sort of happy affection you might feel towards a spouse. Well, it’s weird. In July this year, when Benedict Cumberbatch was filming Channel 4’s upcoming Brexit film (Brexit: The Uncivil War) a friend sent me some photos by text message, tabloid snaps from the set. Benedict plays my husband Dominic Cummings, director of the Leave campaign, and the shots were long-lens and hazy: Ben/Dom pushing his son on a swing; Ben/Dom kissing his wife. The real son-of-Dom and I were halfway through our Rice Krispies when the photos came through and I remember how taken

Sunday

James Forsyth

New Year, same old May

Theresa May doesn’t yet have anything concrete to offer MPs who have concerns about her Brexit deal. On Marr this morning, May repeatedly talked about how she was seeking ‘assurances’ on the backstop. But she clearly hasn’t got them yet. Interestingly, May indicated that the assurances she’s looking for are around a start date for the new relationship; rather than a time limit or clearer exit mechanism. This would mean that the backstop would not be ‘indefinite’ as there’d be a start date for the future trade relationship. However, this approach immediately raises two questions. First, would the future relationship apply to the whole of the UK or just Great

Saturday

Robert Peston

Theresa May will soon face the decision of her life over Brexit

The Prime Minister does have a strategy to prevent what she sees as the chaos of a no-deal Brexit. The flaw in it is that the strategy probably has a shelf life of just over one week. Because her strategy is to persuade MPs to back her version of leaving the EU in a vote on 15 or 16 January, and in the words of one of her senior ministers: “I will be shot for telling you this but we are going to lose that vote”. So what then? Well, amazingly, no one around her – not her ministers, not her officials – seem to know. Why not? “She won’t

Ross Clark

Will Brexit really hit house prices?

On any other day of the week the Guardian is – with some justification – complaining about a housing crisis, with millions of young people priced-out of ever owning – or even renting – a decent home. Now, however, it seems to be treating with alarm news that prices are stagnating. ‘UK house prices take pre-Brexit hit, says Nationwide’ declared a headline this week – followed by news that house prices have, in fact, risen by 0.5 per cent over the past 12 months. That is a lot lower than we have become used to in recent decades, but isn’t it a good thing if rampant house price inflation has

Friday

Steerpike

Jeremy Corbyn condemns the people of Milton Keynes

Jeremy Corbyn has a message for the people of Milton Keynes: I condemn you. The Labour leader delivered his criticism at an event in 2011 after voters in the town booted out pro-Palestinian Labour MP Phyllis Starkey. He told the audience: ‘I condemn the people of Milton Keynes for the mistakes that they made in the May election but they will have a chance for (sic) correct their mistakes hopefully in the very near future.’ Unfortunately at the two general elections since Corbyn made his comments, the people of Milton Keynes failed to learn their lesson by twice electing two Tory MPs. Admittedly, at the most recent snap election Labour